400 Evans Ave · Keenesburg, CO 80643

$390,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,639 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 188 Days on market

Built 2020 6,098 sqft lot $238/sqft · 8% below area Est $424k · 8% under $40/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.8/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Step into the desirable Gunnison plan in Evans Place subdivision. This popular 3 bed, 2 bath home features a wide open foyer leading into the open floor plan. If you love living in the middle of all the activities during the holidays, you'll love this open kitchen with a beautiful granite island.The gourmet kitchen includes all the appliances and a gas range/oven. Plenty of storage space with a walk-in pantry and cabinets galore. The oversized primary bedroom is tucked away from the other bedrooms allowing for your own oasis. You'll love the fenced yard provides plenty of space for creating your own retreat. There is plenty of opportunity to make this house your home.

Key facts

• Gunnison plan
• Open floor plan
• Granite island

Tags

• GUNNISON PLAN
• EVANS PLACE SUBDIVISION
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• GRANITE ISLAND
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $390k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $677 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $390k).
• Recommended offer: $343k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 5.8% in Keenesburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#296 in CO) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, employment A, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Weld County School District Re-3J (rural): math 18% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #64 of 86 in CO (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 3,170 units permitted in Weld County in 2024 (278 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Weld County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 188 days — a 12% lower offer ($343k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $343,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 188 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.38%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.44%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $424,205
• List price: $390,000
• Delta: -8.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
307 Thomas Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,639 (0%)	3mo	$378,500	$231	89
525 Porter Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,639 (0%)	6mo	$394,900	$241	87
402 Quincy Rr Ave	0.05mi	3/3.0	1,751 (+7%)	0mo	$420,000	$240	82
310 Evans Ave	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,473 (-10%)	2mo	$379,900	$258	74
310 Quincy Rr Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,473 (-10%)	4mo	$399,000	$271	72
507 Porter Ave	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,476 (-10%)	6mo	$386,000	$262	68
215 N Stewart St	0.22mi	3/2.0	1,472 (-10%)	5mo	$384,900	$261	68
201 N Stewart St	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,472 (-10%)	4mo	$400,000	$272	68
325 Thomas Ave	0.23mi	3/3.0	1,819 (+11%)	5mo	$425,900	$234	63
207 Clayton Ave	0.29mi	3/3.0	1,819 (+11%)	2mo	$321,100	$177	63
505 E Woodward Ave	0.32mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,808 (+10%)	0mo	$345,000	$191	59
315 S Lambert St	0.64mi	3/3.0	1,482 (-10%)	6mo	$404,100	$273	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-20,100
• Equity at exit: $58,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.35×
• Total profit: $37,853
• Equity at exit: $33,720

Cash invested: $109,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 38 Tenant-Leaning
• State Colorado: 38 Tenant-Leaning · D+4
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2023 reforms: 10-day cure, mandated notice, source-of-income protected. Courts backlogged in Denver.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 80643

• Home prices YoY: -5.7%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $4,041 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,045
• Tax from tax record: −$267 /mo · $3,204/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$40
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$849
• Net cashflow: $677

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,183

Max offer price $390,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $898	-5% $788	+0% $677	+5% $567	+10% $457
Rent	-10% $358	-5% $518	+0% $677	+5% $837	+10% $997
Rate	-1.0pp $874	-0.5pp $777	base $677	+0.5pp $576	+1.0pp $474

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,500
• Closing costs: $11,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $40 · $480/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $390,000 Active 188 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $390,000 Active 187 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $390,000 Active 186 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $390,000 Active 185 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $390,000 Active 183 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $390,000 Active 179 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $390,000 Active 178 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $390,000 Active 177 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $390,000 Active 174 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $390,000 Active 173 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $390,000 Active 172 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $390,000 Active 171 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $390,000 Active 170 DOM
14. 2026-04-16
    status Active 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Step into the desirable Gunnison plan in Evans Place subdivision. This popular 3 bed, 2 bath home features a wide open foyer leading into the open floor plan. If you love living in the middle of all the activities during the holidays, you'll love this open kitchen with a beautiful granite island.The gourmet kitchen includes all the appliances and a gas range/oven. Plenty of storage space with a walk-in pantry and cabinets galore. The oversized primary bedroom is tucked away from the other bedrooms allowing for your own oasis. You'll love the fenced yard provides plenty of space for creating your own retreat. There is plenty of opportunity to make this house your home.

15. 2026-04-09
    historical Active Under Contract 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Step into the desirable Gunnison plan in Evans Place subdivision. This popular 3 bed, 2 bath home features a wide open foyer leading into the open floor plan. If you love living in the middle of all the activities during the holidays, you'll love this open kitchen with a beautiful granite island.The gourmet kitchen includes all the appliances and a gas range/oven. Plenty of storage space with a walk-in pantry and cabinets galore. The oversized primary bedroom is tucked away from the other bedrooms allowing for your own oasis. You'll love the fenced yard provides plenty of space for creating your own retreat. There is plenty of opportunity to make this house your home.

16. 2025-12-08
    listed $390,000 Active 676-char remark

    Show marketing remark (676 chars)

    Step into the desirable Gunnison plan in Evans Place subdivision. This popular 3 bed, 2 bath home features a wide open foyer leading into the open floor plan. If you love living in the middle of all the activities during the holidays, you'll love this open kitchen with a beautiful granite island.The gourmet kitchen includes all the appliances and a gas range/oven. Plenty of storage space with a walk-in pantry and cabinets galore. The oversized primary bedroom is tucked away from the other bedrooms allowing for your own oasis. You'll love the fenced yard provides plenty of space for creating your own retreat. There is plenty of opportunity to make this house your home.

17. 2021-01-22
    soldstatus $352,900 Closed 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    From the moment you step into the Gunnison floor plan, a long foyer flows into the spacious family room and open kitchen. The kitchen features a spacious island, beautiful granite countertops and a chef-ready kitchen with appliances included. For those who enjoy hosting, the dining room is the perfect place to enjoy a dinner party. The expansive master suite is a true oasis at the end of the day. The huge bedroom features a private attached full bathroon, and the walk-in closet is incredible. Last but not least, the two additional bedrooms and additional bathroom provide plenty of extra space!

18. 2021-01-22
    soldstatus $352,900 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    From the moment you step into the Gunnison floor plan, a long foyer flows into the spacious family room and open kitchen. The kitchen features a spacious island, beautiful granite countertops and a chef-ready kitchen with appliances included. For those who enjoy hosting, the dining room is the perfect place to enjoy a dinner party. The expansive master suite is a true oasis at the end of the day. The huge bedroom features a private attached full bathroon, and the walk-in closet is incredible. Last but not least, the two additional bedrooms and additional bathroom provide plenty of extra space!

19. 2021-01-09
    status Pending 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    From the moment you step into the Gunnison floor plan, a long foyer flows into the spacious family room and open kitchen. The kitchen features a spacious island, beautiful granite countertops and a chef-ready kitchen with appliances included. For those who enjoy hosting, the dining room is the perfect place to enjoy a dinner party. The expansive master suite is a true oasis at the end of the day. The huge bedroom features a private attached full bathroon, and the walk-in closet is incredible. Last but not least, the two additional bedrooms and additional bathroom provide plenty of extra space!

20. 2020-12-10
    price $353,900 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    From the moment you step into the Gunnison floor plan, a long foyer flows into the spacious family room and open kitchen. The kitchen features a spacious island, beautiful granite countertops and a chef-ready kitchen with appliances included. For those who enjoy hosting, the dining room is the perfect place to enjoy a dinner party. The expansive master suite is a true oasis at the end of the day. The huge bedroom features a private attached full bathroon, and the walk-in closet is incredible. Last but not least, the two additional bedrooms and additional bathroom provide plenty of extra space!

21. 2020-12-04
    price $352,900 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    From the moment you step into the Gunnison floor plan, a long foyer flows into the spacious family room and open kitchen. The kitchen features a spacious island, beautiful granite countertops and a chef-ready kitchen with appliances included. For those who enjoy hosting, the dining room is the perfect place to enjoy a dinner party. The expansive master suite is a true oasis at the end of the day. The huge bedroom features a private attached full bathroon, and the walk-in closet is incredible. Last but not least, the two additional bedrooms and additional bathroom provide plenty of extra space!

22. 2020-12-04
    status Active 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    From the moment you step into the Gunnison floor plan, a long foyer flows into the spacious family room and open kitchen. The kitchen features a spacious island, beautiful granite countertops and a chef-ready kitchen with appliances included. For those who enjoy hosting, the dining room is the perfect place to enjoy a dinner party. The expansive master suite is a true oasis at the end of the day. The huge bedroom features a private attached full bathroon, and the walk-in closet is incredible. Last but not least, the two additional bedrooms and additional bathroom provide plenty of extra space!

23. 2020-11-20
    historical 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    From the moment you step into the Gunnison floor plan, a long foyer flows into the spacious family room and open kitchen. The kitchen features a spacious island, beautiful granite countertops and a chef-ready kitchen with appliances included. For those who enjoy hosting, the dining room is the perfect place to enjoy a dinner party. The expansive master suite is a true oasis at the end of the day. The huge bedroom features a private attached full bathroon, and the walk-in closet is incredible. Last but not least, the two additional bedrooms and additional bathroom provide plenty of extra space!

24. 2020-10-30
    listed $360,900 Active 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    From the moment you step into the Gunnison floor plan, a long foyer flows into the spacious family room and open kitchen. The kitchen features a spacious island, beautiful granite countertops and a chef-ready kitchen with appliances included. For those who enjoy hosting, the dining room is the perfect place to enjoy a dinner party. The expansive master suite is a true oasis at the end of the day. The huge bedroom features a private attached full bathroon, and the walk-in closet is incredible. Last but not least, the two additional bedrooms and additional bathroom provide plenty of extra space!

25. 2020-10-30
    listed $353,900 600-char remark

    Show marketing remark (600 chars)

    From the moment you step into the Gunnison floor plan, a long foyer flows into the spacious family room and open kitchen. The kitchen features a spacious island, beautiful granite countertops and a chef-ready kitchen with appliances included. For those who enjoy hosting, the dining room is the perfect place to enjoy a dinner party. The expansive master suite is a true oasis at the end of the day. The huge bedroom features a private attached full bathroon, and the walk-in closet is incredible. Last but not least, the two additional bedrooms and additional bathroom provide plenty of extra space!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,204 · $267/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,204 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $48,488
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,846
• − Property taxes: −$3,204
• − Insurance: −$1,950
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,879
• − Management: −$3,879
• − HOA: −$480
• − Depreciation: −$11,345
• Taxable income: $1,905
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$457
• After-tax cash flow: $7,672/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Weld County School District Re-3J
• NCES district ID: 0804920
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $60,814
• Composite: 22.63/100
• National rank: #8062
• State rank: #64 of 86 in CO

Livability — Keenesburg

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #296
• US rank: #20911

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime B Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Keenesburg, CO
• City population: 4,257
• Population (ZIP): 4,257

Population outlook (Weld County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 351,957 people
• By 2030: 385,304 · +9.5%
• By 2040: 451,818 · +28.4%
• By 2050: 514,478 · +46.2%
• By 2075: 648,733 · +84.3%
• By 2100: 720,400 · +104.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 18% Two or more races 7% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 14%

Political lean MEDSL · Weld

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.0) · D 38.2% · R 59.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.0 2020: R+18.0 2016: R+22.4 2012: R+13.2 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -17.47%
• Current HPI: 287.5564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.95%
• F500 in state: 14

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology Distribution	1	$31B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$18B
▸Packaging	1	$14B
▸Healthcare	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$10B
▸Technology	1	$4B

Price history

+8.1% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Relisted — IRES
• 2026-04-09 Contingent — IRES
• 2025-12-08 Listed $390,000 IRES
• 2021-01-22 Sold (MLS) $352,900 IRES
• 2021-01-22 Sold (MLS) $352,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-01-09 Pending — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-10 Price Changed $353,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-04 Price Changed $352,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-04 Relisted — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-11-20 Listing Removed — REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-10-30 Listed $353,900 IRES
• 2020-10-30 Listed $360,900 REColorado as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+131.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,204 · -17.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.