211 Hickory Way · Ellwood City, PA 16117

$92,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,408 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 54 Days on market

Built 1940 2,962 sqft lot $65/sqft · 41% below area Est $155k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located at 211 Hickory Way, nestled in the heart of Ellwood City, this property is ready for someone with a vision! This property requires just a little bit of cosmetic elbow grease to make a great home. 211 Hickory Way is all about convenience. Easy to maintain yard. Close to several parks. It is within walking distance of most of the restaurants and stores that Ellwood City has to offer. This home is of ample size and would make a great starter home. It is priced to sell, so hurry up and get on the schedule!

Key facts

• 2,962 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1940

Tags

• EASY TO MAINTAIN YARD
• CLOSE TO SEVERAL PARKS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Off-street parking; Total parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Resale property
• Exterior features: Asphalt roof; Small lot (approximately 0.068 acres)

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Unfinished interior-entry basement; Public transportation nearby

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $92k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $314 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $92k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.4% vs local median 5.3% in Ellwood City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#610 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Ellwood City Area SD (town): math 28% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #334 of 539 in PA (top 62%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 53 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 51 units permitted in Lawrence County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $636 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lawrence County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $26k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $74k; 25% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.0% of price; built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $89,240 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.47% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.63%
• DSCR: 1.65
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $155,447
• List price: $92,000
• Delta: -40.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
421 Wayne Ave	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,375 (-2%)	1mo	$167,500	$122	76
434 1st Ave	0.48mi	3/2.5	1,392 (-1%)	3mo	$65,000	$47	69
511 Bridge St	0.62mi	3/1.5	1,404 (-0%)	2mo	$135,000	$96	69
705 Park Ave	0.48mi	3/1.5	1,330 (-6%)	1mo	$155,000	$117	68
412 Orchard Ave	0.66mi	3/1.5	1,400 (-1%)	3mo	$170,000	$121	66
624 Line Ave	0.63mi	3/1.5	1,443 (+2%)	3mo	$154,000	$107	64
316 Line Ave	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,526 (+8%)	3mo	$260,000	$170	58
805 National Way	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+11%)	2mo	$178,000	$114	56
501 Summit Ave	0.57mi	3/2.0	1,555 (+10%)	2mo	$174,900	$112	52
209 Line Ave	0.50mi	3/1.5	1,206 (-14%)	3mo	$180,000	$149	50
212 Evans Dr	0.67mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+6%)	2mo	$174,000	$116	49
328 Line Ave	0.51mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,203 (-15%)	2mo	$205,000	$170	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.20×
• Total profit: $5,190
• Equity at exit: $13,717

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $30,654
• Equity at exit: $7,954

Cash invested: $25,760 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 16117

• Home prices YoY: -7.5%
• Active inventory: 53
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,350 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$482
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,779/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$284
• Net cashflow: $314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $952

Max offer price $92,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,000
• Closing costs: $2,760
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
716 Hazel Ave Ellwood City, PA	3.0	1.5	1037	$1,350	$1.30	3d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,000 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,000 Active 53 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,000 Active 52 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $92,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $92,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $92,000 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $92,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $92,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-05-30
    days on market $92,000 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-05-14
    price $92,000 515-char remark
15. 2026-04-24
    listed $99,000 Active 515-char remark
16. 2007-06-22
    soldstatus $73,500
17. 2007-06-22
    soldstatus $73,500
18. 2005-06-07
    soldstatus $66,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,779 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,779 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,153
• − Property taxes: −$2,779
• − Insurance: −$460
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,296
• − Management: −$1,296
• − Depreciation: −$2,676
• Taxable income: $2,539
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$609
• After-tax cash flow: $3,160/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ellwood City Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4209240
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $44,230
• Composite: 35.49/100
• National rank: #4921
• State rank: #334 of 539 in PA

Livability — Ellwood City

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #610
• US rank: #5866

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellwood City, PA
• Population (ZIP): 16,013

Population outlook (Lawrence County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 81,781 people
• By 2030: 77,978 · -4.7%
• By 2040: 69,522 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 61,344 · -25.0%
• By 2075: 45,027 · -44.9%
• By 2100: 31,305 · -61.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Serbian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Lawrence

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.8% · R 66.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.7pp toward R · 2008: -5.1pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+29.6 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+9.0 2008: R+5.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -20.81%
• Current HPI: 257.3336
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+38.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $92,000 West Penn MLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $99,000 West Penn MLS
• 2007-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records
• 2007-06-22 Sold (Public Records) $73,500 Public Records
• 2005-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $66,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2026): $2,779 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.