The Maple Plan · Pownal, VT 05261

$95,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,001 sqft · SingleFamily · 7 Days on market

Good condition

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.2/30.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The Maple | Lake Manor Series | 3 Bed · 2 Bath · 1,001 Sq Ft Three bedrooms. The Maple packs a full family layout into 1,001 square feet without wasting an inch - and at a price point that makes real homeownership possible. Part of the Lake Manor Series, this single-wide features an open living and dining area that flows into a well-equipped kitchen with stainless steel appliances (18 cu. ft. refrigerator, 30" electric range, vented hood), a counter-height island, LED lighting, and durable laminate countertops with modern cabinetry. Three bedrooms and two full bathrooms give families the space and privacy they actually need. Built to last with R-33 roof insulation, R-13 w

Key facts

• Led lighting
• Listed 6 days

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AND DINING AREA
• WELL-EQUIPPED KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• COUNTER-HEIGHT ISLAND
• LED LIGHTING
• DURABLE LAMINATE COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: The Maple Plan, Pownal, VT 05261
• Financial info: List price $95,000

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family plan (The Maple); Listed as active
• Construction: Living area approximately 1001; New construction plan
• Exterior features: Shake roof

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Active plan listing: The Maple

🏗️ New construction. The $95,000 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $257,257.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $95k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-692 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $95k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Market conditions: 23 active listings in the ZIP; 59 units permitted in Bennington County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (2.3% local appreciation)).
• Bennington County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price.

Recommended offer $95,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.53% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.06%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.53%
• DSCR: 0.49
• GRM: 15.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $257,257
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
555 NW Hill Rd	0.50mi	2/1.0 (-1)	876 (-12%)	6mo	$225,000	$257	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.34% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-21,975
• Equity at exit: $106,200

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.93×
• Total profit: $-5,001
• Equity at exit: $156,650

Cash invested: $72,032 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05261

• Home prices YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 23
• Price-to-rent: 5.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,374 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,349
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$322 /mo · $3,859/yr
• Insurance: −$107
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$289
• Net cashflow: $-692

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,250

Max offer price $157,108

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-514	-5% $-603	+0% $-692	+5% $-781	+10% $-870
Rent	-10% $-801	-5% $-746	+0% $-692	+5% $-638	+10% $-584
Rate	-1.0pp $-563	-0.5pp $-627	base $-692	+0.5pp $-759	+1.0pp $-827

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,314
• Closing costs: $7,718
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $95,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $95,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $95,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $95,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $95,000 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 680-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $95,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,492
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,410
• − Property taxes: −$3,859
• − Insurance: −$1,286
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,319
• − Management: −$1,319
• − Depreciation: −$7,484
• Taxable loss: −$13,186
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,165
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,141/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

The Maple is a well-maintained single-wide home with modern finishes and a good condition score. It offers a good return on investment with minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value.
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen can attract more buyers. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the HVAC system — A more efficient HVAC system can improve comfort and energy efficiency, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Pownal

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pownal, VT
• Population (ZIP): 2,200

Population outlook (Bennington County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 34,407 people
• By 2030: 32,975 · -4.2%
• By 2040: 29,711 · -13.6%
• By 2050: 26,638 · -22.6%
• By 2075: 21,318 · -38.0%
• By 2100: 16,086 · -53.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 9% Romanian 4% Slovak 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bennington

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.5) · D 60.0% · R 37.5% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: 33.4pp · 2024: 22.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.5 2020: D+27.3 2016: D+22.1 2012: D+33.3 2008: D+33.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.34%
• Current HPI: 301.5888
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0