151 Pinewood Dr · Loughman, FL 33896

$389,900

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,224 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 109 Days on market

Built 2000 5,249 sqft lot $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious 5 bed 3.5 bath 2 story pool home in the sought after Pinewood Country Estates community. It is located only fifteen minutes from Disney. New Roof installed 2017. Great for a large family with enough room for the whole family, over 2200 sq ft. Investors welcome as well this community is zoned for short term rental. Enjoy the heated pool and Spa with a partially fenced in yard. Tiled kitchen and vinyl flooring in the bathrooms. The master Bedroom has 2 large separate closets and the bathroom features a stand up shower, Garden tub and dual sinks. The four bedrooms are located upstairs they share two full bathrooms. HOA only $37 per month.

Key facts

• Screened pool
• Stand up shower
• Garden tub

Tags

• SCREENED POOL
• PARTIALLY FENCED YARD
• SHORT TERM RENTAL ZONING
• LARGE SEPARATE CLOSETS
• STAND UP SHOWER
• GARDEN TUB

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Living area reported as 2,224 sq ft (building area total 2,803 sq ft); Total of 2 levels
• Financial info: No lease restrictions indicated
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Association name: VALERIE RAMOS); Monthly HOA fee $50 (Quarterly association fee $150); Pets allowed with breed restrictions

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (approx. 20 x 20)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable connected; Electricity connected
• Home design: Single family residence; Two stories; Faces east; Homestead property
• Construction: Block and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Lot approximately 0.12 acre (50 x 105), concrete road frontage
• Exterior features: Sidewalk; Sliding doors; Private in-ground pool

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 5 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen and family room combo; Walk-in closets; Formal dining room (separate); Total of 8 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-170 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $360k (7.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (23.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (23.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.8% in Loughman — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#781 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 773 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,998/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) (locally 1490% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.8%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 109 days — a 9% lower offer ($355k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $242k; list at $390k implies a 61% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $299,848 (23.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 109 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.87%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.83% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-63,443
• Equity at exit: $78,787

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-85,900
• Equity at exit: $70,273

Cash invested: $109,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33896

• Home prices YoY: -0.8%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 773
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,998 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$282 /mo · $3,382/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $-170

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,214

Max offer price $359,841

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,475
• Closing costs: $11,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
143 Breezy Oaks Ct Davenport, FL	6.0	4.5	2500	$3,000	$1.20	23d	1	0.21mi
120 Reserve Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	1790	$2,500	$1.40	23d	1	0.35mi
1014 Cypress Pointe Blvd Davenport, FL	5.0	4.0	2110	$3,200	$1.52	23d	1	0.48mi
112 Cypress Pointe Ct Davenport, FL	5.0	3.5	2609	$3,800	$1.46	23d	1	0.62mi
376 Tanglewood Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1851	$2,400	$1.30	23d	1	0.71mi
136 Villa Domani Cir Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1823	$3,100	$1.70	23d	1	0.72mi
181 Villa Domani Cir Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1823	$2,600	$1.43	23d	1	0.74mi
415 Villa Domani Way Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	2205	$3,995	$1.81	10d	1	0.76mi
437 Grand Reserve Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2783	$6,000	$2.16	14d	1	0.76mi
216 Villa Domani Cir Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1871	$3,000	$1.60	23d	1	0.78mi
231 Salamanca Rd Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,120	$1.15	23d	1	0.78mi
396 Famagusta Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	4.0	1671	$3,000	$1.80	23d	1	0.89mi
401 Briar Patch Loop Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2696	$2,600	$0.96	3d	1	0.90mi
1000 Victoria Park Blvd Davenport, FL	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1212	$2,199	$1.81	2d	10	0.90mi
395 Famagusta Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	4.0	1671	$2,700	$1.62	11d	1	0.90mi
308 Balmoral Ct Davenport, FL	5.0	3.5	2201	$3,200	$1.45	23d	1	0.92mi
151 Granada Blvd Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	2059	$2,500	$1.21	14d	1	0.92mi
332 Famagusta Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	5.0	2143	$2,750	$1.28	3d	1	0.95mi
509 Famagusta Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	4.0	1671	$2,800	$1.68	23d	1	0.95mi
513 Famagusta Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	4.0	1671	$2,800	$1.68	14d	1	0.95mi
112 Azalea Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1971	$2,800	$1.42	23d	1	0.95mi
1126 Sandy Ridge Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	1662	$3,000	$1.81	3d	1	0.96mi
564 Meadow Bend Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	2345	$2,900	$1.24	23d	1	1.02mi
165 Scrub Jay Way Davenport, FL	5.0	3.0	1662	$2,600	$1.56	14d	1	1.02mi
277 Famagusta Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	4.0	2020	$2,900	$1.44	23d	1	1.02mi
1737 Royal Ridge Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	3.5	1746	$2,500	$1.43	23d	1	1.03mi
333 Scrub Jay Way Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1918	$2,250	$1.17	3d	1	1.03mi
244 Famagusta Dr Unit 1038598P Davenport, FL	5.0	4.0	2744	$1,924	$0.70	14d	1	1.04mi
637 Trikomo Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	4.0	1856	$2,800	$1.51	23d	1	1.04mi
609 Trikomo Dr Davenport, FL	4.0	4.0	1736	$2,700	$1.56	23d	1	1.06mi
436 Lake Shore Pkwy Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1628	$2,700	$1.66	23d	1	1.09mi
356 Earlmont Pl Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1597	$2,550	$1.60	23d	1	1.11mi
260 Hamlet Loop Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	2100	$2,500	$1.19	3d	1	1.17mi
813 Grazie Loop Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	2424	$2,900	$1.20	3d	1	1.19mi
136 Starbird Ct Davenport, FL	4.0	3.0	1662	$2,600	$1.56	14d	1	1.20mi
502 Viola Dr Davenport, FL	5.0	4.0	2195	$2,900	$1.32	23d	1	1.23mi
7525 Oak Spring Ln Davenport, FL	5.0	4.5	2281	$2,599	$1.14	11d	1	1.29mi
421 Cabello Dr Unit 1259828P Davenport, FL	6.0	4.5	2863	$7,554	$2.64	21d	1	1.31mi
1320 Oak Crest St Davenport, FL	4.0	2.0	1850	$2,211	$1.20	14d	1	1.33mi
216 Viola Dr Davenport, FL	6.0	5.0	2771	$3,100	$1.12	3d	1	1.34mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 31 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,900 Active 109 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,900 Active 108 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,900 Active 107 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,900 Active 106 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,900 Active 104 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $389,900 Active 101 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,900 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $389,900 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $389,900 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $389,900 Active 95 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,900 Active 93 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,900 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,900 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-03-01
    listed $389,900 Active
15. 2025-01-31
    historical
16. 2024-11-14
    price $415,000
17. 2024-09-19
    listed $429,900 Active
18. 2019-12-02
    soldstatus $242,000
19. 2019-11-27
    soldstatus $241,000 Sold 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Spacious 5 bed 3.5 bath 2 story pool home in the sought after Pinewood Country Estates community. It is located only fifteen minutes from Disney. New Roof installed 2017. Great for a large family with enough room for the whole family, over 2200 sq ft. Investors welcome as well this community is zoned for short term rental. Enjoy the heated pool and Spa with a partially fenced in yard. Tiled kitchen and vinyl flooring in the bathrooms. The master Bedroom has 2 large separate closets and the bathroom features a stand up shower, Garden tub and dual sinks. The four bedrooms are located upstairs they share two full bathrooms. HOA only $37 per month.

20. 2019-10-28
    status Pending 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Spacious 5 bed 3.5 bath 2 story pool home in the sought after Pinewood Country Estates community. It is located only fifteen minutes from Disney. New Roof installed 2017. Great for a large family with enough room for the whole family, over 2200 sq ft. Investors welcome as well this community is zoned for short term rental. Enjoy the heated pool and Spa with a partially fenced in yard. Tiled kitchen and vinyl flooring in the bathrooms. The master Bedroom has 2 large separate closets and the bathroom features a stand up shower, Garden tub and dual sinks. The four bedrooms are located upstairs they share two full bathrooms. HOA only $37 per month.

21. 2019-10-18
    listed $255,000 Active 652-char remark

    Show marketing remark (652 chars)

    Spacious 5 bed 3.5 bath 2 story pool home in the sought after Pinewood Country Estates community. It is located only fifteen minutes from Disney. New Roof installed 2017. Great for a large family with enough room for the whole family, over 2200 sq ft. Investors welcome as well this community is zoned for short term rental. Enjoy the heated pool and Spa with a partially fenced in yard. Tiled kitchen and vinyl flooring in the bathrooms. The master Bedroom has 2 large separate closets and the bathroom features a stand up shower, Garden tub and dual sinks. The four bedrooms are located upstairs they share two full bathrooms. HOA only $37 per month.

22. 2012-06-13
    soldstatus $120,000
23. 2012-06-05
    soldstatus $120,000
24. 2012-04-24
    listed $139,500
25. 2012-04-11
    historical
26. 2012-02-04
    listed $139,500
27. 2010-05-04
    listed $235,000
28. 2009-01-29
    listed $259,900
29. 2008-05-09
    historical
30. 2008-03-30
    listed $269,999
31. 2004-03-30
    soldstatus $204,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,382 · $282/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,382 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $35,982
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,840
• − Property taxes: −$3,382
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,879
• − Management: −$2,879
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$11,343
• Taxable loss: −$8,890
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,134
• After-tax cash flow: $92/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Loughman

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #781
• US rank: #17702

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Loughman, FL
• County: Polk County · 740,051 people
• City population: 23,652
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• Population (ZIP): 26,731
• Household income: $74,668
• Rent vs Own: 54.9% rent · 45.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1490.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 14% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 15% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Estonian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 31% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.83%
• Current HPI: 219.4726
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.19%
• Metro: Lakeland-Winter Haven, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+91.1% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-01 Listed $389,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-31 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-14 Price Changed $415,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-09-19 Listed $429,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $242,000 Public Records
• 2019-11-27 Sold (MLS) $241,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-28 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-10-18 Listed $255,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $120,000 Public Records
• 2012-06-05 Sold (MLS) $120,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-24 Listed $139,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-11 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-02-04 Listed $139,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-05-04 Listed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-01-29 Listed $259,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-05-09 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-03-30 Listed $269,999 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-03-30 Sold (Public Records) $204,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,382 · +6.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.