213 Mamanasco Rd · Mamanasco Lake, CT 06877

$405,000

1 bd · 1.5 ba · 746 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 281 Days on market

Built 1945 $543/sqft · 15% below area Est $481k · 16% under ↓ 13% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.6/15.0
• Cash flow +9.1/30.0
• Schools +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful home perfect for a single person or couple. great location. across the street from Lake Mamanasco. 10 minutes from Main street Ridgefield, 17 minutes from the Danbury Fair Mall. Walk to Ridgefield High School and Middle School. Also beach and boat launch are a short walk. HOA takes care of yard work and snow so it a low maintenance living. Its a must see.

Key facts

• Short walk to beach
• Built 1945
• Listed 281 days

Tags

• WALK TO RIDGEFIELD HIGH SCHOOL
• WALK TO MIDDLE SCHOOL
• SHORT WALK TO BEACH
• SHORT WALK TO BOAT LAUNCH
• HOA TAKES CARE OF YARD WORK
• HOA TAKES CARE OF SNOW

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $405k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-309 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $350k (13.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $261k (35.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $261k (35.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Ridgefield School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 79% proficiency, ranked #6 of 153 in CT (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 2% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 140 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 1,151 units permitted in Western Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (714 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 17% of the median local income ($179k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 281 days — a 12% lower offer ($356k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask is 4% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $260,948 (35.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 281 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.27%
• DSCR: 0.85
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $480,820
• List price: $405,000
• Delta: -15.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
225 Mamanasco Rd #225	0.02mi	1/1.0	692 (-7%)	14mo	$430,000	$621	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-85,518
• Equity at exit: $60,387

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-100,701
• Equity at exit: $35,017

Cash invested: $113,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06877

• Active inventory: 140
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,609 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,124
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $932/yr
• Insurance: −$169
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$548
• Net cashflow: $-309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,000

Max offer price $350,452

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-80	-5% $-194	+0% $-309	+5% $-423	+10% $-538
Rent	-10% $-515	-5% $-412	+0% $-309	+5% $-206	+10% $-103
Rate	-1.0pp $-105	-0.5pp $-206	base $-309	+0.5pp $-414	+1.0pp $-520

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $101,250
• Closing costs: $12,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $405,000 Active 281 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $405,000 Active 280 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   days on market $405,000 Active 278 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $405,000 Active 277 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $405,000 Active 276 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $405,000 Active 275 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $405,000 Active 272 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $405,000 Active 271 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $405,000 Active 270 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $405,000 Active 269 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $405,000 Active 268 DOM
12. 2026-04-12
    historical
13. 2026-01-23
    listed $389,000 Active
14. 2026-01-23
    historical
15. 2025-10-17
    listed $399,000 Active
16. 2025-09-04
    listed $405,000 Active
17. 2023-08-02
    historical
18. 2023-03-06
    price $389,000
19. 2023-02-11
    listed $419,999 Active
20. 2023-01-25
    historical
21. 2022-11-11
    price $399,000
22. 2022-10-02
    price $419,500
23. 2022-09-24
    listed $449,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $932 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,800 · $400/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,868/yr (+$322/mo · 415.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,314
• − Mortgage interest: −$22,686
• − Property taxes: −$932
• − Insurance: −$2,025
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,505
• − Management: −$2,505
• − Depreciation: −$11,782
• Taxable loss: −$11,121
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,669
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,036/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ridgefield School District
• NCES district ID: 0903810
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 79% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $140,316
• Composite: 71.28/100
• National rank: #231
• State rank: #6 of 153 in CT

Livability — Mamanasco Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mamanasco Lake, CT
• County: Fairfield County · 765,532 people
• Metro: Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
• Population (ZIP): 25,110
• Household income: $179,219
• Rent vs Own: 16.5% rent · 83.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 365.0

Population outlook (Western Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 685,031

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 1% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Other Indo-European 7% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Western Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 58.8% · R 39.7% · Other 1.6%
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -449.63%
• Current HPI: 234.8817
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

-13.4% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2026-01-23 Listed $389,000 Smart MLS
• 2026-01-23 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $399,000 Smart MLS
• 2025-09-04 Listed $405,000 Fizber.com
• 2023-08-02 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2023-03-06 Price Changed $389,000 Smart MLS
• 2023-02-11 Listed $419,999 Smart MLS
• 2023-01-25 Listing Removed — Smart MLS
• 2022-11-11 Price Changed $399,000 Smart MLS
• 2022-10-02 Price Changed $419,500 Smart MLS
• 2022-09-24 Listed $449,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2022): $932 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.