294 Mildahn Rd · Gananda, NY 14502

$349,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily · 35 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 0.31 ac lot $242/sqft · 8% below area Est $378k · 8% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.9/15.0
• Schools +6.8/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Looking for a NEW build with less wait and less cost?! This 1.5 year old home in the PENFIELD school district offers 1,440 sq. ft. (sq footage per building plans) of pristine, move-in-ready living space. The sun-drenched main level features an open-concept great room that flows effortlessly into a modern kitchen and dining area boasting sleek white cabinetry, stainless steel appliances, and durable luxury vinyl flooring. Retreat upstairs to find three generous bedrooms, including a primary suite with a private en-suite bath and a spacious walk-in closet, plus the ultimate convenience of a dedicated second-floor laundry room. Situated on a 0.31-acre lot, the exterior features a blacktop turn

Key facts

• 0.31 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2024

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Two-story existing home
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl and wood siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Full basement with walk-out access and sump pump
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Rectangular residential lot (approx. 0.31 acres; 83 x 178); City street frontage

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven; Electric range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on upper level
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl; Varied flooring types
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Programmable thermostat
• Interior features: Separate formal living room; Kitchen open to family room; Sliding glass doors; Bath in primary bedroom; Programmable thermostat
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on upper level; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $349k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-42 ($-502/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $343k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $300k (14.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $300k (14.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 3.2% in Gananda — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Penfield Central School District (suburban): math 77% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #67 of 590 in NY (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 11% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Harris Hill Elementary School (math 87% / reading 87%, grade A+, #69 of 2,108 statewide, top 4%, 427 students, 16% FRL); Bay Trail Middle School (math 59% / reading 78%, grade A, #94 of 729 statewide, top 13%, 1,113 students, 23% FRL); Penfield Senior High School (math 98% / reading 72%, grade A, #369 of 1,100 statewide, top 34%, 1,424 students, 25% FRL).
• Market conditions: 49 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 259 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (90 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -24% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($339k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $300,000 (14.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $377,726
• List price: $349,000
• Delta: -7.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
294 Mildahn Rd	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,440 (0%)	1mo	$3,000	$2	99
201 Plumegrass Run	0.08mi	3/2.5	1,463 (+2%)	12mo	$340,000	$232	83
441 Parkside Trl	0.49mi	3/2.5	1,556 (+8%)	1mo	$412,500	$265	63
365 Highfield Dr	0.38mi	3/1.5	1,476 (+2%)	23mo	$271,500	$184	55
562 Crows Nest Ln	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,560 (+8%)	1mo	$338,000	$217	53
3504 Scenic Way	0.53mi	3/3.5	1,578 (+10%)	4mo	$355,000	$225	52
361 Rt-441	0.56mi	3/1.0	1,421 (-1%)	18mo	$213,000	$150	50
573 Beaver Creek Rd	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,560 (+8%)	8mo	$302,000	$194	41
447 Walworth Penfield Rd	0.69mi	3/1.5	1,364 (-5%)	21mo	$250,000	$183	38
605 Smugglers Cv	0.73mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,467 (+2%)	23mo	$300,000	$204	37
3693 Stalker Rd	0.70mi	3/2.5	1,640 (+14%)	9mo	$299,900	$183	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-59,174
• Equity at exit: $52,037

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-54,777
• Equity at exit: $30,175

Cash invested: $97,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14502

• Home prices YoY: -26.0%
• Active inventory: 49
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$436 /mo · $5,235/yr
• Insurance: −$145
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $-42

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,053

Max offer price $342,943

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $199	-5% $79	+0% $-42	+5% $-162	+10% $-283
Rent	-10% $-279	-5% $-160	+0% $-42	+5% $77	+10% $195
Rate	-1.0pp $134	-0.5pp $47	base $-42	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-224

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,250
• Closing costs: $10,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
294 Mildahn Rd Walworth, NY	3.0	2.5	1440	$3,000	$2.08	20d	1	0.01mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $349,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $349,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $349,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $349,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-04-29
   listed $349,900 Active 997-char remark
6. 2026-04-01
   historical
7. 2026-03-29
   historical
8. 2026-03-29
   historical
9. 2026-03-18
   price $369,500
10. 2026-03-09
    listed $369,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,549
• − Property taxes: −$5,235
• − Insurance: −$1,745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,880
• − Management: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$10,153
• Taxable loss: −$6,442
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,546
• After-tax cash flow: $1,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This 1.5-year-old home in the Penfield school district is move-in ready with good condition and minimal maintenance required. It offers a good ROI with updates focusing on curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Resale Kitchen appliances maintenance — Keeps appliances in top condition for potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Fresh paint enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Resale Kitchen appliances maintenance — Keeps appliances in top condition for potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Penfield Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622710
• Math proficiency: 77% ▼ -3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $74,802
• Composite: 68.37/100
• National rank: #347
• State rank: #67 of 590 in NY

Livability — Gananda

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Gananda, NY
• Population (ZIP): 10,515

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 85,662 people
• By 2030: 81,945 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 73,735 · -13.9%
• By 2050: 65,029 · -24.1%
• By 2075: 47,451 · -44.6%
• By 2100: 31,574 · -63.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Asian 3% Black 1% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 8% Romanian 7% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.1) · D 38.5% · R 61.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -23.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.1 2020: R+19.6 2016: R+26.1 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.25%
• Current HPI: 242.5682
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Price Changed $349,000 UNYREIS
• 2026-04-29 Listed $349,900 UNYREIS
• 2026-04-01 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-29 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-29 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2026-03-18 Price Changed $369,500 UNYREIS
• 2026-03-09 Listed $369,900 UNYREIS