425 Godin Ave · Cahokia Heights, IL 62206

$4,750

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 102 Days on market

Built 1928 6,098 sqft lot $8/sqft · 91% below area ↓ 41% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• Built 1928
• Listed 101 days

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $4,750 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$53,439) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $762 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $5k).
• Recommended offer: $4k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 198.8% vs local median 13.6% in Cahokia Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Cahokia CUSD 187 (suburban): math 3% / reading 5% proficiency, ranked #864 of 919 in IL (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 85% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 153 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 783 units permitted in St. Clair County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($34k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $32 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $142 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Clair County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 102 days — a 9% lower offer ($4k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1928 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $4,322 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 102 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1928 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 21.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 198.83%
• Cash-on-cash: 687.64%
• DSCR: 31.60
• GRM: 0.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,439
• List price: $4,750
• Delta: -91.11%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
457 Godin Ave	0.14mi	2/1.0	608 (+6%)	16mo	$95,000	$156	67
227 Nadine St	0.54mi	2/1.0	624 (+8%)	0mo	$100,000	$160	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 36.93×
• Total profit: $47,786
• Equity at exit: $708

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 79.33×
• Total profit: $104,177
• Equity at exit: $411

Cash invested: $1,330 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62206

• Home prices YoY: -20.2%
• Active inventory: 153
• Price-to-rent: 0.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$25
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $71/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $762

Break-even live

Break-even rent $42

Max offer price $4,750

Occupancy floor 19%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,188
• Closing costs: $142
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1002 Upper Cahokia Rd East Saint Louis, IL	3.0	1.0	720	$860	$1.19	14d	1	0.04mi
115 Jerome Ln Unit 3 Sauget, IL	1.0	1.0	700	$700	$1.00	43d	1	0.22mi
211 Judith Ln East Saint Louis, IL	2.0	1.0	672	$995	$1.48	4d	1	0.46mi
1716 # E Unit Loretta Ave unit East St Louis, IL	2.0	1.0	720	$1,000	$1.39	43d	1	1.24mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $4,750 Active 102 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $4,750 Active 101 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $4,750 Active 100 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $4,750 Active 99 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $4,750 Active 97 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $4,750 Active 96 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $4,750 Active 93 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $4,750 Active 92 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $4,750 Active 91 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $4,750 Active 88 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $4,750 Active 87 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $4,750 Active 86 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $4,750 Active 85 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $4,750 Active 84 DOM
15. 2026-03-09
    listed $4,750 Active
16. 2026-03-07
    historical $4,750
17. 2004-12-30
    soldstatus $8,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,075
• − Mortgage interest: −$266
• − Property taxes: −$71
• − Insurance: −$24
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$966
• − Management: −$966
• − Depreciation: −$138
• Taxable income: $9,644
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,315
• After-tax cash flow: $6,831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cahokia CUSD 187
• NCES district ID: 1708040
• Math proficiency: 3% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 5% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $28,028
• Composite: 6.44/100
• National rank: #14827
• State rank: #864 of 919 in IL

Livability — Cahokia Heights

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cahokia Heights, IL
• County: Saint Clair County · 169,691 people
• City population: 19,956
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 12,959
• Household income: $33,838
• Rent vs Own: 44.5% rent · 55.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 729.0

Population outlook (St. Clair County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 250,366 people
• By 2030: 240,511 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 217,391 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 192,699 · -23.0%
• By 2075: 140,637 · -43.8%
• By 2100: 100,499 · -59.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 29% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · China
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Clair

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+7.9) · D 53.0% · R 45.1% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: 22.4pp · 2024: 7.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+7.9 2020: D+8.7 2016: D+5.6 2012: D+14.5 2008: D+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.26%
• Current HPI: 131.5144
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

-40.6% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-09 Listed $4,750 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-07 Coming Soon $4,750 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-12-30 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $574 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.