5005 39th St · Lubbock, TX 79414

$149,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,369 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 1961 9,275 sqft lot $109/sqft · 8% below area Est $162k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• DSCR +3.7/10.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice 3/2 w/ carport under $150k PLUS $7,000 of Flex money! New roof installed in May 2026. Living, dining and kitchen have a great open feel. There is a separate utility room. Large backyard with a dog run.

Key facts

• Large backyard
• Dog run
• New roof

Tags

• NEW ROOF
• LARGE BACKYARD
• DOG RUN
• SEPARATE UTILITY ROOM

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Paved city street with public maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Carport (1 space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected/available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Brick and vinyl siding exterior; Pillar/post/pier foundation; Composition roof; Built area above grade: 1,369
• Exterior features: Front porch; Fenced backyard; Exterior storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric range; Gas water heater
• Bedrooms: 6 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Flooring: Carpet; Combination flooring; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Natural gas heating; Has cooling (other)
• Interior features: Storage; Dog run
• Laundry & utility: Dedicated laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-286/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $145k (2.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $130k (12.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $130k (12.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#37 in TX, #1,749 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime F.
• Lubbock ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #481 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Stewart El (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 405 students, 87% FRL); Coronado H S (math 34% / reading 38%, grade F, #930 of 1,632 statewide, top 57%, 1,960 students, 66% FRL) — zoned schools average 76% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 91 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 45% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 2,219 units permitted in Lubbock County in 2024 (252 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($49k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lubbock County population projected at +39% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($145k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $130,434 (12.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.10%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.68%
• DSCR: 0.97
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $161,996
• List price: $149,500
• Delta: -7.71%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-28,838
• Equity at exit: $22,291

10-year hold

• IRR: -19.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-39,152
• Equity at exit: $12,926

Cash invested: $41,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79414

• Home prices YoY: -27.8%
• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,304 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$784
• Tax from tax record: −$208 /mo · $2,496/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$274
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,335

Max offer price $145,286

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $61	-5% $18	+0% $-24	+5% $-66	+10% $-108
Rent	-10% $-127	-5% $-75	+0% $-24	+5% $28	+10% $79
Rate	-1.0pp $51	-0.5pp $14	base $-24	+0.5pp $-63	+1.0pp $-102

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,375
• Closing costs: $4,485
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4907 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	45d	1	0.17mi
4907 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1196	$1,200	$1.00	45d	1	0.20mi
4907 36th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	1020	$1,095	$1.07	15d	1	0.21mi
5003 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1501	$1,550	$1.03	15d	1	0.22mi
4817 40th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1254	$1,300	$1.04	15d	1	0.22mi
5024 35th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1364	$1,300	$0.95	23d	1	0.26mi
4818 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1285	$1,400	$1.09	23d	1	0.28mi
5214 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	45d	1	0.29mi
5304 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	45d	1	0.31mi
5306 38th St Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	922	$825	$0.89	45d	1	0.32mi
4801 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1424	$1,275	$0.90	23d	1	0.33mi
5220 41st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,400	$0.91	23d	1	0.35mi
4815 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1282	$1,500	$1.17	23d	1	0.35mi
5101 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,350	$1.16	23d	1	0.35mi
4819 44th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,300	$0.92	45d	1	0.39mi
5318 39th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1736	$1,375	$0.79	15d	1	0.39mi
4803 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1412	$1,200	$0.85	23d	1	0.39mi
4702 37th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	900	$1,150	$1.28	15d	1	0.43mi
5002 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1369	$1,450	$1.06	45d	1	0.44mi
4916 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$1,450	$1.05	15d	1	0.45mi
4707 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1053	$1,049	$1.00	15d	1	0.45mi
4708 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1249	$1,350	$1.08	45d	1	0.47mi
5017 46th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1753	$1,600	$0.91	45d	1	0.47mi
4619 43rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	1404	$1,500	$1.07	45d	1	0.52mi
4926 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1354	$1,500	$1.11	23d	1	0.56mi
4606 35th St Lubbock, TX	4.0	2.0	1684	$1,800	$1.07	45d	1	0.58mi
5415 42nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1417	$1,450	$1.02	23d	1	0.58mi
3333 Toledo Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0–1.5	924	$741	$0.80	15d	7	0.61mi
5302 48th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,450	$1.06	23d	1	0.63mi
4705 Albany Ave Lubbock, TX	2.0	2.0	926	$742	$0.80	15d	5	0.65mi
5406 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1400	$695	$0.50	45d	1	0.65mi
5433 40th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.5	978	$800	$0.82	45d	1	0.66mi
4702 31st St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$1,450	$0.91	45d	1	0.66mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	45d	1	0.67mi
4510 35th St Unit A Lubbock, TX	2.0	1.0	888	$750	$0.84	23d	1	0.67mi
5204 50th St Lubbock, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1050	$1,150	$1.10	15d	2	0.71mi
5416 36th St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1375	$1,295	$0.94	45d	1	0.71mi
4601 32nd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.0	928	$995	$1.07	15d	1	0.72mi
4430 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,100	$0.78	45d	1	0.72mi
4428 33rd St Lubbock, TX	3.0	1.5	1685	$1,375	$0.82	45d	1	0.73mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $149,500 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,500 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,500 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,500 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,500 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,500 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,500 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,500 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,500 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,500 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,500 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,500 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,500 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,500 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,500 Active 17 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,500 Active 16 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,500 Active 15 DOM
18. 2026-05-15
    listed $149,500 Active 206-char remark
19. 2024-12-24
    historical $1,075
20. 2024-10-17
    price $1,075
21. 2024-09-19
    listed $1,175
22. 2024-09-11
    historical $1,175
23. 2024-09-05
    price $1,175
24. 2024-08-22
    listed $1,275
25. 1998-09-25
    soldstatus
26. 1986-08-01
    soldstatus
27. 1984-02-01
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,496 · $208/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,736 · $228/mo
• Expected delta: +$240/yr (+$20/mo · 9.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,652
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,374
• − Property taxes: −$2,496
• − Insurance: −$748
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,252
• − Management: −$1,252
• − Depreciation: −$4,349
• Taxable loss: −$2,819
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$677
• After-tax cash flow: $390/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lubbock ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828500
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $39,820
• Composite: 31.44/100
• National rank: #5984
• State rank: #481 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lubbock

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #37
• US rank: #1749

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lubbock, TX
• County: Lubbock County · 293,542 people
• City population: 283,030
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,596
• Household income: $49,057
• Rent vs Own: 65.4% rent · 34.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1330.0

Population outlook (Lubbock County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 345,960 people
• By 2030: 371,449 · +7.4%
• By 2040: 424,539 · +22.7%
• By 2050: 481,150 · +39.1%
• By 2075: 633,467 · +83.1%
• By 2100: 746,853 · +115.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 47% Hispanic / Latino 39% Two or more races 21% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 30%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Serbian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 16%

Political lean MEDSL · Lubbock

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.5) · D 29.7% · R 69.2% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: -36.7pp · 2024: -39.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.5 2020: R+32.2 2016: R+38.4 2012: R+40.9 2008: R+36.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -95.31%
• Current HPI: 247.7963
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.56%
• Metro: Lubbock, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11625.5% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Listed $149,500 LARMLS
• 2024-12-24 Rental Removed $1,075 LARMLS
• 2024-10-17 Price Changed $1,075 LARMLS
• 2024-09-19 Listed for Rent $1,175 LARMLS
• 2024-09-11 Rental Removed $1,175 LARMLS
• 2024-09-05 Price Changed $1,175 LARMLS
• 2024-08-22 Listed for Rent $1,275 LARMLS
• 1998-09-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1986-08-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1984-02-01 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,496 · -16.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.