15344 N 102nd St · Scottsdale, AZ 85255

$699,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,504 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 105 Days on market

Built 1998 5,350 sqft lot $465/sqft · at area comps Est $718k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Appreciation +7.8/10.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Location Location Location. .. .. Mcdowell Mountain Ranch Neighborhood Nicely Updated ALL New Wood Laminate Flooring in all the Rooms, Entire House throughout! One Level Home Master Bedroom on opposite Side of the House Great Privacy! Scenic Private Fenced in Back yard. Very Clean Inside, Cabinets Re-finished all Fleshly painted Inside Large Great Room/Kitchen combo Brand New Walk-in Master Shower and Walk-in Closet. Call owner for more Information. .. . Owner is Flexible on Time :)

Key facts

• Re-finished cabinets
• Walk-in closet
• 5,350 sq ft lot

Tags

• NEW WOOD LAMINATE FLOORING
• PRIVATE FENCED IN BACK YARD
• RE-FINISHED CABINETS
• WALK-IN MASTER SHOWER
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $699k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-14k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $497k (28.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $384k (45.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $384k (45.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.5% in Scottsdale — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#4 in AZ, #1,756 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: health & safety C-, cost of living F.
• Scottsdale Unified District (4240) (urban): math 53% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #30 of 249 in AZ (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 720 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 42% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($141k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $44k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (5.6% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$71k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 105 days — a 9% lower offer ($636k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $101k; list at $699k implies a 594% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $384,112 (45.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 105 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 45% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.33%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.01%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 15.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $718,234
• List price: $699,000
• Delta: -2.68%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10290 E Hillery Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,504 (0%)	2mo	$790,000	$525	88
15687 N 104th St	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+3%)	3mo	$765,000	$494	73
10208 E Firewheel Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,478 (-2%)	2mo	$660,000	$447	71
10420 E Salt Bush Dr	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,548 (+3%)	0mo	$650,000	$420	70
10335 E Saltillo Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,504 (0%)	2mo	$780,000	$519	69
10373 E Penstamin Dr	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,536 (+2%)	1mo	$725,000	$472	62
10482 E Karen Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,702 (+13%)	0mo	$770,000	$452	57
10456 E Raintree Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,702 (+13%)	1mo	$827,500	$486	56
10459 E Hillery Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,702 (+13%)	3mo	$807,000	$474	55
10357 E Texas Sage Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,702 (+13%)	2mo	$856,000	$503	54
10290 E Mallow Cir	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,702 (+13%)	2mo	$812,000	$477	54
15151 N 100th Way	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,691 (+12%)	1mo	$585,000	$346	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.64% appreciation · 4.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.61×
• Total profit: $119,198
• Equity at exit: $423,493

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.16×
• Total profit: $423,260
• Equity at exit: $754,600

Cash invested: $195,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85255

• Home prices YoY: 1.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 720
• Price-to-rent: 15.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,841 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,666
• Tax from tax record: −$222 /mo · $2,661/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$807
• Net cashflow: $-1,144

Break-even live

Break-even rent $5,289

Max offer price $496,884

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,750
• Closing costs: $20,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10295 E Hillery Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1837	$7,500	$4.08	43d	1	0.19mi
10318 E Tierra Buena Ln Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	2.0	1963	$4,200	$2.14	13d	1	0.26mi
10342 E Tierra Buena Ln Unit 1545663P Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1646	$4,071	$2.47	14d	1	0.29mi
10458 E Karen Dr Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2200	$12,000	$5.45	43d	1	0.34mi
14862 N 103rd St Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	3.0	2132	$3,200	$1.50	11d	1	0.38mi
10290 E Mallow Cir Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1702	$3,400	$2.00	43d	1	0.43mi
16356 N Thompson Peak Pkwy Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$2,300	$2.21	2d	71	0.47mi
10438 E Star of the Desert Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1451	$2,995	$2.06	43d	1	0.53mi
10317 E Penstamin Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,195	$1.77	43d	1	0.55mi
10412 E Acoma Dr Scottsdale, AZ	4.0	2.0	2114	$10,000	$4.73	43d	1	0.58mi
14736 N 100th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1852	$8,500	$4.59	20d	1	0.59mi
10518 E Star of the Desert Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1451	$3,200	$2.21	20d	1	0.61mi
15225 N 100th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1548	$4,425	$2.86	43d	2	0.64mi
15095 N Thompson Peak Pkwy Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$6,750	$6.18	2d	7	0.70mi
15095 N Thompson Peak Pkwy Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	978	$6,750	$6.90	43d	6	0.70mi
15095 N Thompson Peak Pkwy Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$6,750	$6.18	23d	8	0.70mi
16420 N Thompson Peak Pkwy Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1688	$6,750	$4.00	4d	7	0.73mi
16420 N Thompson Peak Pkwy Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0–2.5	1537	$6,750	$4.39	7d	8	0.73mi
14746 N 97th St Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1677	$3,600	$2.15	5d	1	0.74mi
14203 N 101st St Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	1863	$2,695	$1.45	24d	1	0.74mi
14203 N 101st St Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	1863	$2,695	$1.45	20d	1	0.74mi
9756 E Pine Valley Rd Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1491	$3,250	$2.18	5d	1	0.74mi
14545 N Frank Lloyd Wright Blvd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1080	$2,260	$2.09	5d	7	0.77mi
15252 N 100th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1454	$2,700	$1.86	19d	2	0.78mi
15252 N 100th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1454	$3,495	$2.40	11d	2	0.78mi
10059 E Sheena Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1178	$2,950	$2.50	43d	1	0.79mi
15380 N 100th St Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	1.0–2.0	1172	$2,750	$2.35	3d	2	0.79mi
15050 N Thompson Peak Pkwy Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.0	1500	$3,500	$2.33	43d	3	0.79mi
14204 N 100th Pl Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	1862	$2,995	$1.61	43d	1	0.80mi
16600 N Thompson Peak Pkwy #1047 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.5	1890	$3,500	$1.85	43d	1	0.80mi
15380 N 100th St #1121 Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1254	$3,750	$2.99	43d	1	0.82mi
15151 N Frank Lloyd Wright Blvd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1377	$3,225	$2.34	43d	3	0.91mi
15255 N Frank Lloyd Wright Blvd Scottsdale, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	905	$2,235	$2.47	1d	22	0.93mi
9711 E Palm Ridge Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2096	$3,249	$1.55	7d	1	1.00mi
9696 E Sheena Dr Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.5	2096	$3,500	$1.67	21d	1	1.03mi
15041 N 93rd Way Scottsdale, AZ	3.0	2.0	1374	$4,200	$3.06	43d	1	1.03mi
15555 N Frank Lloyd Wright Blvd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1111	$1,904	$1.71	3d	1	1.06mi
9455 E Raintree Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1310	$4,950	$3.78	43d	3	1.07mi
9455 E Raintree Dr Scottsdale, AZ	2.0–3.0	1.5–2.0	1310	$4,950	$3.78	5d	4	1.07mi
10046 E Bell Rd Scottsdale, AZ	2.0	2.0	1837	$3,175	$1.73	43d	1	1.09mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-03
   days on market $699,000 Active 105 DOM
2. 2026-06-02
   days on market $699,000 Active 104 DOM
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $699,000 Active 103 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $699,000 Active 102 DOM
5. 2026-02-18
   listed $699,000 Active 489-char remark

   Show marketing remark (489 chars)

   Location Location Location. .. .. Mcdowell Mountain Ranch Neighborhood Nicely Updated ALL New Wood Laminate Flooring in all the Rooms, Entire House throughout! One Level Home Master Bedroom on opposite Side of the House Great Privacy! Scenic Private Fenced in Back yard. Very Clean Inside, Cabinets Re-finished all Fleshly painted Inside Large Great Room/Kitchen combo Brand New Walk-in Master Shower and Walk-in Closet. Call owner for more Information. .. . Owner is Flexible on Time :)

6. 2025-08-09
   historical $2,800
7. 2025-07-02
   listed $2,800
8. 2025-06-01
   historical $2,600
9. 2025-05-29
   price $2,600
10. 2025-05-08
    listed $2,800
11. 2025-05-01
    historical $2,995
12. 2025-02-27
    listed $2,995
13. 1999-12-15
    soldstatus $100,759

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,661 · $222/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,613 · $384/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,953/yr (+$163/mo · 73.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,093
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,155
• − Property taxes: −$2,661
• − Insurance: −$3,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,687
• − Management: −$3,687
• − Depreciation: −$20,335
• Taxable loss: −$26,927
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,462
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,267/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Scottsdale Unified District (4240)
• NCES district ID: 0407570
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $70,139
• Composite: 48.02/100
• National rank: #2196
• State rank: #30 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Scottsdale

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #4
• US rank: #1756

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Scottsdale, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 290,846
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 45,346
• Household income: $140,616
• Rent vs Own: 26.9% rent · 73.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1034.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 4% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.64%
• Current HPI: 330.9931
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.42%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+593.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-18 Listed $699,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2025-08-09 Rental Removed $2,800 ARMLS
• 2025-07-02 Listed for Rent $2,800 ARMLS
• 2025-06-01 Rental Removed $2,600 ARMLS
• 2025-05-29 Price Changed $2,600 ARMLS
• 2025-05-08 Listed for Rent $2,800 ARMLS
• 2025-05-01 Rental Removed $2,995 ARMLS
• 2025-02-27 Listed for Rent $2,995 ARMLS
• 1999-12-15 Sold (Public Records) $100,759 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,661 · +4.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.