2752 Meadow Lake Dr · Toms River, NJ 08755

$389,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,599 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1996 6,098 sqft lot $243/sqft · 11% below area Est $438k · 11% under $227/mo HOA · 7% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.9/30.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

In the desired community of Lake Ridge, this exceptionally well-maintained home offers an open floor plan with vaulted ceilings and neutral colors throughout. The 2-bedroom, 2-bath home also features a sunroom that opens up to a private backyard patio. And if that wasn't enough, this privately gated, beautifully landscaped community, offers resort like living with a modern clubhouse, large pool, pickleball courts, shuffleboard, and endless classes and events that is sure to fill up your calendar! Don't miss out on your opportunity to call this house your HOME!

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Privately gated
• Landscaped community

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• SUNROOM
• PRIVATE BACKYARD PATIO
• PRIVATELY GATED
• LANDSCAPED COMMUNITY
• MODERN CLUBHOUSE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA with monthly fee; Community amenities include exercise room, swimming (pool), and clubhouse; HOA covers trash, pool, and snow removal

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Model: Barrington II; Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Located in the Lake Ridge subdivision (North Dover / Toms River Twp area)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Blinds/Shades; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $389k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-414 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (18.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $313k (19.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $313k (19.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.0% vs local median 3.8% in Toms River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#61 in NJ, #1,538 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute D, cost of living F.
• Toms River Regional School District (suburban): math 18% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #316 of 472 in NJ (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 262 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($88k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($377k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $290k; 34% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $312,782 (19.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.56%
• DSCR: 0.80
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $437,917
• List price: $389,000
• Delta: -11.17%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2725 Brookdale Ct	0.09mi	2/2.0	1,667 (+4%)	0mo	$450,000	$270	88
20 Winding River Rd	0.19mi	2/2.0	1,696 (+6%)	1mo	$415,000	$245	80
2656 Silver Hill Ln	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,727 (+8%)	0mo	$350,000	$203	80
2666 Meadow Lake Dr	0.20mi	2/2.0	1,444 (-10%)	0mo	$399,999	$277	74
2396 Crisfield Cir	0.41mi	2/2.0	1,667 (+4%)	2mo	$424,900	$255	73
3349 Deep River Ln	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,675 (+5%)	1mo	$365,000	$218	71
2570 Little Pine Ct	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,741 (+9%)	1mo	$450,000	$258	68
2357 W Ashfield Ct	0.51mi	2/2.0	1,667 (+4%)	2mo	$480,000	$288	68
45 Deer Chase Ln	0.31mi	2/2.0	1,432 (-10%)	2mo	$360,000	$251	67
2684 Rockport Ln	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,814 (+13%)	1mo	$510,000	$281	64
14 Oakmont Rd	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,745 (+9%)	1mo	$516,500	$296	59
2430 Woodbine Ln	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,814 (+13%)	0mo	$500,000	$276	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-89,239
• Equity at exit: $58,001

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-110,983
• Equity at exit: $33,634

Cash invested: $108,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08755

• Active inventory: 262
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,128 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,040
• Tax from tax record: −$456 /mo · $5,472/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$227
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$657
• Net cashflow: $-414

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,652

Max offer price $315,853

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,250
• Closing costs: $11,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2106 Grassy Hollow Dr Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.5	2022	$2,900	$1.43	18d	1	0.83mi
100 Jumper Dr Toms River, NJ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1502	$2,869	$1.91	1d	25	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $227 · $2,724/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $389,000 Active 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $389,000 Active 38 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $389,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $389,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,000 Active 34 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $389,000 Active 33 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $389,000 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $389,000 Active 29 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $389,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $389,000 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $389,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $389,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $389,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $389,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $389,000 Active 568-char remark
16. 2025-09-04
    price $389,000
17. 2025-07-21
    price $399,900
18. 2025-06-04
    listed $409,000 Active
19. 2007-08-29
    soldstatus $290,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $5,472 · $456/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,579 · $632/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,107/yr (+$176/mo · 38.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,534
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,790
• − Property taxes: −$5,472
• − Insurance: −$1,945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,003
• − Management: −$3,003
• − HOA: −$2,724
• − Depreciation: −$11,316
• Taxable loss: −$11,719
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,813
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,156/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Toms River Regional School District
• NCES district ID: 3416230
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $72,370
• Composite: 29.07/100
• National rank: #6602
• State rank: #316 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Toms River

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #61
• US rank: #1538

Category grades

Amenities A- Commute D Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Toms River, NJ
• County: Ocean County · 439,426 people
• City population: 131,205
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 29,670
• Household income: $87,575
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 529.0

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 8% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -223.51%
• Current HPI: 303.2721
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+34.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $389,000 MOMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $389,000 MOMLS
• 2025-07-21 Price Changed $399,900 MOMLS
• 2025-06-04 Listed $409,000 MOMLS
• 2007-08-29 Sold (Public Records) $290,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,472 · +7.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.