6983 County Road 304 · Breckenridge, TX 76424

$104,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,458 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 89 Days on market

Built 1946 0.36 ac lot $72/sqft · 40% below area Est $176k · 40% under ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.9/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rare chance to own a waterfront lake property with incredible potential on the shores of Hubbard Creek Lake. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a spacious lot with beautiful views with direct access to peaceful lake living. The home is in need of major repairs and is being sold as-is, making it ideal for investors or buyers looking to renovate or create their own custom new lake retreat. With the right vision, this property could be transformed into a stunning getaway, rental, or full-time lake home. A spacious 720 sq ft detached garage and or shop adds valuable storage or workspace that has concrete pad with electricity perfect for parking that boat or all other storage needs. The large yard provides plenty of room for outdoor entertaining and is situated in a quiet area of Hubbard Creek Lake. A water meter is in place and electricity is available and a septic tank exists on the property. Priced to sell, don't miss your own chance to own waterfront property!

Key facts

• Concrete pad
• Outdoor entertaining
• Spacious lot

Tags

• WATERFRONT LAKE PROPERTY
• DIRECT ACCESS TO LAKE
• SPACIOUS LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• CONCRETE PAD
• OUTDOOR ENTERTAINING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $164 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $99k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 3.6% in Breckenridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#695 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Breckenridge ISD (town): math 36% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #551 of 826 in TX (top 67%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; 2 units permitted in Stephens County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($725 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (1.8% local appreciation)).
• Stephens County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (1.8% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 89 days — a 6% lower offer ($99k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1946 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $98,606 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 89 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1946 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.71%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $175,875
• List price: $104,900
• Delta: -40.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

1.8% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $16,661
• Equity at exit: $40,255

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.81×
• Total profit: $53,241
• Equity at exit: $57,120

Cash invested: $29,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76424

• Home prices YoY: 1.6%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 7.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,210 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$550
• Tax from tax record: −$198 /mo · $2,372/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $164

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,002

Max offer price $104,900

Occupancy floor 81%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,225
• Closing costs: $3,147
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $104,900 Active 89 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $104,900 Active 88 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $104,900 Active 87 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $104,900 Active 86 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $104,900 Active 84 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $104,900 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $104,900 Active 80 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,900 Active 79 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $104,900 Active 78 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $104,900 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $104,900 Active 74 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $104,900 Active 73 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $104,900 Active 72 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $104,900 Active 71 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    price $134,000 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Rare chance to own a waterfront lake property with incredible potential on the shores of Hubbard Creek Lake. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a spacious lot with beautiful views with direct access to peaceful lake living. The home is in need of major repairs and is being sold as-is, making it ideal for investors or buyers looking to renovate or create their own custom new lake retreat. With the right vision, this property could be transformed into a stunning getaway, rental, or full-time lake home. A spacious 720 sq ft detached garage and or shop adds valuable storage or workspace that has concrete pad with electricity perfect for parking that boat or all other storage needs. The large yard provides plenty of room for outdoor entertaining and is situated in a quiet area of Hubbard Creek Lake. A water meter is in place and electricity is available and a septic tank exists on the property. Priced to sell, don't miss your own chance to own waterfront property!

16. 2026-03-11
    listed $149,000 Active 974-char remark

    Show marketing remark (974 chars)

    Rare chance to own a waterfront lake property with incredible potential on the shores of Hubbard Creek Lake. This 2-bedroom, 1-bath home sits on a spacious lot with beautiful views with direct access to peaceful lake living. The home is in need of major repairs and is being sold as-is, making it ideal for investors or buyers looking to renovate or create their own custom new lake retreat. With the right vision, this property could be transformed into a stunning getaway, rental, or full-time lake home. A spacious 720 sq ft detached garage and or shop adds valuable storage or workspace that has concrete pad with electricity perfect for parking that boat or all other storage needs. The large yard provides plenty of room for outdoor entertaining and is situated in a quiet area of Hubbard Creek Lake. A water meter is in place and electricity is available and a septic tank exists on the property. Priced to sell, don't miss your own chance to own waterfront property!

17. 2025-12-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,372 · $198/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,372 · $198/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 22% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,518
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,876
• − Property taxes: −$2,372
• − Insurance: −$524
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,161
• − Management: −$1,161
• − Depreciation: −$3,052
• Taxable income: $371
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$89
• After-tax cash flow: $1,882/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Breckenridge ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811220
• Math proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $40,744
• Composite: 28.66/100
• National rank: #6700
• State rank: #551 of 826 in TX

Livability — Breckenridge

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #695
• US rank: #12987

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 8,626

Population outlook (Stephens County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,625 people
• By 2030: 11,029 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 11,827 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 12,609 · +18.7%
• By 2075: 13,855 · +30.4%
• By 2100: 13,067 · +23.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Hispanic / Latino 27% Two or more races 12% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 25%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Stephens

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+79.3) · D 10.2% · R 89.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -63.6pp · 2024: -79.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+79.3 2020: R+78.6 2016: R+77.8 2012: R+70.9 2008: R+63.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.80%
• Current HPI: 110.8496
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $134,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Listed $149,000 NTREIS
• 2025-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+8.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,372 · -0.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.