419 Draconis Ave SE · Ocean Shores, WA 98569

$249,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,264 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 22 Days on market

Built 1968 7,870 sqft lot $198/sqft · 29% below area Est $431k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Tucked away on a quiet dead-end street near the elementary school, this coastal retreat offers a peaceful setting with access to the Weatherwax Trail at the end of Draconis Avenue. With a little TLC and sweat equity, this property presents an excellent opportunity for a beach getaway or full-time residence - move in now and update over time to suit your vision. The main home showcases classic beach cabin charm, featuring 2 bedrooms upstairs, with a comfortable living area, kitchen, full bathroom, utility room, and additional bedroom or flex space on the main level. The living space includes existing drop ceiling panels that conceal a beautiful open beam ceiling - ready to be revealed and re

Key facts

• Large deck
• Open beam ceiling
• Grassy yard

Tags

• ACCESS TO WEATHERWAX TRAIL
• OPEN BEAM CEILING
• FORMER PHOTOGRAPHY DARKROOM
• LARGE DECK
• GRASSY YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: Community amenities include airport/runway, athletic court, boat launch, club house, golf, park, playground, trails, and CCRs; Community pool (community)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (has garage); Covered parking space (1); Uncovered parking for 4 vehicles; RV parking available; Driveway; Garage approx. 480 sq ft
• Utilities: Electric energy source; Public water (City of OS); Sewer connected (City of OS); Power provided by GH PUD
• Home design: Single-family residence; One and one-half story; Entry on the main level; East-facing; Has a view; Built on lot; Average condition
• Construction: Wood construction; Composition roof; Poured concrete foundation; Built as a house (structure type)
• Exterior features: Wood exterior/wood products; Deck; Garden space; Cable TV and high-speed internet available; Level topography; Dead-end street, paved; RV parking

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator; Stove/Range
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms (all on the main level); Bonus room located in the garage
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with bathtub and shower (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace (wood burning); Loft; Water heater
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Utility room on the main level; Electric water heater in closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $131 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $210k (16.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $210k (16.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 3.1% in Ocean Shores — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#424 in WA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A; Watch: crime C-, health & safety C-, amenities F.
• North Beach School District (rural): math 32% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #236 of 291 in WA (top 81%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 63% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ocean Shores Elementary (240 students, 76% FRL); North Beach Senior High School (177 students, 63% FRL).
• Market conditions: 653 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 297 units permitted in Grays Harbor County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 43% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Grays Harbor County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 22 days — a 2% lower offer ($246k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $209,716 (16.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.25%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $430,800
• List price: $249,900
• Delta: -41.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
434 Snahapish Ave SE	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,288 (+2%)	2mo	$329,000	$255	86
367 Eridani Loop SE	0.15mi	3/3.0	1,256 (-1%)	3mo	$290,000	$231	81
214 S Narwhal Loop SW	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,200 (-5%)	2mo	$335,000	$279	57
401 Canal Dr SE	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,440 (+14%)	2mo	$530,000	$368	56
465 Centaurus Ave SW	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,378 (+9%)	4mo	$335,000	$243	51
209 S Oar Loop SW	0.72mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,224 (-3%)	5mo	$275,500	$225	50
152 Calawah St SW	0.57mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,162 (-8%)	4mo	$400,000	$344	48
141 Taurus Blvd SW	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,416 (+12%)	4mo	$464,900	$328	47
331 Harbor View Loop SE	0.47mi	3/3.0	1,432 (+13%)	1mo	$475,000	$332	47
457 Centaurus Ave SW	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,420 (+12%)	3mo	$315,000	$222	46
420 Cygnus Ave SW	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,453 (+15%)	0mo	$420,400	$289	43
163 Wishkah St SW	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,132 (-10%)	2mo	$305,000	$269	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-32,214
• Equity at exit: $37,261

10-year hold

• IRR: -3.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.75×
• Total profit: $-17,644
• Equity at exit: $21,607

Cash invested: $69,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98569

• Home prices YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 653
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,097 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$111 /mo · $1,328/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$440
• Net cashflow: $131

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,931

Max offer price $249,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $273	-5% $202	+0% $131	+5% $61	+10% $-10
Rent	-10% $-34	-5% $49	+0% $131	+5% $214	+10% $297
Rate	-1.0pp $257	-0.5pp $195	base $131	+0.5pp $67	+1.0pp $1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,475
• Closing costs: $7,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
677 Lake Island Ave SE Ocean Shores, WA	3.0	2.0	1352	$2,600	$1.92	44d	1	0.87mi

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $249,900 Pending 22 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,900 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,900 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-05
   days on market $249,900 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $249,900 Active 17 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $249,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $249,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   days on market $249,900 Active 14 DOM
9. 2026-05-30
   days on market $249,900 Active 13 DOM
10. 2026-05-12
    status Pending
11. 2026-05-05
    listed $249,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,328 · $111/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,449 · $204/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,121/yr (+$93/mo · 84.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥72°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,166
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,998
• − Property taxes: −$1,328
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,013
• − Management: −$2,013
• − Depreciation: −$7,270
• Taxable loss: −$2,706
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$649
• After-tax cash flow: $2,227/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Beach School District
• NCES district ID: 5305700
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,966
• Composite: 34.46/100
• National rank: #10153
• State rank: #236 of 291 in WA

Livability — Ocean Shores

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #424
• US rank: #16852

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime C- Employment C Housing A Health & safety C- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ocean Shores, WA
• County: Grays Harbor County · 44,693 people
• City population: 7,187
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• Population (ZIP): 7,489
• Household income: $58,378
• Rent vs Own: 17.0% rent · 83.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 172.0

Population outlook (Grays Harbor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 66,443 people
• By 2030: 63,255 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 56,466 · -15.0%
• By 2050: 50,516 · -24.0%
• By 2075: 39,296 · -40.9%
• By 2100: 31,142 · -53.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3% Native American 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 8% Iranian 5% Lithuanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 2% German/W. Germanic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Grays Harbor

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+6.0) · D 45.6% · R 51.6% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 14.6pp · 2024: -6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+6.0 2020: R+6.6 2016: R+7.1 2012: D+14.0 2008: D+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -13.33%
• Current HPI: 380.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Aberdeen, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-24 Relisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-12 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-05 Listed $249,900 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,328 · -28.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.