905 N Walnut St · Winnsboro, TX 75494

$199,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,584 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 2024 0.45 ac lot Est $217k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• ARV discount +11.2/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New construction home in Winnsboro offering 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with thoughtfully designed custom wood features throughout. From the detailed trim work to the handcrafted finishes, this home showcases quality craftsmanship while maintaining a warm, inviting feel. Situated on an oversized lot, the property provides ample outdoor space with room for entertaining, gardening, or future improvements. The functional floor plan offers comfortable living areas, well-appointed bedrooms, and modern finishes suited for both everyday living and hosting. Recently appraised at $275,000, this property presents an exceptional opportunity with built-in equity. Don’t miss your chance to own

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• Custom wood features
• Detailed trim work

Tags

• CUSTOM WOOD FEATURES
• DETAILED TRIM WORK
• HANDCRAFTED FINISHES
• OVERSIZED LOT
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE
• COMFORTABLE LIVING AREAS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $199k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $318 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $199k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.8% in Winnsboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#416 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Winnsboro ISD (town): math 46% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #330 of 826 in TX (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Winnsboro El (355 students, 71% FRL) — zoned schools average 71% FRL vs 49% district-wide (22 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 220 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 7 units permitted in Franklin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($193k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $193,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.85%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $217,008
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1011 N Main St	0.24mi	3/1.5	1,538 (-3%)	1mo	$210,000	$137	81
308 Jeannine St	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,615 (+2%)	6mo	$236,900	$147	80
504 N Main St	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,710 (+8%)	2mo	$245,888	$144	70
911 N Walnut St	0.05mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,760 (+11%)	12mo	$138,000	$78	64
207 E Cedar St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,586 (+0%)	15mo	$169,900	$107	55
408 N Post Oak	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-4%)	11mo	$168,000	$111	53
203 E Cedar St	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+0%)	15mo	$189,500	$119	50
308 S Mill St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,450 (-8%)	2mo	$125,000	$86	50
506 Winn Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,422 (-10%)	2mo	$199,500	$140	47
205 S Main St	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,815 (+15%)	3mo	$189,000	$104	42
409 W Myrtle St	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,708 (+8%)	14mo	$269,500	$158	40
601 Mitchell St	0.64mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,470 (-7%)	23mo	$239,900	$163	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-11,914
• Equity at exit: $29,672

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.29×
• Total profit: $16,025
• Equity at exit: $17,206

Cash invested: $55,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75494

• Home prices YoY: -10.9%
• Active inventory: 220
• Price-to-rent: 7.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,235 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,044
• Tax from tax record: −$321 /mo · $3,854/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$469
• Net cashflow: $318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,832

Max offer price $199,000

Occupancy floor 81%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $431	-5% $374	+0% $318	+5% $262	+10% $205
Rent	-10% $141	-5% $230	+0% $318	+5% $406	+10% $495
Rate	-1.0pp $418	-0.5pp $369	base $318	+0.5pp $266	+1.0pp $214

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,750
• Closing costs: $5,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
305 S Mill St Winnsboro, TX	4.0	2.0	1954	$2,235	$1.14	44d	1	0.61mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-25
   price $199,000
3. 2026-03-04
   listed $229,000 Active
4. 2025-09-03
   price $234,000
5. 2025-08-01
   price $239,000
6. 2025-06-19
   price $249,000
7. 2025-05-12
   price $259,000
8. 2025-04-19
   listed $264,000 Active
9. 2025-03-18
   soldstatus
10. 2024-11-01
    historical
11. 2024-04-15
    listed $269,900 Active
12. 2024-04-10
    listed $269,900 Active
13. 2024-02-28
    soldstatus
14. 2023-12-21
    soldstatus Closed
15. 2023-12-21
    soldstatus
16. 2023-12-19
    status Pending
17. 2023-12-07
    historical Active Option Contract
18. 2023-11-16
    soldstatus
19. 2023-03-17
    price $18,500
20. 2023-03-17
    listed $18,500 Active
21. 2023-01-06
    listed $20,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,854 · $321/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,854 · $321/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,820
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,147
• − Property taxes: −$3,854
• − Insurance: −$995
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,146
• − Management: −$2,146
• − Depreciation: −$5,789
• Taxable income: $744
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$179
• After-tax cash flow: $3,638/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Winnsboro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846200
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $40,192
• Composite: 36.07/100
• National rank: #4769
• State rank: #330 of 826 in TX

Livability — Winnsboro

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #416
• US rank: #8564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Winnsboro, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,685

Population outlook (Franklin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,621 people
• By 2030: 10,648 · +0.3%
• By 2040: 10,629 · +0.1%
• By 2050: 10,486 · -1.3%
• By 2075: 10,038 · -5.5%
• By 2100: 8,816 · -17.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 8% German/W. Germanic 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Franklin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.9) · D 15.3% · R 84.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -52.5pp · 2024: -68.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.9 2020: R+67.0 2016: R+67.0 2012: R+63.4 2008: R+52.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -28.64%
• Current HPI: 234.6203
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+895.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-25 Price Changed $199,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-04 Listed $229,000 NTREIS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $234,000 NTREIS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $239,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-19 Price Changed $249,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $259,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-19 Listed $264,000 NTREIS
• 2025-03-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-11-01 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-04-15 Listed $269,900 GTAR
• 2024-04-10 Listed $269,900 NTREIS
• 2024-02-28 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-12-21 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2023-12-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2023-12-07 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2023-11-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2023-03-17 Price Changed $18,500 NTREIS
• 2023-03-17 Listed $18,500 GTAR
• 2023-01-06 Listed $20,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+22.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,854 · +2125.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.