2515 Francis St · St. Joseph, MO 64501

$69,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,491 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 52 Days on market

Built 1932 7,840 sqft lot $46/sqft · 61% below area ↓ 25% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Investor special in the heart of Saint Joseph! This property at 2515 Francis St is a true fixer-upper with tons of potential for the right buyer. Whether you’re looking to renovate and flip or add to your rental portfolio, this home offers a great opportunity to build equity. Featuring a solid structure and a spacious lot, it’s ready for your vision and updates. Conveniently located near local amenities, this is your chance to turn a diamond in the rough into something special.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Built 1932
• Listed 52 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $69k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $415 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $69k).
• Recommended offer: $67k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.5% vs local median 4.7% in St. Joseph — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Joseph (urban): math 28% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #241 of 324 in MO (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edison Elem. (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #910 of 1,115 statewide, top 83%, 288 students, 99% FRL); Bode Middle (math 29% / reading 44%, grade F, #231 of 391 statewide, top 60%, 486 students, 45% FRL); Central High (math 28% / reading 50%, grade F, #287 of 521 statewide, top 55%, 1,728 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 70 units permitted in Buchanan County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $477 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Buchanan County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($67k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1932 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $66,930 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1932 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.66% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.78%
• DSCR: 2.15
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,369
• List price: $69,000
• Delta: -60.65%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2807 Faraon St	0.31mi	4/2.0	1,504 (+1%)	1mo	$184,500	$123	83
2406 Edmond St	0.17mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,496 (+0%)	4mo	$169,000	$113	79
510 N 26th St	0.21mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,556 (+4%)	2mo	$185,000	$119	77
414 Birch St	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,430 (-4%)	4mo	$279,900	$196	64
2310 Faraon St	0.17mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,664 (+12%)	2mo	$175,000	$105	64
2517 Faraon St	0.12mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,286 (-14%)	6mo	$85,000	$66	57
724 S 21st St	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,292 (-13%)	2mo	$164,000	$127	50
3001 Felix St S	0.51mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,680 (+13%)	3mo	$149,900	$89	47
2015 Barkley Ln	0.75mi	4/1.0	1,394 (-6%)	6mo	$149,900	$108	46
1620 Buchanan Ave	0.63mi	5/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-12%)	6mo	$202,500	$153	41
412 S 31st St	0.66mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,369 (-8%)	6mo	$164,900	$120	41
3019 Edmond St	0.59mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,300 (-13%)	5mo	$155,000	$119	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.79×
• Total profit: $15,284
• Equity at exit: $10,288

10-year hold

• IRR: 27.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.46×
• Total profit: $47,461
• Equity at exit: $5,966

Cash invested: $19,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 64501

• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$362
• Tax from tax record: −$101 /mo · $1,215/yr
• Insurance: −$29
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $623

Max offer price $69,000

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $454	-5% $435	+0% $415	+5% $396	+10% $376
Rent	-10% $324	-5% $370	+0% $415	+5% $460	+10% $506
Rate	-1.0pp $450	-0.5pp $433	base $415	+0.5pp $397	+1.0pp $379

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,250
• Closing costs: $2,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2901 Frederick Ave Saint Joseph, MO	2.0–3.0	1.0	900	$1,000	$1.11	45d	1	0.80mi
303 S 13th St St Joseph, MO	3.0	1.5	1000	$950	$0.95	45d	1	0.82mi
1616 S 25th St Saint Joseph, MO	3.0	1.0	1500	$1,300	$0.87	45d	1	1.12mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $69,000 Pending 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   pricedays on market $69,000 Active 50 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $79,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $79,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $79,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $79,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-05-19
   price $89,000 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   Investor special in the heart of Saint Joseph! This property at 2515 Francis St is a true fixer-upper with tons of potential for the right buyer. Whether you’re looking to renovate and flip or add to your rental portfolio, this home offers a great opportunity to build equity. Featuring a solid structure and a spacious lot, it’s ready for your vision and updates. Conveniently located near local amenities, this is your chance to turn a diamond in the rough into something special.

8. 2026-05-12
   price $94,000 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   Investor special in the heart of Saint Joseph! This property at 2515 Francis St is a true fixer-upper with tons of potential for the right buyer. Whether you’re looking to renovate and flip or add to your rental portfolio, this home offers a great opportunity to build equity. Featuring a solid structure and a spacious lot, it’s ready for your vision and updates. Conveniently located near local amenities, this is your chance to turn a diamond in the rough into something special.

9. 2026-05-07
   price $99,000 494-char remark

   Show marketing remark (494 chars)

   Investor special in the heart of Saint Joseph! This property at 2515 Francis St is a true fixer-upper with tons of potential for the right buyer. Whether you’re looking to renovate and flip or add to your rental portfolio, this home offers a great opportunity to build equity. Featuring a solid structure and a spacious lot, it’s ready for your vision and updates. Conveniently located near local amenities, this is your chance to turn a diamond in the rough into something special.

10. 2026-04-30
    price $109,000 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Investor special in the heart of Saint Joseph! This property at 2515 Francis St is a true fixer-upper with tons of potential for the right buyer. Whether you’re looking to renovate and flip or add to your rental portfolio, this home offers a great opportunity to build equity. Featuring a solid structure and a spacious lot, it’s ready for your vision and updates. Conveniently located near local amenities, this is your chance to turn a diamond in the rough into something special.

11. 2026-04-22
    price $114,000 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Investor special in the heart of Saint Joseph! This property at 2515 Francis St is a true fixer-upper with tons of potential for the right buyer. Whether you’re looking to renovate and flip or add to your rental portfolio, this home offers a great opportunity to build equity. Featuring a solid structure and a spacious lot, it’s ready for your vision and updates. Conveniently located near local amenities, this is your chance to turn a diamond in the rough into something special.

12. 2026-04-14
    listed $119,000 Active 494-char remark

    Show marketing remark (494 chars)

    Investor special in the heart of Saint Joseph! This property at 2515 Francis St is a true fixer-upper with tons of potential for the right buyer. Whether you’re looking to renovate and flip or add to your rental portfolio, this home offers a great opportunity to build equity. Featuring a solid structure and a spacious lot, it’s ready for your vision and updates. Conveniently located near local amenities, this is your chance to turn a diamond in the rough into something special.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,215 · $101/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,215 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,777
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,865
• − Property taxes: −$1,215
• − Insurance: −$345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,102
• − Management: −$1,102
• − Depreciation: −$2,007
• Taxable income: $4,140
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$994
• After-tax cash flow: $3,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Joseph
• NCES district ID: 2927060
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $43,007
• Composite: 27.99/100
• National rank: #6853
• State rank: #241 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Joseph

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Joseph, MO
• County: Buchanan County · 32,150 people
• City population: 44,382
• Metro: St. Joseph, MO-KS
• Population (ZIP): 10,689
• Household income: $46,731
• Rent vs Own: 50.8% rent · 49.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 721.0

Population outlook (Buchanan County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,041 people
• By 2030: 88,401 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 86,220 · -3.2%
• By 2050: 83,603 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 76,750 · -13.8%
• By 2100: 67,623 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Buchanan

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+28.0) · D 35.2% · R 63.3% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.2pp toward R · 2008: 0.1pp · 2024: -28.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+28.0 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.2 2012: R+8.7 2008: D+0.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -150.20%
• Current HPI: 157.8706
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Joseph, MO-KS
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

-25.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $89,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $94,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-07 Price Changed $99,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $109,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $114,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-14 Listed $119,000 Heartland MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+1.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,215 · +6.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.