1202 Churchill St · Jacksonville, TX 75766

$140,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,004 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 65 Days on market

Built 1965 $70/sqft · 22% below area Est $179k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.7/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This spacious 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers 2,004 square feet on a generous 0.41-acre lot. New laminate floors run throughout, and you’ll enjoy a large living area plus a cozy den with a fireplace. A two-car carport and ample outdoor space make this perfect for anyone needing room to grow.

Key facts

• Ample outdoor space
• Large living area
• Cozy den

Tags

• NEW LAMINATE FLOORS
• LARGE LIVING AREA
• COZY DEN
• TWO-CAR CARPORT
• AMPLE OUTDOOR SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $196 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.0% vs local median 2.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#452 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: crime D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Jacksonville ISD (town): math 31% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #534 of 826 in TX (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 282 active listings in the ZIP; 39 units permitted in Cherokee County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 9y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 70% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,600 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.98%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.01%
• DSCR: 1.27
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,178
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: -21.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.74×
• Total profit: $-10,182
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $7,223
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75766

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Active inventory: 282
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,420 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$133 /mo · $1,599/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$298
• Net cashflow: $196

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,172

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 65 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 59 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $140,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $140,000 Active 49 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-04-15
    listed $140,000 Active 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    This spacious 3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home offers 2,004 square feet on a generous 0.41-acre lot. New laminate floors run throughout, and you’ll enjoy a large living area plus a cozy den with a fireplace. A two-car carport and ample outdoor space make this perfect for anyone needing room to grow.

17. 2026-02-09
    soldstatus
18. 2025-09-05
    soldstatus
19. 2017-05-17
    soldstatus
20. 2017-04-30
    soldstatus 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    REDUCED $5,000!!! Very roomy home in quiet neighborhood. Has three separate living areas, large 2-car carport and a two storage buildings in back. Very convenient to some schools. Nice shade trees including a beautiful magnolia in the front yard. Woodburning fireplace in the family room. Several rooms have the vintage knotty pine paneling.

21. 2017-04-11
    listed $49,900 343-char remark

    Show marketing remark (343 chars)

    REDUCED $5,000!!! Very roomy home in quiet neighborhood. Has three separate living areas, large 2-car carport and a two storage buildings in back. Very convenient to some schools. Nice shade trees including a beautiful magnolia in the front yard. Woodburning fireplace in the family room. Several rooms have the vintage knotty pine paneling.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,599 · $133/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,562 · $214/mo
• Expected delta: +$963/yr (+$80/mo · 60.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 70% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,045
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$1,599
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,364
• − Management: −$1,364
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $104
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$25
• After-tax cash flow: $2,332/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jacksonville ISD
• NCES district ID: 4824590
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $37,097
• Composite: 29.09/100
• National rank: #6598
• State rank: #534 of 826 in TX

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #452
• US rank: #9160

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, TX
• City population: 25,988
• Population (ZIP): 25,988

Population outlook (Cherokee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,949 people
• By 2030: 51,984 · +0.1%
• By 2040: 51,780 · -0.3%
• By 2050: 51,085 · -1.7%
• By 2075: 47,418 · -8.7%
• By 2100: 39,464 · -24.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 53% Hispanic / Latino 31% Two or more races 16% Black 12% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 29%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 26% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cherokee

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+62.7) · D 18.3% · R 80.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.5pp toward R · 2008: -43.2pp · 2024: -62.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+62.7 2020: R+55.8 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+51.0 2008: R+43.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -38.95%
• Current HPI: 197.5972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+180.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Listed $140,000 BBOR
• 2026-02-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2025-09-05 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2017-04-30 Sold (MLS) — GTAR
• 2017-04-11 Listed $49,900 GTAR

Property tax history

-1.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,599 · +10.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.