31102 Azure Waters Dr · Houston, TX 77336

$259,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,840 sqft · SingleFamily · 82 Days on market

Built 2026 $141/sqft · 10% below area Est $289k · 10% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.0/15.0
• Cash flow +8.2/30.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 66644887 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ The Diamond is a flawless floor plan balancing communal and private living areas. The great room is central where dazzling sunlight illuminates your weekly Super Smash Bros tournament. Popcorn popped on the gleaming kitchen island refuels players between games. You will treasure time spent in the alluring primary suite while curl up with books in their large bedrooms. Serve dinner al fresco on the large, covered patio when it’s time to bring everyone together again.

Key facts

• Primary suite
• Covered patio
• Great room

Tags

• GREAT ROOM
• KITCHEN ISLAND
• PRIMARY SUITE
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-245 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $225k (13.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $202k (22.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $202k (22.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.2% vs local median 3.1% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Huffman ISD (rural): math 32% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #500 of 826 in TX (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 585 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($244k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $201,774 (22.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.03%
• DSCR: 0.82
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,894
• List price: $259,990
• Delta: -10.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1216 Romany Flds	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,857 (+1%)	2mo	$251,540	$135	89
1210 Romany Fields Dr	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,941 (+6%)	2mo	$244,390	$126	83
1211 Romany Fields Dr	0.14mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (-8%)	0mo	$228,940	$136	74
1224 Romany Fields Dr	0.18mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (-8%)	1mo	$259,240	$154	72
1110 Long Leaf Pine St	0.30mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,943 (+6%)	1mo	$316,000	$163	70
31027 De La Guerra St	0.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,688 (-8%)	1mo	$234,240	$139	68
1042 Gazing Pine St	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,943 (+6%)	2mo	$320,000	$165	66
1128 Peter Pine St	0.21mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,027 (+10%)	1mo	$332,400	$164	66
1229 Corsica Cliffs Dr	0.20mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,045 (+11%)	1mo	$284,230	$139	62
1202 Peter Pine St	0.24mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,085 (+13%)	1mo	$355,000	$170	58
31115 De La Guerra St	0.28mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,045 (+11%)	2mo	$285,980	$140	58
1114 Novelle Bend Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,674 (-9%)	2mo	$388,000	$232	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-57,659
• Equity at exit: $38,765

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.04×
• Total profit: $-70,050
• Equity at exit: $22,479

Cash invested: $72,797 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77336

• Home prices YoY: -1.8%
• Active inventory: 585
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,018 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$325 /mo · $3,900/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$424
• Net cashflow: $-245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,328

Max offer price $224,579

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-65	-5% $-155	+0% $-245	+5% $-335	+10% $-424
Rent	-10% $-404	-5% $-324	+0% $-245	+5% $-165	+10% $-85
Rate	-1.0pp $-114	-0.5pp $-179	base $-245	+0.5pp $-312	+1.0pp $-381

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,998
• Closing costs: $7,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
934 Pertuso Ln Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1360	$1,800	$1.32	24d	1	0.79mi
31416 Pratola Serra Cir Huffman, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,675	$1.15	2d	1	0.86mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $259,990 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $259,990 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $259,990 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $259,990 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $259,990 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $259,990 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $259,990 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $259,990 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $259,990 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $259,990 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $259,990 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $259,990 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $259,990 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-03-28
    listed $259,990 Active 549-char remark

    Show marketing remark (549 chars)

    MLS# 66644887 - Built by Trophy Signature Homes - May 2026 completion! ~ The Diamond is a flawless floor plan balancing communal and private living areas. The great room is central where dazzling sunlight illuminates your weekly Super Smash Bros tournament. Popcorn popped on the gleaming kitchen island refuels players between games. You will treasure time spent in the alluring primary suite while curl up with books in their large bedrooms. Serve dinner al fresco on the large, covered patio when it’s time to bring everyone together again.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,213
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,563
• − Property taxes: −$3,900
• − Insurance: −$1,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,937
• − Management: −$1,937
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$7,563
• Taxable loss: −$7,492
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,798
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,139/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Huffman ISD
• NCES district ID: 4823820
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $65,848
• Composite: 30.61/100
• National rank: #6195
• State rank: #500 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 14,342
• Household income: $96,404
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 377.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 9% Black 5% Native American 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 20%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 18% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -8.59%
• Current HPI: 472.03
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-28 Listed $259,990 HARMLS