405 S 37th St · Middlesborough, KY 40965

$129,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,908 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 156 Days on market

Built 1949 6,969 sqft lot $68/sqft · 27% below area Est $177k · 27% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.4/30.0
• Appreciation +6.8/10.0
• DSCR +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a home to raise your family? Don't let this one go by! Spacious 4 bedrooms, 2 bath home with a fenced in yard, this one is just the right size for a growing family. Just minutes from the hospital and schools, yet tucked away on a side street with little traffic. Let us show you your new home today! Schedule a showing before it's gone.

Key facts

• Side street
• Minutes from schools
• Fenced in yard

Tags

• FENCED IN YARD
• MINUTES FROM THE HOSPITAL
• MINUTES FROM SCHOOLS
• SIDE STREET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $130k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $26 ($308/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (10.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $114k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.2% in Middlesborough — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#456 in KY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Middlesboro Independent (town): math 14% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #153 of 165 in KY (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 71 active listings in the ZIP; 44 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $6k of equity ($898 loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.6% local appreciation)).
• Bell County population projected at -30% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (3.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 156 days — a 12% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (19%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1949 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 156 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1949 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.85%
• DSCR: 1.04
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $177,397
• List price: $129,900
• Delta: -26.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
140 Chasteen Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,800 (-6%)	4mo	$202,000	$112	81
115 George Ann Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	2,008 (+5%)	9mo	$271,500	$135	65
3306 W Cumberland Ave	0.43mi	3/2.0	2,126 (+11%)	1mo	$340,000	$160	60
3202 West Cumberland Ave	0.50mi	3/2.0	2,044 (+7%)	11mo	$107,500	$53	56
114 George Ann Dr	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,796 (-6%)	19mo	$280,000	$156	54
2523 Exeter Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,680 (-12%)	3mo	$150,000	$89	47
2103 Winchester Ave	0.31mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,100 (+10%)	17mo	$235,000	$112	46
919 Rochester Ave	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,024 (+6%)	9mo	$167,000	$83	44
3800 W Cumberland Ave	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,624 (-15%)	18mo	$178,000	$110	42
2909 W Cumberland Ave	0.71mi	3/2.0	2,000 (+5%)	21mo	$283,250	$142	42
1002 Chester Ave	0.71mi	4/1.0 (+1)	2,073 (+9%)	13mo	$170,000	$82	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.6% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.59×
• Total profit: $21,479
• Equity at exit: $62,854

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.90×
• Total profit: $69,173
• Equity at exit: $100,475

Cash invested: $36,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40965

• Home prices YoY: 2.7%
• Active inventory: 71
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,169 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$681
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$162 /mo · $1,948/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$245
• Net cashflow: $26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,136

Max offer price $129,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,475
• Closing costs: $3,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,900 Active 156 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,900 Active 155 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,900 Active 154 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,900 Active 153 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $129,900 Active 151 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $139,900 Active 150 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $139,900 Active 147 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $139,900 Active 146 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $139,900 Active 145 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $139,900 Active 144 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $139,900 Active 141 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $139,900 Active 140 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $139,900 Active 139 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 138 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $139,900 Active 137 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    price $139,900 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Looking for a home to raise your family? Don't let this one go by! Spacious 4 bedrooms, 2 bath home with a fenced in yard, this one is just the right size for a growing family. Just minutes from the hospital and schools, yet tucked away on a side street with little traffic. Let us show you your new home today! Schedule a showing before it's gone.

17. 2026-05-01
    price $139,900 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Looking for a home to raise your family? Don't let this one go by! Spacious 4 bedrooms, 2 bath home with a fenced in yard, this one is just the right size for a growing family. Just minutes from the hospital and schools, yet tucked away on a side street with little traffic. Let us show you your new home today! Schedule a showing before it's gone.

18. 2026-01-12
    listed $159,900 Active 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Looking for a home to raise your family? Don't let this one go by! Spacious 4 bedrooms, 2 bath home with a fenced in yard, this one is just the right size for a growing family. Just minutes from the hospital and schools, yet tucked away on a side street with little traffic. Let us show you your new home today! Schedule a showing before it's gone.

19. 2026-01-12
    listed $159,900 Active 348-char remark

    Show marketing remark (348 chars)

    Looking for a home to raise your family? Don't let this one go by! Spacious 4 bedrooms, 2 bath home with a fenced in yard, this one is just the right size for a growing family. Just minutes from the hospital and schools, yet tucked away on a side street with little traffic. Let us show you your new home today! Schedule a showing before it's gone.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 8 d/yr ≥100°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,276
• − Property taxes: −$1,948
• − Insurance: −$650
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,122
• − Management: −$1,122
• − Depreciation: −$3,779
• Taxable loss: −$1,872
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$449
• After-tax cash flow: $757/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middlesboro Independent
• NCES district ID: 2104170
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $23,442
• Composite: 18.61/100
• National rank: #8900
• State rank: #153 of 165 in KY

Livability — Middlesborough

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #456
• US rank: #22662

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment F Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middlesborough, KY
• City population: 11,698
• Population (ZIP): 11,698

Population outlook (Bell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,501 people
• By 2030: 22,923 · -6.4%
• By 2040: 19,860 · -18.9%
• By 2050: 17,161 · -30.0%
• By 2075: 12,070 · -50.7%
• By 2100: 8,525 · -65.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 5% Black 3% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Bell

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+68.7) · D 15.2% · R 83.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -68.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+68.7 2020: R+63.2 2016: R+62.2 2012: R+51.7 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.60%
• Current HPI: 134.9069
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-12.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $139,900 ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $139,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $159,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-01-12 Listed $159,900 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $170 · -12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.