11060 Roland Parks Rd · Chance, MD 21821

$200,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1977 1.07 ac lot Est $340k · 41% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautifully maintained home in Chance very close to the water. Freshly painted interior. The family room is a huge sunroom with views of the water. Oversize two car garage with workshop and attic. Dog kennel with 20 x 40 ft. run.

Key facts

• Large sunroom
• Double lot
• Two car garage

Tags

• LARGE SUNROOM
• DOUBLE LOT
• TWO CAR GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (2 spaces); Front-entry and side-entry garage access; Four off-street parking spaces; Total of 6 garage/parking spaces
• Utilities: Well water; Septic system; Electric hot water
• Home design: Detached structure; Stick-built construction; Crawl space foundation; Above-grade finished living area (1,440 finished sq. ft. per assessor)
• Construction: Built per assessor (year source: assessor)
• Exterior features: Outbuilding(s); Sidewalks; Located outside city limits; Not in a federal flood zone; Additional parcel included (Acct Identifier 09-166300)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard electric heating; Window air conditioning units (electric)
• Interior features: No basement; Living area per assessor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $292 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#427 in MD) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Somerset County Public Schools (town): math 12% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #22 of 24 in MD (top 92%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Somerset 6/7 Intermediate School (math 8% / reading 26%, grade F, #170 of 225 statewide, top 77%, 396 students, 73% FRL).
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 49 units permitted in Somerset County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Somerset County population projected at -16% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $56k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask is 91% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $105k; list at $200k implies a 91% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $200,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.27%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $339,840
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23659 Thomas Price Rd	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,456 (+1%)	6mo	$230,000	$158	82
23494 Temple Ln	0.45mi	3/1.5	1,440 (0%)	20mo	$340,000	$236	60

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.28×
• Total profit: $127,525
• Equity at exit: $180,176

10-year hold

• IRR: 25.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.44×
• Total profit: $360,837
• Equity at exit: $388,556

Cash invested: $56,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21821

• Home prices YoY: 19.4%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,049
• Tax from tax record: −$155 /mo · $1,864/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$420
• Net cashflow: $292

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,630

Max offer price $200,000

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $406	-5% $349	+0% $292	+5% $236	+10% $179
Rent	-10% $134	-5% $213	+0% $292	+5% $371	+10% $450
Rate	-1.0pp $393	-0.5pp $343	base $292	+0.5pp $241	+1.0pp $188

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,000
• Closing costs: $6,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
23451 Deal Island Rd Deal Island, MD	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,000	$1.25	15d	1	1.20mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   statusdays on market $200,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $200,000 Coming Soon 3 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $200,000 Coming Soon 2 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   remarks 185-char remark
6. 2026-06-15
   listed $200,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,864 · $155/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,022 · $169/mo
• Expected delta: +$158/yr (+$13/mo · 8.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 51% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,203
• − Property taxes: −$1,864
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,920
• − Management: −$1,920
• − Depreciation: −$5,818
• Taxable income: $274
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$66
• After-tax cash flow: $3,444/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Somerset County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400570
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $38,810
• Composite: 14.73/100
• National rank: #9396
• State rank: #22 of 24 in MD

Livability — Chance

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #427
• US rank: #24063

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Chance, MD
• Population (ZIP): 736

Population outlook (Somerset County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,474 people
• By 2030: 23,547 · -3.8%
• By 2040: 21,498 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 20,427 · -16.5%
• By 2075: 16,594 · -32.2%
• By 2100: 12,132 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Slovak 3% Polish 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Somerset

• 2024 margin: R (+17.4) · D 40.2% · R 57.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.8pp toward R · 2008: -2.6pp · 2024: -17.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+17.9 2012: R+2.5 2008: R+2.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 48.66%
• Current HPI: 299.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+150.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Coming Soon $200,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $104,900 Public Records
• 2004-06-28 Sold (Public Records) $104,900 Public Records
• 2004-06-23 Sold (MLS) $104,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2004-04-22 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2003-05-30 Listed $104,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1996-04-10 Sold (MLS) $69,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 1996-02-19 Listed $79,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,864 · +13.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.