661 - #3 Nubbin Ridge Rd · Lakeview, AR 72642

$32,500

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 95 Days on market

$36/sqft · 8% above area Est $30k · 9% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +3.7/15.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover your perfect retreat in this charming mobile home located in a serene community park, just a short drive to lake access on beautiful Bull Shoals Lake. This residence features updated appliances, cabinets and countertops plus the kitchen is also equipped with a gas stove and pantry for extra storage. With two cozy bedrooms, one of which includes a full bath, along with an additional half bath in the home for extra convenience. Step outside to a covered deck, ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The property includes a storage shed for your outdoor gear and a carport to keep your vehicle protected from the elements. Priced to sell quickly. Agents-Buyer must be park approved. Camera in use. Selling as is.

Key facts

• Updated appliances
• Covered deck
• Storage shed

Tags

• SERENE COMMUNITY PARK
• LAKE ACCESS
• UPDATED APPLIANCES
• GAS STOVE
• COVERED DECK
• STORAGE SHED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $32k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $422 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($818 rent vs $32k).
• Recommended offer: $30k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.9% vs local median 2.5% in Lakeview — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#88 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mountain Home School District (town): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #40 of 238 in AR (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 31 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Baxter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($225 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Baxter County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 8, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 95 days — a 9% lower offer ($30k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $29,575 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 95 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.52% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.87%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.62%
• DSCR: 3.47
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $29,950
• List price: $32,500
• Delta: 8.51%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
661 Nubbin Ridge Rd Lot 14	0.00mi	2/1.5	924 (+3%)	0mo	$29,900	$32	94
661 Nubbin Ridge Rd	0.00mi	2/1.5	924 (+3%)	0mo	$29,900	$32	94
661 - #51 Nubbin Ridge Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	938 (+5%)	3mo	$30,000	$32	88
661 Nubbin Ridge Rd	0.00mi	2/1.5	893 (-0%)	22mo	$25,500	$29	81
661- #52 Nubbin Ridge Rd	0.00mi	2/2.0	952 (+6%)	9mo	$26,500	$28	80
661- #17 Nubbin Ridge Rd	0.33mi	2/2.0	1,008 (+12%)	7mo	$55,000	$55	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 68.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.90×
• Total profit: $44,576
• Equity at exit: $29,279

10-year hold

• IRR: 62.1%
• Equity multiple: 13.11×
• Total profit: $110,169
• Equity at exit: $63,140

Cash invested: $9,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72642

• Home prices YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 31
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $818 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$170
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$41 /mo · $488/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$172
• Net cashflow: $422

Break-even live

Break-even rent $284

Max offer price $32,500

Occupancy floor 43%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,125
• Closing costs: $975
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $32,500 Active 95 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $32,500 Active 94 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $32,500 Active 93 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $32,500 Active 92 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $32,500 Active 91 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $32,500 Active 89 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $32,500 Active 88 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $32,500 Active 85 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $32,500 Active 84 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $32,500 Active 83 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $32,500 Active 80 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    price $32,500 Active 78 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 78 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 77 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 76 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $35,000 Active 75 DOM
17. 2026-03-12
    listed $35,000 Active 731-char remark

    Show marketing remark (731 chars)

    Discover your perfect retreat in this charming mobile home located in a serene community park, just a short drive to lake access on beautiful Bull Shoals Lake. This residence features updated appliances, cabinets and countertops plus the kitchen is also equipped with a gas stove and pantry for extra storage. With two cozy bedrooms, one of which includes a full bath, along with an additional half bath in the home for extra convenience. Step outside to a covered deck, ideal for morning coffee or evening relaxation. The property includes a storage shed for your outdoor gear and a carport to keep your vehicle protected from the elements. Priced to sell quickly. Agents-Buyer must be park approved. Camera in use. Selling as is.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,819
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,821
• − Property taxes: −$488
• − Insurance: −$162
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$785
• − Management: −$785
• − Depreciation: −$945
• Taxable income: $4,832
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,160
• After-tax cash flow: $3,902/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mountain Home School District
• NCES district ID: 0500043
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,966
• Composite: 37.4/100
• National rank: #4424
• State rank: #40 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lakeview

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #9722

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 1,724
• Population (ZIP): 1,724

Population outlook (Baxter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,886 people
• By 2030: 39,226 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 37,810 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 36,287 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 32,965 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 28,002 · -29.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Serbian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baxter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.9) · D 20.7% · R 77.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.3pp toward R · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -56.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.9 2020: R+53.3 2016: R+53.6 2012: R+44.0 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.66%
• Current HPI: 237.0425
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $35,000 MHMLS

Property tax history

+10.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $13 · +206.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.