2051 Palo Alto Ave · The Villages, FL 32159

$370,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,908 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 20 Days on market

Built 1996 5,670 sqft lot Est $427k · 13% under $204/mo HOA · 5% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.9/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.4/10.0
• 1% rule +6.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Completely remodeled Vera Cruz featuring 3 bedrooms and two baths. This spacious 1,900 square foot home has been remodeled and updated from top to bottom and nothing was spared. Entering the home the first thing you notice are the porcelain tile floors throughout the home and no carpet. The home offers you a beautiful canvas to decorate and pick the colors you desire and no concern about matching the floors. The kitchen boast all new stainless steel appliance and granite counter tops with plenty of room for a dinette nestled in the bay windows, perfect for that morning cup of coffee. The living/dining area offers space and options on how to decorate your main living area. The master bedroom and ensuite offer the perfect get away with a custom luxury shower featuring a rain forest shower, hand wand and a 6-jet body shower panel. Two closets including one walk in closet provides plenty of room for storage. On the other side of the home is two spacious bedroom and another bathroom with a custom luxury shower. We are not done a finished 13’ x 10’ room off the living room is a perfect place for an office, craft room or a place for watching TV. This home offers many options to make it your perfect place to live in The Villages! If you enjoy mature landscaping and trees this is the area of The Villages you want to call home. The home is located less than 1/2 mile from the Tierra del Sol Country Club, Rec Center, tennis courts, pool, and Studio Theater. This home is located in the center of so much The Villages has to offer, Glenview Country Club just 3 miles by golf cart, Nancy Lopez Country Club just over 4 miles, 2.5 miles to Spanish Springs and the 441-shopping corridor and 3 miles to Lake Sumter Landing. Bond Paid, HVAC and water heater replaced 2022, roof replaced 2016. * * * With full price offer, seller is amenable to a buyer credit in order to effectuate a 2/1 rate buy down, if financed.   Specific terms to be fully negotiated between buyer and seller at the time of buyer offer * * *

Key facts

• Screened front porch
• Upgraded lighting
• Coat closet

Tags

• STAMPED CONCRETE DRIVEWAY
• SCREENED FRONT PORCH
• PORCELAIN TILE FLOORING
• COAT CLOSET
• UPGRADED LIGHTING
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $370k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $650 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $370k).
• Recommended offer: $364k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.0% in The Villages — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#431 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, housing A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Sumter (rural): math 61% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #11 of 73 in FL (top 15%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 576 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,961 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (248 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $4,073/mo this rent would consume 84% of the median local household income ($59k/yr) (locally 1047% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $11k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at +45% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 20 days — a 2% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $364,450 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.10% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.40%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.53%
• DSCR: 1.34
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $427,392
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2051 Palo Alto Ave	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,908 (0%)	0mo	$360,000	$189	100
821 San Salvador Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,948 (+2%)	2mo	$580,000	$298	92
1918 Armondo Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,963 (+3%)	1mo	$325,000	$166	91
2052 Palo Alto Ave	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,687 (-12%)	3mo	$500,000	$296	75
2160 Madero Dr	0.28mi	3/2.5	2,088 (+9%)	1mo	$640,000	$307	68
1803 Palo Alto Ave	0.40mi	3/2.0	2,104 (+10%)	1mo	$486,000	$231	63
1952 Palo Alto Ave	0.18mi	2/2.0 (-1)	2,162 (+13%)	2mo	$485,000	$224	63
610 Espana St	0.49mi	3/2.5	2,086 (+9%)	1mo	$555,000	$266	58
913 Soledad Way	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,982 (+4%)	1mo	$444,000	$224	58
602 Juanita Ct	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,776 (-7%)	1mo	$389,000	$219	58
545 Carrera Dr	0.73mi	3/2.5	2,190 (+15%)	1mo	$410,000	$187	39
1605 Chavez Ct	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,638 (-14%)	2mo	$320,000	$195	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.03% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-14,201
• Equity at exit: $55,168

10-year hold

• IRR: 7.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $59,117
• Equity at exit: $31,991

Cash invested: $103,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32159

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 576
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,073 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax from tax record: −$269 /mo · $3,227/yr
• Insurance: −$154
• HOA: −$204
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$855
• Net cashflow: $650

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,250

Max offer price $370,000

Occupancy floor 79%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $92,500
• Closing costs: $11,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2137 Gerardo Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1940	$5,600	$2.89	21d	1	0.17mi
2002 Salinas Ave Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1642	$5,500	$3.35	21d	1	0.20mi
2126 Sansores St Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1748	$3,700	$2.12	21d	1	0.29mi
2006 Cardona Way Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1428	$3,900	$2.73	21d	1	0.56mi
1522 Yucatan Way Unit 1525265P Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1732	$1,829	$1.06	21d	1	0.78mi
532 Carrera Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	3.0	2312	$3,500	$1.51	21d	1	0.82mi
1505 Doria Ln Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	2048	$3,500	$1.71	21d	1	1.00mi
1377 Camero Dr Lady Lake, FL	3.0	2.0	1462	$5,500	$3.76	21d	1	1.06mi
1304 Santa Rosa Ct Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1286	$4,500	$3.50	21d	1	1.19mi
1314 Corona Ave Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1656	$2,500	$1.51	21d	1	1.26mi
623 Arteaga Way Unit 1525262P The Villages, FL	3.0	2.0	1646	$1,896	$1.15	21d	1	1.36mi
943 Mendoza Blvd Lady Lake, FL	2.0	2.0	1268	$5,800	$4.57	24d	1	1.39mi
6367 NE 118th Ave The Villages, FL	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1645	$1,925	$1.17	21d	10	1.41mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $204 · $2,448/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpool

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-04-16
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-27
   listed $370,000 Active
3. 2025-12-20
   historical
4. 2025-10-21
   price $468,000
5. 2025-03-17
   price $478,000
6. 2024-12-02
   listed $488,000 Active
7. 2023-02-13
   soldstatus $430,000 Closed 2102-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2102 chars)

   One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Completely remodeled Vera Cruz featuring 3 bedrooms and two baths. This spacious 1,900 square foot home has been remodeled and updated from top to bottom and nothing was spared. Entering the home the first thing you notice are the porcelain tile floors throughout the home and no carpet. The home offers you a beautiful canvas to decorate and pick the colors you desire and no concern about matching the floors. The kitchen boast all new stainless steel appliance and granite counter tops with plenty of room for a dinette nestled in the bay windows, perfect for that morning cup of coffee. The living/dining area offers space and options on how to decorate your main living area. The master bedroom and ensuite offer the perfect get away with a custom luxury shower featuring a rain forest shower, hand wand and a 6-jet body shower panel. Two closets including one walk in closet provides plenty of room for storage. On the other side of the home is two spacious bedroom and another bathroom with a custom luxury shower. We are not done a finished 13’ x 10’ room off the living room is a perfect place for an office, craft room or a place for watching TV. This home offers many options to make it your perfect place to live in The Villages! If you enjoy mature landscaping and trees this is the area of The Villages you want to call home. The home is located less than 1/2 mile from the Tierra del Sol Country Club, Rec Center, tennis courts, pool, and Studio Theater. This home is located in the center of so much The Villages has to offer, Glenview Country Club just 3 miles by golf cart, Nancy Lopez Country Club just over 4 miles, 2.5 miles to Spanish Springs and the 441-shopping corridor and 3 miles to Lake Sumter Landing. Bond Paid, HVAC and water heater replaced 2022, roof replaced 2016. * * * With full price offer, seller is amenable to a buyer credit in order to effectuate a 2/1 rate buy down, if financed.   Specific terms to be fully negotiated between buyer and seller at the time of buyer offer * * *

8. 2023-02-02
   status Pending 2102-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2102 chars)

   One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Completely remodeled Vera Cruz featuring 3 bedrooms and two baths. This spacious 1,900 square foot home has been remodeled and updated from top to bottom and nothing was spared. Entering the home the first thing you notice are the porcelain tile floors throughout the home and no carpet. The home offers you a beautiful canvas to decorate and pick the colors you desire and no concern about matching the floors. The kitchen boast all new stainless steel appliance and granite counter tops with plenty of room for a dinette nestled in the bay windows, perfect for that morning cup of coffee. The living/dining area offers space and options on how to decorate your main living area. The master bedroom and ensuite offer the perfect get away with a custom luxury shower featuring a rain forest shower, hand wand and a 6-jet body shower panel. Two closets including one walk in closet provides plenty of room for storage. On the other side of the home is two spacious bedroom and another bathroom with a custom luxury shower. We are not done a finished 13’ x 10’ room off the living room is a perfect place for an office, craft room or a place for watching TV. This home offers many options to make it your perfect place to live in The Villages! If you enjoy mature landscaping and trees this is the area of The Villages you want to call home. The home is located less than 1/2 mile from the Tierra del Sol Country Club, Rec Center, tennis courts, pool, and Studio Theater. This home is located in the center of so much The Villages has to offer, Glenview Country Club just 3 miles by golf cart, Nancy Lopez Country Club just over 4 miles, 2.5 miles to Spanish Springs and the 441-shopping corridor and 3 miles to Lake Sumter Landing. Bond Paid, HVAC and water heater replaced 2022, roof replaced 2016. * * * With full price offer, seller is amenable to a buyer credit in order to effectuate a 2/1 rate buy down, if financed.   Specific terms to be fully negotiated between buyer and seller at the time of buyer offer * * *

9. 2022-11-15
   price $459,000 2102-char remark

   Show marketing remark (2102 chars)

   One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Completely remodeled Vera Cruz featuring 3 bedrooms and two baths. This spacious 1,900 square foot home has been remodeled and updated from top to bottom and nothing was spared. Entering the home the first thing you notice are the porcelain tile floors throughout the home and no carpet. The home offers you a beautiful canvas to decorate and pick the colors you desire and no concern about matching the floors. The kitchen boast all new stainless steel appliance and granite counter tops with plenty of room for a dinette nestled in the bay windows, perfect for that morning cup of coffee. The living/dining area offers space and options on how to decorate your main living area. The master bedroom and ensuite offer the perfect get away with a custom luxury shower featuring a rain forest shower, hand wand and a 6-jet body shower panel. Two closets including one walk in closet provides plenty of room for storage. On the other side of the home is two spacious bedroom and another bathroom with a custom luxury shower. We are not done a finished 13’ x 10’ room off the living room is a perfect place for an office, craft room or a place for watching TV. This home offers many options to make it your perfect place to live in The Villages! If you enjoy mature landscaping and trees this is the area of The Villages you want to call home. The home is located less than 1/2 mile from the Tierra del Sol Country Club, Rec Center, tennis courts, pool, and Studio Theater. This home is located in the center of so much The Villages has to offer, Glenview Country Club just 3 miles by golf cart, Nancy Lopez Country Club just over 4 miles, 2.5 miles to Spanish Springs and the 441-shopping corridor and 3 miles to Lake Sumter Landing. Bond Paid, HVAC and water heater replaced 2022, roof replaced 2016. * * * With full price offer, seller is amenable to a buyer credit in order to effectuate a 2/1 rate buy down, if financed.   Specific terms to be fully negotiated between buyer and seller at the time of buyer offer * * *

10. 2022-09-08
    listed $469,000 Active 2102-char remark

    Show marketing remark (2102 chars)

    One or more photo(s) has been virtually staged. Completely remodeled Vera Cruz featuring 3 bedrooms and two baths. This spacious 1,900 square foot home has been remodeled and updated from top to bottom and nothing was spared. Entering the home the first thing you notice are the porcelain tile floors throughout the home and no carpet. The home offers you a beautiful canvas to decorate and pick the colors you desire and no concern about matching the floors. The kitchen boast all new stainless steel appliance and granite counter tops with plenty of room for a dinette nestled in the bay windows, perfect for that morning cup of coffee. The living/dining area offers space and options on how to decorate your main living area. The master bedroom and ensuite offer the perfect get away with a custom luxury shower featuring a rain forest shower, hand wand and a 6-jet body shower panel. Two closets including one walk in closet provides plenty of room for storage. On the other side of the home is two spacious bedroom and another bathroom with a custom luxury shower. We are not done a finished 13’ x 10’ room off the living room is a perfect place for an office, craft room or a place for watching TV. This home offers many options to make it your perfect place to live in The Villages! If you enjoy mature landscaping and trees this is the area of The Villages you want to call home. The home is located less than 1/2 mile from the Tierra del Sol Country Club, Rec Center, tennis courts, pool, and Studio Theater. This home is located in the center of so much The Villages has to offer, Glenview Country Club just 3 miles by golf cart, Nancy Lopez Country Club just over 4 miles, 2.5 miles to Spanish Springs and the 441-shopping corridor and 3 miles to Lake Sumter Landing. Bond Paid, HVAC and water heater replaced 2022, roof replaced 2016. * * * With full price offer, seller is amenable to a buyer credit in order to effectuate a 2/1 rate buy down, if financed.   Specific terms to be fully negotiated between buyer and seller at the time of buyer offer * * *

11. 2022-01-28
    soldstatus $300,000
12. 1996-11-26
    soldstatus $122,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,227 · $269/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,227 · $269/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,878
• − Mortgage interest: −$20,726
• − Property taxes: −$3,227
• − Insurance: −$1,850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,910
• − Management: −$3,910
• − HOA: −$2,448
• − Depreciation: −$10,764
• Taxable income: $2,043
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$490
• After-tax cash flow: $7,314/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter
• NCES district ID: 1201800
• Math proficiency: 61% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,240
• Composite: 51.74/100
• National rank: #1682
• State rank: #11 of 73 in FL

Livability — The Villages

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #431
• US rank: #7363

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: The Villages, FL
• County: Lake County · 364,602 people
• City population: 32,107
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 32,107
• Household income: $58,518
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1047.0

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 161,172 people
• By 2030: 180,083 · +11.7%
• By 2040: 209,892 · +30.2%
• By 2050: 234,186 · +45.3%
• By 2075: 284,602 · +76.6%
• By 2100: 317,039 · +96.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% German/W. Germanic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+37.6) · D 30.9% · R 68.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: -27.0pp · 2024: -37.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+37.6 2020: R+36.1 2016: R+39.2 2012: R+34.9 2008: R+27.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -45.24%
• Current HPI: 237.6208
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.03%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+201.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $370,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-12-20 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-21 Price Changed $468,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-17 Price Changed $478,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-02 Listed $488,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-13 Sold (MLS) $430,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-02-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-15 Price Changed $459,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-09-08 Listed $469,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-01-28 Sold (Public Records) $300,000 Public Records
• 1996-11-26 Sold (Public Records) $122,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,227 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.