222 Daniel Dr · Madisonville, KY 42431

$87,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,144 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 104 Days on market

Built 1950 0.26 ac lot Est $120k · 27% under ↓ 29% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Roof new in 2022. Large Primary on suite bedroom upstairs. Very open floor plan and large level backyard.

Key facts

• 0.26 acre lot
• Garage
• Listed 103 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Concrete parking surface
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential single-family home; Single-story entry level not specified
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Composition roof; 0.26-acre lot

Interior

• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms (1 on the main level)
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Gas water heater
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on the main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $88k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $21 ($255/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $80k (9.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $80k (9.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 4.0% in Madisonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#132 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Hopkins County (town): math 27% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #65 of 165 in KY (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 192 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 122 units permitted in Hopkins County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $608 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hopkins County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 104 days — a 9% lower offer ($80k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $41k (32%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $79,500 (9.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 104 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 10% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.04%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 9.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $120,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20 Bartlett Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,174 (+3%)	3mo	$190,000	$162	70
325 Pride Ave	0.37mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,199 (+5%)	5mo	$45,000	$38	65
771 Sugg St	0.35mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,082 (-5%)	10mo	$121,500	$112	62
170 Murray St	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,036 (-9%)	6mo	$41,000	$40	61
233 Hopewell St	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,109 (-3%)	5mo	$90,000	$81	59
631 Gordon Ave	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,055 (-8%)	12mo	$139,900	$133	59
920 West Broadway St	0.53mi	3/1.0	1,016 (-11%)	2mo	$107,000	$105	56
406 Weldon Ave	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,170 (+2%)	5mo	$152,000	$130	55
512 W Center St	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-6%)	12mo	$15,000	$14	55
514 Wyatt Ave	0.43mi	2/1.0 (-1)	988 (-14%)	9mo	$139,900	$142	44
615 Wyatt Ave	0.57mi	2/1.0 (-1)	984 (-14%)	1mo	$37,000	$38	44
16 S Spring St S	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	992 (-13%)	12mo	$10,500	$11	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-12,879
• Equity at exit: $13,106

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-9,426
• Equity at exit: $7,600

Cash invested: $24,612 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42431

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Active inventory: 192
• Price-to-rent: 9.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $795 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$461
• Tax from tax record: −$109 /mo · $1,311/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$167
• Net cashflow: $21

Break-even live

Break-even rent $768

Max offer price $87,900

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,975
• Closing costs: $2,637
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
901 Princeton Rd Unit 504 Madisonville, KY	2.0	1.0	864	$795	$0.92	13d	1	1.15mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $87,900 Active 104 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $87,900 Active 103 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $87,900 Active 102 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $87,900 Active 101 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $87,900 Active 99 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $87,900 Active 98 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $87,900 Active 95 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $87,900 Active 94 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $87,900 Active 93 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $87,900 Active 92 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $87,900 Active 89 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $87,900 Active 88 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,900 Active 87 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 86 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,900 Active 85 DOM
16. 2026-05-01
    price $99,900
17. 2026-04-02
    price $114,900
18. 2026-03-07
    listed $128,900 Active
19. 2023-03-20
    soldstatus $132,000 Closed 106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (106 chars)

    Roof new in 2022. Large Primary on suite bedroom upstairs. Very open floor plan and large level backyard.

20. 2023-02-18
    status Pending 106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (106 chars)

    Roof new in 2022. Large Primary on suite bedroom upstairs. Very open floor plan and large level backyard.

21. 2022-11-30
    price $135,000 106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (106 chars)

    Roof new in 2022. Large Primary on suite bedroom upstairs. Very open floor plan and large level backyard.

22. 2022-10-28
    listed $139,900 Active 106-char remark

    Show marketing remark (106 chars)

    Roof new in 2022. Large Primary on suite bedroom upstairs. Very open floor plan and large level backyard.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,311 · $109/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,311 · $109/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,540
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,924
• − Property taxes: −$1,311
• − Insurance: −$440
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$763
• − Management: −$763
• − Depreciation: −$2,557
• Taxable loss: −$1,218
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$292
• After-tax cash flow: $547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hopkins County
• NCES district ID: 2102860
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $42,436
• Composite: 29.56/100
• National rank: #6488
• State rank: #65 of 165 in KY

Livability — Madisonville

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #132
• US rank: #6200

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Madisonville, KY
• City population: 27,095
• Population (ZIP): 27,095

Population outlook (Hopkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,164 people
• By 2030: 44,083 · -2.4%
• By 2040: 41,650 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 39,303 · -13.0%
• By 2075: 34,567 · -23.5%
• By 2100: 29,476 · -34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hopkins

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.9) · D 23.9% · R 74.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.0pp toward R · 2008: -24.9pp · 2024: -50.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.9 2020: R+48.0 2016: R+54.0 2012: R+39.9 2008: R+24.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -39.52%
• Current HPI: 220.2269
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

-28.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $99,900 MHCBOR
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $114,900 MHCBOR
• 2026-03-07 Listed $128,900 MHCBOR
• 2023-03-20 Sold (MLS) $132,000 MHCBOR
• 2023-02-18 Pending — MHCBOR
• 2022-11-30 Price Changed $135,000 MHCBOR
• 2022-10-28 Listed $139,900 MHCBOR

Property tax history

+16.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,311 · -0.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.