141 Wallen Rnch · Trinity Village, CA 95527

$130,000

2 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,300 sqft · SingleFamily · 54 Days on market

Built 1960 Est $192k · 32% under ↓ 45% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Are you dreaming of a cabin in the woods. .. or three? Hawkins Creek runs through this 2.36 acre property with tons of possibility. Three structures, vast rock gardens as well as a large garden area/pasture across a lovely bridge. Fruit trees, kiwi vines, berries, you name it! The original 1300ft2 main house is currently under renovation with a covered porch out back right on the creek. The 800ft2 cabin uphill is framed, sided, wired and has a metal roof. The 700ft2 studio cabin is has some unique finishes and an attached single garage. Sale is AS IS. Bring your homesteading or rental visions to life!

Key facts

• Remodeled
• Fruit trees
• Fenced garden area

Tags

• REMODELED
• FENCED GARDEN AREA
• FRUIT TREES
• WATER SOURCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-545/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $123k (5.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (10.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 49/100 on livability (#1,153 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety C-, crime D-, amenities F.
• Burnt Ranch Elementary (rural): math 40% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #614 of 1,400 in CA (top 44%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Burnt Ranch Elementary (math 44% / reading 54%, grade D, #410 of 1,571 statewide, top 28%, 91 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: 22 active listings in the ZIP; 21 units permitted in Trinity County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.9%/yr); year-one equity from $899 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Trinity County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($126k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $69k (35%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $68/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,556 (10.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.50%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.74%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $192,400
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
50 Flame Tree Rd	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,350 (+4%)	9mo	$200,000	$148	60
50 Flame Tree Rd	0.52mi	2/1.0	1,350 (+4%)	9mo	$200,000	$148	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.89% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-17,766
• Equity at exit: $25,910

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.63×
• Total profit: $-13,454
• Equity at exit: $22,776

Cash invested: $36,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95527

• Home prices YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 22
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,166 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$682
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,950/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$68 /mo · $814/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,223

Max offer price $123,425

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $44	-5% $-1	+0% $-45	+5% $-90	+10% $-135
Rent	-10% $-138	-5% $-91	+0% $-45	+5% $1	+10% $47
Rate	-1.0pp $20	-0.5pp $-12	base $-45	+0.5pp $-79	+1.0pp $-113

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,500
• Closing costs: $3,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-03-28
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   price $130,000
3. 2026-03-21
   price $150,000
4. 2026-03-05
   price $175,000
5. 2026-01-30
   listed $199,000 Active
6. 2024-09-03
   soldstatus $165,000 Closed 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   Are you dreaming of a cabin in the woods. .. or three? Hawkins Creek runs through this 2.36 acre property with tons of possibility. Three structures, vast rock gardens as well as a large garden area/pasture across a lovely bridge. Fruit trees, kiwi vines, berries, you name it! The original 1300ft2 main house is currently under renovation with a covered porch out back right on the creek. The 800ft2 cabin uphill is framed, sided, wired and has a metal roof. The 700ft2 studio cabin is has some unique finishes and an attached single garage. Sale is AS IS. Bring your homesteading or rental visions to life!

7. 2024-07-26
   status Pending 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   Are you dreaming of a cabin in the woods. .. or three? Hawkins Creek runs through this 2.36 acre property with tons of possibility. Three structures, vast rock gardens as well as a large garden area/pasture across a lovely bridge. Fruit trees, kiwi vines, berries, you name it! The original 1300ft2 main house is currently under renovation with a covered porch out back right on the creek. The 800ft2 cabin uphill is framed, sided, wired and has a metal roof. The 700ft2 studio cabin is has some unique finishes and an attached single garage. Sale is AS IS. Bring your homesteading or rental visions to life!

8. 2024-02-24
   price $165,000 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   Are you dreaming of a cabin in the woods. .. or three? Hawkins Creek runs through this 2.36 acre property with tons of possibility. Three structures, vast rock gardens as well as a large garden area/pasture across a lovely bridge. Fruit trees, kiwi vines, berries, you name it! The original 1300ft2 main house is currently under renovation with a covered porch out back right on the creek. The 800ft2 cabin uphill is framed, sided, wired and has a metal roof. The 700ft2 studio cabin is has some unique finishes and an attached single garage. Sale is AS IS. Bring your homesteading or rental visions to life!

9. 2023-11-30
   listed $235,000 Active 608-char remark

   Show marketing remark (608 chars)

   Are you dreaming of a cabin in the woods. .. or three? Hawkins Creek runs through this 2.36 acre property with tons of possibility. Three structures, vast rock gardens as well as a large garden area/pasture across a lovely bridge. Fruit trees, kiwi vines, berries, you name it! The original 1300ft2 main house is currently under renovation with a covered porch out back right on the creek. The 800ft2 cabin uphill is framed, sided, wired and has a metal roof. The 700ft2 studio cabin is has some unique finishes and an attached single garage. Sale is AS IS. Bring your homesteading or rental visions to life!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone D · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 9 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 38 unhealthy d/yr today · 42 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,987
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,282
• − Property taxes: −$1,950
• − Insurance: −$1,464
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,119
• − Management: −$1,119
• − Depreciation: −$3,782
• Taxable loss: −$2,729
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$655
• After-tax cash flow: $110/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Burnt Ranch Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0606510
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $37,482
• Composite: 39.65/100
• National rank: #8040
• State rank: #614 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Trinity Village

• Score: 49/100
• State rank: #1153
• US rank: #25801

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment D- Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Trinity Village, CA
• Population (ZIP): 708

Population outlook (Trinity County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,337 people
• By 2030: 10,349 · -8.7%
• By 2040: 8,518 · -24.9%
• By 2050: 7,084 · -37.5%
• By 2075: 4,693 · -58.6%
• By 2100: 2,894 · -74.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Native American 11% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Trinity

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 43.4% · R 52.8% · Other 3.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.0pp toward R · 2008: 4.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+5.4 2016: R+11.3 2012: R+1.1 2008: D+4.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.89%
• Current HPI: 86.6321
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-44.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Pending — Trinity AOR
• 2026-03-24 Price Changed $130,000 Trinity AOR
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $150,000 Trinity AOR
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $175,000 Trinity AOR
• 2026-01-30 Listed $199,000 Trinity AOR
• 2024-09-03 Sold (MLS) $165,000 Trinity AOR
• 2024-07-26 Pending — Trinity AOR
• 2024-02-24 Price Changed $165,000 Trinity AOR
• 2023-11-30 Listed $235,000 Trinity AOR