361 Balmorea Dr · Shadybrook, TX 75757

$89,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,173 sqft · Manufactured public records · 87 Days on market

Built 2005 0.34 ac lot $77/sqft · 54% below area $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 5% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located in the Shadybrook community of Bullard, TX, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers convenient living just minutes from Lake Palestine. The property features a functional layout with a spacious living area, kitchen with dining space, and a private primary suite. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or office space. Enjoy a quiet neighborhood setting with quick access to lake activities, boat ramps, and nearby amenities. Located within the highly regarded Bullard ISD. A great opportunity for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment near Lake Palestine!

Key facts

• Bullard isd
• Lake palestine
• 0.34 acre lot

Tags

• LAKE PALESTINE
• PRIVATE PRIMARY SUITE
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD SETTING
• BULLARD ISD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $704 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 4.0% in Shadybrook — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,042 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Bullard ISD (rural): math 65% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #48 of 826 in TX (top 6%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 581 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $84,506 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.57%
• DSCR: 2.49
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $194,674
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -53.82%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
273 San Marcos	0.62mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-10%)	11mo	$199,000	$188	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $30,297
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.34×
• Total profit: $84,184
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75757

• Home prices YoY: -23.6%
• Active inventory: 581
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,650 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $724/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$346
• Net cashflow: $704

Break-even live

Break-even rent $759

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
394 Red Bud Cir Bullard, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	43d	1	0.67mi
124 Pecan Dr Bullard, TX	3.0	2.0	1366	$1,650	$1.21	43d	1	0.90mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $89,900 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 83 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $89,900 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 75 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $89,900 Active 71 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 70 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 69 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 68 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,900 Active 67 DOM
17. 2026-05-05
    price $89,900 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    Located in the Shadybrook community of Bullard, TX, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers convenient living just minutes from Lake Palestine. The property features a functional layout with a spacious living area, kitchen with dining space, and a private primary suite. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or office space. Enjoy a quiet neighborhood setting with quick access to lake activities, boat ramps, and nearby amenities. Located within the highly regarded Bullard ISD. A great opportunity for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment near Lake Palestine!

18. 2026-03-31
    status Active 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    Located in the Shadybrook community of Bullard, TX, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers convenient living just minutes from Lake Palestine. The property features a functional layout with a spacious living area, kitchen with dining space, and a private primary suite. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or office space. Enjoy a quiet neighborhood setting with quick access to lake activities, boat ramps, and nearby amenities. Located within the highly regarded Bullard ISD. A great opportunity for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment near Lake Palestine!

19. 2026-03-16
    status Pending 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    Located in the Shadybrook community of Bullard, TX, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers convenient living just minutes from Lake Palestine. The property features a functional layout with a spacious living area, kitchen with dining space, and a private primary suite. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or office space. Enjoy a quiet neighborhood setting with quick access to lake activities, boat ramps, and nearby amenities. Located within the highly regarded Bullard ISD. A great opportunity for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment near Lake Palestine!

20. 2026-03-09
    listed $94,900 Active 598-char remark

    Show marketing remark (598 chars)

    Located in the Shadybrook community of Bullard, TX, this 3 bedroom, 2 bath home offers convenient living just minutes from Lake Palestine. The property features a functional layout with a spacious living area, kitchen with dining space, and a private primary suite. Two additional bedrooms provide flexibility for guests, family, or office space. Enjoy a quiet neighborhood setting with quick access to lake activities, boat ramps, and nearby amenities. Located within the highly regarded Bullard ISD. A great opportunity for a primary residence, weekend getaway, or investment near Lake Palestine!

21. 2022-03-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $724 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,645 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$921/yr (+$77/mo · 127.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,800
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$724
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,584
• − Management: −$1,584
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $7,447
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,787
• After-tax cash flow: $6,664/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bullard ISD
• NCES district ID: 4812060
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,026
• Composite: 53.66/100
• National rank: #1433
• State rank: #48 of 826 in TX

Livability — Shadybrook

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #1042
• US rank: #18541

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment B- Housing C Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Shadybrook, TX
• Population (ZIP): 13,977

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.57%
• Current HPI: 189.5215
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-05 Price Changed $89,900 GTAR
• 2026-03-31 Relisted — GTAR
• 2026-03-16 Pending — GTAR
• 2026-03-09 Listed $94,900 GTAR
• 2022-03-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $724 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.