806 S Nelson St · Fort Stockton, TX 79735

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,050 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 454 Days on market

Built 1960 4,835 sqft lot $81/sqft · 34% below area ↓ 39% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to a charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home. This property is fenced on two full lots and also located on a corner lot. Don't miss out on this opportunity to invest in a property with incredible potential.

Key facts

• Corner lot
• 4,835 sq ft lot
• Garage

Tags

• FENCED ON TWO FULL LOTS
• CORNER LOT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $48 ($575/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($975 rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#532 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Fort Stockton ISD (town): math 23% / reading 28% proficiency, ranked #709 of 826 in TX (top 86%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 10 units permitted in Pecos County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pecos County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 454 days — a 12% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $55k (39%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $74,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 454 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.42%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $226,039
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -62.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-10,623
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-4,922
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79735

• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $975 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,894/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$205
• Net cashflow: $48

Break-even live

Break-even rent $914

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 90%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $96	-5% $72	+0% $48	+5% $24	+10% $0
Rent	-10% $-29	-5% $9	+0% $48	+5% $86	+10% $125
Rate	-1.0pp $91	-0.5pp $70	base $48	+0.5pp $26	+1.0pp $4

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
902 N Missouri St Unit A Fort Stockton, TX	2.0	1.0	910	$975	$1.07	44d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $85,000 Active 454 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 452 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 451 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 450 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 449 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 447 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $85,000 Active 446 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 443 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $85,000 Active 442 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 441 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 440 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $85,000 Active 437 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 436 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 435 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 434 DOM
16. 2026-03-12
    price $85,000 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Welcome to a charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home. This property is fenced on two full lots and also located on a corner lot. Don't miss out on this opportunity to invest in a property with incredible potential.

17. 2026-01-17
    price $99,000 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Welcome to a charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home. This property is fenced on two full lots and also located on a corner lot. Don't miss out on this opportunity to invest in a property with incredible potential.

18. 2025-09-27
    price $110,000 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Welcome to a charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home. This property is fenced on two full lots and also located on a corner lot. Don't miss out on this opportunity to invest in a property with incredible potential.

19. 2025-09-01
    status Active 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Welcome to a charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home. This property is fenced on two full lots and also located on a corner lot. Don't miss out on this opportunity to invest in a property with incredible potential.

20. 2025-09-01
    historical 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Welcome to a charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home. This property is fenced on two full lots and also located on a corner lot. Don't miss out on this opportunity to invest in a property with incredible potential.

21. 2025-05-11
    price $120,000 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Welcome to a charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home. This property is fenced on two full lots and also located on a corner lot. Don't miss out on this opportunity to invest in a property with incredible potential.

22. 2025-03-23
    listed $140,000 Active 210-char remark

    Show marketing remark (210 chars)

    Welcome to a charming 3-bedroom, 1-bathroom home. This property is fenced on two full lots and also located on a corner lot. Don't miss out on this opportunity to invest in a property with incredible potential.

23. 1997-07-22
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,894 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,894 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥101°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,700
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$2,894
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$936
• − Management: −$936
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable loss: −$725
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$174
• After-tax cash flow: $749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Stockton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4820190
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $43,194
• Composite: 21.81/100
• National rank: #8247
• State rank: #709 of 826 in TX

Livability — Fort Stockton

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #532
• US rank: #10399

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fort Stockton, TX
• Population (ZIP): 12,962

Population outlook (Pecos County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,291 people
• By 2030: 17,999 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 19,729 · +14.1%
• By 2050: 21,655 · +25.2%
• By 2075: 26,049 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 27,196 · +57.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 23% White 17% Black 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 70%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 47% English-only · Spanish 51% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pecos

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.8) · D 27.0% · R 71.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -44.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.8 2020: R+39.3 2016: R+21.9 2012: R+22.2 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -77.34%
• Current HPI: 138.1106
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-39.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $85,000 ODMLS
• 2026-01-17 Price Changed $99,000 ODMLS
• 2025-09-27 Price Changed $110,000 ODMLS
• 2025-09-01 Relisted — ODMLS
• 2025-09-01 Delisted — ODMLS
• 2025-05-11 Price Changed $120,000 ODMLS
• 2025-03-23 Listed $140,000 ODMLS
• 1997-07-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+10.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,894 · +1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.