8551 NW 125th St · Manatee Road, FL 32626

$225,000

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 784 sqft · Manufactured public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1984 4.05 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Under Construction. Be the first to own this brand-new manufactured home, currently under construction and designed with modern living in mind! Set on over 4 acres in a quiet, well-established neighborhood, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and tranquility. Featuring a spacious open-concept layout, energy-efficient systems, and stylish finishes throughout. Enjoy a contemporary kitchen with new appliances, a generous primary suite with walk-in closet, and quality craftsmanship from top to bottom. A rare opportunity to own a new home in such a peaceful setting—don't miss your chance to make it yours!

Key facts

• Contemporary kitchen
• New appliances
• Over 4 acres

Tags

• OVER 4 ACRES
• WELL-ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• ENERGY-EFFICIENT SYSTEMS
• CONTEMPORARY KITCHEN
• NEW APPLIANCES

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-887/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $212k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (25.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (25.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 4.8% in Manatee Road — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#815 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D, schools F, amenities F.
• Levy (rural): math 45% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #54 of 73 in FL (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 199 active listings in the ZIP; 199 units permitted in Levy County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Levy County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,611 (25.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.41%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-41,234
• Equity at exit: $33,548

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-42,238
• Equity at exit: $19,454

Cash invested: $63,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32626

• Home prices YoY: -6.9%
• Active inventory: 199
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,686 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,180
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,587/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,780

Max offer price $211,940

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $53	-5% $-10	+0% $-74	+5% $-138	+10% $-201
Rent	-10% $-207	-5% $-141	+0% $-74	+5% $-7	+10% $59
Rate	-1.0pp $39	-0.5pp $-17	base $-74	+0.5pp $-132	+1.0pp $-192

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,250
• Closing costs: $6,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-03-20
   status Pending 631-char remark

   Show marketing remark (631 chars)

   Under Construction. Be the first to own this brand-new manufactured home, currently under construction and designed with modern living in mind! Set on over 4 acres in a quiet, well-established neighborhood, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and tranquility. Featuring a spacious open-concept layout, energy-efficient systems, and stylish finishes throughout. Enjoy a contemporary kitchen with new appliances, a generous primary suite with walk-in closet, and quality craftsmanship from top to bottom. A rare opportunity to own a new home in such a peaceful setting—don't miss your chance to make it yours!

2. 2025-11-03
   soldstatus $221,000
3. 2025-06-26
   status Pending
4. 2025-06-21
   listed $225,000 Active 631-char remark

   Show marketing remark (631 chars)

   Under Construction. Be the first to own this brand-new manufactured home, currently under construction and designed with modern living in mind! Set on over 4 acres in a quiet, well-established neighborhood, this home offers the perfect blend of comfort, space, and tranquility. Featuring a spacious open-concept layout, energy-efficient systems, and stylish finishes throughout. Enjoy a contemporary kitchen with new appliances, a generous primary suite with walk-in closet, and quality craftsmanship from top to bottom. A rare opportunity to own a new home in such a peaceful setting—don't miss your chance to make it yours!

5. 2025-06-20
   listed $225,000 Active
6. 2025-03-24
   historical
7. 2025-01-29
   status Active
8. 2025-01-07
   status Pending
9. 2024-12-04
   price $229,000
10. 2024-10-10
    listed $269,000 Active
11. 2004-10-11
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,587 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,868 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$280/yr (+$23/mo · 17.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,233
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,603
• − Property taxes: −$1,587
• − Insurance: −$1,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,619
• − Management: −$1,619
• − Depreciation: −$6,545
• Taxable loss: −$4,865
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,168
• After-tax cash flow: $281/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Levy
• NCES district ID: 1201140
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,254
• Composite: 36.42/100
• National rank: #4673
• State rank: #54 of 73 in FL

Livability — Manatee Road

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #815
• US rank: #19826

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing B- Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manatee Road, FL
• Population (ZIP): 8,994

Population outlook (Levy County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,536 people
• By 2030: 34,498 · -5.6%
• By 2040: 30,294 · -17.1%
• By 2050: 26,368 · -27.8%
• By 2075: 19,003 · -48.0%
• By 2100: 13,169 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Black 11% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 6% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Levy

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.3) · D 24.6% · R 74.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.3pp toward R · 2008: -26.9pp · 2024: -50.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.3 2020: R+45.6 2016: R+44.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+26.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.03%
• Current HPI: 282.05
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+636.7% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Pending — DGLMLS
• 2025-11-03 Sold (Public Records) $221,000 Public Records
• 2025-06-26 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-21 Listed $225,000 DGLMLS
• 2025-06-20 Listed $225,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-24 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-29 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-01-07 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-12-04 Price Changed $229,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-10 Listed $269,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-10-11 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,587 · +18.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.