533 Fleetwood St · Warm Mineral Springs, FL 34287

$128,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 192 Days on market

Built 1982 3,796 sqft lot $8/mo HOA ↓ 8% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

JUST REDUCED BY $10,000! 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom, 1,200 sq. ft. home located in a desirable 55+ WATERFRONT COMMUNITY with an incredibly low lease fee of only $99 PER YEAR with no additional lot rent! Harbor Cove sits alongside the scenic Myakka River and boating and fishing enthusiasts will love the rare 90-slip marina with direct access to the Gulf. Inside, the home's bright Florida room is surrounded by windows and provides the perfect space for relaxing or dining while enjoying peaceful outdoor views. There is a spacious living room, a designated dining area with a built-in hutch, and a kitchen featuring a breakfast bar and convenient pass-through to the Florida room. The primary suite includes a king-sized bed, dual closets, built in storage plus a private ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. A good-sized guest bedroom offers a queen bed, dual closets, one of which is a walk-in, and easy access to a nearby full bath. Enjoy outdoor living on the huge, screened lanai with tile flooring—perfect for entertaining friends or evening relaxation. Additional features include a shed with washer, dryer, and workbench, a bonus storage room behind the home, plus a new roof installed in 2022, updated flooring and other improvements. The home is comfortable as-is but would benefit from general cosmetic updates and a few repairs, offering buyers the opportunity to refresh the space to their own style. A golf cart is included for cruising the community and enjoying the natural surroundings. Harbor Cove offers an active lifestyle with a clubhouse, two pools, spa, billiards room, bocce and shuffleboard courts, plus an optional fitness room and pickleball/tennis courts. A full calendar of social events ensures there are plenty of activities such as dances, picnics, card games, trivia nights, golf cart parades and more. All of this is just minutes from beaches, shopping, dining, farmers markets, several MLS spring training facilities, and quality medical care. Schedule your private showing today and start enjoying the lifestyle you deserve.

Key facts

• Scenic myakka river
• Clubhouse
• 90-slip marina

Tags

• FLORIDA ROOM
• WATERFRONT COMMUNITY
• SCENIC MYAKKA RIVER
• LARGE COVERED SCREENED LANAI
• 90-SLIP MARINA
• CLUBHOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-43/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $127k (0.5% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#604 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Sarasota (urban): math 63% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #7 of 73 in FL (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 852 active listings in the ZIP; 7,466 units permitted in Sarasota County in 2024 (2,138 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $885 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sarasota County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 192 days — a 12% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,640 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 192 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.16%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-25,100
• Equity at exit: $19,085

10-year hold

• IRR: -27.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-38,147
• Equity at exit: $11,067

Cash invested: $35,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34287

• Home prices YoY: -20.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 852
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,645 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$671
• Tax from tax record: −$144 /mo · $1,723/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$8
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$345
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,649

Max offer price $127,369

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,000
• Closing costs: $3,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $8 · $96/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $128,000 Active 192 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $128,000 Active 191 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $128,000 Active 190 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $128,000 Active 189 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,000 Active 187 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $128,000 Active 186 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $128,000 Active 184 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $128,000 Active 183 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $128,000 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $128,000 Active 178 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $128,000 Active 177 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $128,000 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $128,000 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $128,000 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-04-22
    price $129,000 2063-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2063 chars)

    JUST REDUCED BY $10,000! 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom, 1,200 sq. ft. home located in a desirable 55+ WATERFRONT COMMUNITY with an incredibly low lease fee of only $99 PER YEAR with no additional lot rent! Harbor Cove sits alongside the scenic Myakka River and boating and fishing enthusiasts will love the rare 90-slip marina with direct access to the Gulf. Inside, the home's bright Florida room is surrounded by windows and provides the perfect space for relaxing or dining while enjoying peaceful outdoor views. There is a spacious living room, a designated dining area with a built-in hutch, and a kitchen featuring a breakfast bar and convenient pass-through to the Florida room. The primary suite includes a king-sized bed, dual closets, built in storage plus a private ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. A good-sized guest bedroom offers a queen bed, dual closets, one of which is a walk-in, and easy access to a nearby full bath. Enjoy outdoor living on the huge, screened lanai with tile flooring—perfect for entertaining friends or evening relaxation. Additional features include a shed with washer, dryer, and workbench, a bonus storage room behind the home, plus a new roof installed in 2022, updated flooring and other improvements. The home is comfortable as-is but would benefit from general cosmetic updates and a few repairs, offering buyers the opportunity to refresh the space to their own style. A golf cart is included for cruising the community and enjoying the natural surroundings. Harbor Cove offers an active lifestyle with a clubhouse, two pools, spa, billiards room, bocce and shuffleboard courts, plus an optional fitness room and pickleball/tennis courts. A full calendar of social events ensures there are plenty of activities such as dances, picnics, card games, trivia nights, golf cart parades and more. All of this is just minutes from beaches, shopping, dining, farmers markets, several MLS spring training facilities, and quality medical care. Schedule your private showing today and start enjoying the lifestyle you deserve.

16. 2026-03-18
    price $139,000 2063-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2063 chars)

    JUST REDUCED BY $10,000! 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom, 1,200 sq. ft. home located in a desirable 55+ WATERFRONT COMMUNITY with an incredibly low lease fee of only $99 PER YEAR with no additional lot rent! Harbor Cove sits alongside the scenic Myakka River and boating and fishing enthusiasts will love the rare 90-slip marina with direct access to the Gulf. Inside, the home's bright Florida room is surrounded by windows and provides the perfect space for relaxing or dining while enjoying peaceful outdoor views. There is a spacious living room, a designated dining area with a built-in hutch, and a kitchen featuring a breakfast bar and convenient pass-through to the Florida room. The primary suite includes a king-sized bed, dual closets, built in storage plus a private ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. A good-sized guest bedroom offers a queen bed, dual closets, one of which is a walk-in, and easy access to a nearby full bath. Enjoy outdoor living on the huge, screened lanai with tile flooring—perfect for entertaining friends or evening relaxation. Additional features include a shed with washer, dryer, and workbench, a bonus storage room behind the home, plus a new roof installed in 2022, updated flooring and other improvements. The home is comfortable as-is but would benefit from general cosmetic updates and a few repairs, offering buyers the opportunity to refresh the space to their own style. A golf cart is included for cruising the community and enjoying the natural surroundings. Harbor Cove offers an active lifestyle with a clubhouse, two pools, spa, billiards room, bocce and shuffleboard courts, plus an optional fitness room and pickleball/tennis courts. A full calendar of social events ensures there are plenty of activities such as dances, picnics, card games, trivia nights, golf cart parades and more. All of this is just minutes from beaches, shopping, dining, farmers markets, several MLS spring training facilities, and quality medical care. Schedule your private showing today and start enjoying the lifestyle you deserve.

17. 2026-02-24
    price $149,000 2063-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2063 chars)

    JUST REDUCED BY $10,000! 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom, 1,200 sq. ft. home located in a desirable 55+ WATERFRONT COMMUNITY with an incredibly low lease fee of only $99 PER YEAR with no additional lot rent! Harbor Cove sits alongside the scenic Myakka River and boating and fishing enthusiasts will love the rare 90-slip marina with direct access to the Gulf. Inside, the home's bright Florida room is surrounded by windows and provides the perfect space for relaxing or dining while enjoying peaceful outdoor views. There is a spacious living room, a designated dining area with a built-in hutch, and a kitchen featuring a breakfast bar and convenient pass-through to the Florida room. The primary suite includes a king-sized bed, dual closets, built in storage plus a private ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. A good-sized guest bedroom offers a queen bed, dual closets, one of which is a walk-in, and easy access to a nearby full bath. Enjoy outdoor living on the huge, screened lanai with tile flooring—perfect for entertaining friends or evening relaxation. Additional features include a shed with washer, dryer, and workbench, a bonus storage room behind the home, plus a new roof installed in 2022, updated flooring and other improvements. The home is comfortable as-is but would benefit from general cosmetic updates and a few repairs, offering buyers the opportunity to refresh the space to their own style. A golf cart is included for cruising the community and enjoying the natural surroundings. Harbor Cove offers an active lifestyle with a clubhouse, two pools, spa, billiards room, bocce and shuffleboard courts, plus an optional fitness room and pickleball/tennis courts. A full calendar of social events ensures there are plenty of activities such as dances, picnics, card games, trivia nights, golf cart parades and more. All of this is just minutes from beaches, shopping, dining, farmers markets, several MLS spring training facilities, and quality medical care. Schedule your private showing today and start enjoying the lifestyle you deserve.

18. 2025-12-08
    listed $159,000 Active 2063-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2063 chars)

    JUST REDUCED BY $10,000! 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom, 1,200 sq. ft. home located in a desirable 55+ WATERFRONT COMMUNITY with an incredibly low lease fee of only $99 PER YEAR with no additional lot rent! Harbor Cove sits alongside the scenic Myakka River and boating and fishing enthusiasts will love the rare 90-slip marina with direct access to the Gulf. Inside, the home's bright Florida room is surrounded by windows and provides the perfect space for relaxing or dining while enjoying peaceful outdoor views. There is a spacious living room, a designated dining area with a built-in hutch, and a kitchen featuring a breakfast bar and convenient pass-through to the Florida room. The primary suite includes a king-sized bed, dual closets, built in storage plus a private ensuite bath with a walk-in shower. A good-sized guest bedroom offers a queen bed, dual closets, one of which is a walk-in, and easy access to a nearby full bath. Enjoy outdoor living on the huge, screened lanai with tile flooring—perfect for entertaining friends or evening relaxation. Additional features include a shed with washer, dryer, and workbench, a bonus storage room behind the home, plus a new roof installed in 2022, updated flooring and other improvements. The home is comfortable as-is but would benefit from general cosmetic updates and a few repairs, offering buyers the opportunity to refresh the space to their own style. A golf cart is included for cruising the community and enjoying the natural surroundings. Harbor Cove offers an active lifestyle with a clubhouse, two pools, spa, billiards room, bocce and shuffleboard courts, plus an optional fitness room and pickleball/tennis courts. A full calendar of social events ensures there are plenty of activities such as dances, picnics, card games, trivia nights, golf cart parades and more. All of this is just minutes from beaches, shopping, dining, farmers markets, several MLS spring training facilities, and quality medical care. Schedule your private showing today and start enjoying the lifestyle you deserve.

19. 2005-12-22
    soldstatus $140,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,723 · $144/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,723 · $144/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,734
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,170
• − Property taxes: −$1,723
• − Insurance: −$5,758
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,579
• − Management: −$1,579
• − HOA: −$96
• − Depreciation: −$3,724
• Taxable loss: −$1,895
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$455
• After-tax cash flow: $412/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sarasota
• NCES district ID: 1201680
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,167
• Composite: 53.68/100
• National rank: #1428
• State rank: #7 of 73 in FL

Livability — Warm Mineral Springs

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #604
• US rank: #11606

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Warm Mineral Springs, FL
• County: Sarasota County · 448,376 people
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 25,929
• Household income: $63,464
• Rent vs Own: 19.1% rent · 80.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 522.0

Population outlook (Sarasota County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 452,380 people
• By 2030: 474,175 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 511,577 · +13.1%
• By 2050: 541,467 · +19.7%
• By 2075: 604,947 · +33.7%
• By 2100: 621,965 · +37.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 7% Asian 4% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Scotch-Irish 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Sarasota

• 2024 margin: R (+18.2) · D 40.5% · R 58.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.1pp toward R · 2008: -0.1pp · 2024: -18.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.2 2020: R+10.4 2016: R+11.6 2012: R+7.4 2008: R+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -70.89%
• Current HPI: 280.8484
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.26%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-7.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $129,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Price Changed $149,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-08 Listed $159,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2005-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $140,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,723 · -5.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.