1045 Sequoia · Canyon Lake, TX 78133

$150,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Manufactured public records · 326 Days on market

Built 1980 0.26 ac lot $128/sqft · 39% below area Est $246k · 39% under $7/mo HOA ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +8.2/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.2/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

AT LAST an affordable 3-2 2(carport) on large corner lot with a hill country view ,in good condition ,in a good neighborhood. The home has had new Central A/C/Heat and Hot water heater recently installed. Upgrades include fresh paint, and fixtures, electrical, roof, carport, and septic have had maintenance upgrades. The area has a great school district ,a lakefront neighborhood park that adjoins the "Old Hancock Trail", swimming pool and playground. Owner may consider financing with approved credit.

Key facts

• Fresh paint
• New hot water heater
• New central a/c

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• HILL COUNTRY VIEW
• NEW CENTRAL A/C
• NEW HOT WATER HEATER
• FRESH PAINT
• LAKEFRONT NEIGHBORHOOD PARK

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $625 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.3% vs local median 2.3% in Canyon Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#534 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Comal ISD (rural): math 57% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #58 of 826 in TX (top 7%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.2%/yr); 1014 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,420 units permitted in Comal County in 2024 (1,164 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Comal County population projected at +70% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 326 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 77% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $132,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 326 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
6. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
7. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.32% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.29%
• Cash-on-cash: 17.86%
• DSCR: 1.79
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $245,876
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: -38.99%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1155 Pecan Cir	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,280 (+9%)	2mo	$169,000	$132	82
1457 Willow Dr	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,344 (+14%)	20mo	$199,900	$149	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 6.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $9,681
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.88×
• Total profit: $37,150
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78133

• Home prices YoY: -33.8%
• Rents YoY: -1.2%
• Active inventory: 1014
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,004/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$7
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $625

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,190

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 63%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1200 Willow Dr Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	2.5	1360	$1,875	$1.38	43d	1	0.46mi
537 Tamarack Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	1.0	1357	$1,820	$1.34	4d	1	0.48mi
1285 Live Oak Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1314	$1,795	$1.37	43d	1	0.64mi
1660 McIver Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.5	1378	$3,450	$2.50	43d	1	1.16mi
1616 Lonesome Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,650	$1.22	1d	1	1.27mi
578 Misty Glen Dr Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1277	$1,850	$1.45	12d	1	1.30mi
1123 Hedgestone Canyon Lake, TX	3.0	2.0	1344	$1,450	$1.08	23d	1	1.40mi
1375 Canyon Trce Unit B Canyon Lake, TX	2.0	1.5	896	$1,450	$1.62	1d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $7 · $84/yr
• Likely covers: waterelectricpool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 326 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 325 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 324 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 323 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 321 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 317 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $150,000 Active 316 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $150,000 Active 315 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $150,000 Active 312 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 311 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 310 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 309 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 308 DOM
14. 2026-01-26
    status Back on Market 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    AT LAST an affordable 3-2 2(carport) on large corner lot with a hill country view ,in good condition ,in a good neighborhood. The home has had new Central A/C/Heat and Hot water heater recently installed. Upgrades include fresh paint, and fixtures, electrical, roof, carport, and septic have had maintenance upgrades. The area has a great school district ,a lakefront neighborhood park that adjoins the "Old Hancock Trail", swimming pool and playground. Owner may consider financing with approved credit.

15. 2026-01-24
    historical 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    AT LAST an affordable 3-2 2(carport) on large corner lot with a hill country view ,in good condition ,in a good neighborhood. The home has had new Central A/C/Heat and Hot water heater recently installed. Upgrades include fresh paint, and fixtures, electrical, roof, carport, and septic have had maintenance upgrades. The area has a great school district ,a lakefront neighborhood park that adjoins the "Old Hancock Trail", swimming pool and playground. Owner may consider financing with approved credit.

16. 2025-08-27
    price $150,000 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    AT LAST an affordable 3-2 2(carport) on large corner lot with a hill country view ,in good condition ,in a good neighborhood. The home has had new Central A/C/Heat and Hot water heater recently installed. Upgrades include fresh paint, and fixtures, electrical, roof, carport, and septic have had maintenance upgrades. The area has a great school district ,a lakefront neighborhood park that adjoins the "Old Hancock Trail", swimming pool and playground. Owner may consider financing with approved credit.

17. 2025-07-25
    listed $155,000 New 515-char remark

    Show marketing remark (515 chars)

    AT LAST an affordable 3-2 2(carport) on large corner lot with a hill country view ,in good condition ,in a good neighborhood. The home has had new Central A/C/Heat and Hot water heater recently installed. Upgrades include fresh paint, and fixtures, electrical, roof, carport, and septic have had maintenance upgrades. The area has a great school district ,a lakefront neighborhood park that adjoins the "Old Hancock Trail", swimming pool and playground. Owner may consider financing with approved credit.

18. 2022-09-14
    soldstatus
19. 2005-03-30
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,004 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,741/yr (+$145/mo · 173.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 77% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,773
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$1,004
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − HOA: −$84
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable income: $5,365
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,288
• After-tax cash flow: $6,215/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Comal ISD
• NCES district ID: 4814730
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $74,792
• Composite: 51.79/100
• National rank: #1671
• State rank: #58 of 826 in TX

Livability — Canyon Lake

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #534
• US rank: #10441

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canyon Lake, TX
• County: Comal County · 206,262 people
• City population: 42,159
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,959
• Household income: $83,853
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 402.0

Population outlook (Comal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 175,637 people
• By 2030: 199,911 · +13.8%
• By 2040: 249,436 · +42.0%
• By 2050: 299,430 · +70.5%
• By 2075: 423,857 · +141.3%
• By 2100: 512,048 · +191.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 10% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Comal

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.9pp toward D · 2008: -47.4pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+42.7 2016: R+50.1 2012: R+54.1 2008: R+47.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -111.36%
• Current HPI: 218.4633
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.20%
• Metro: San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-3.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-26 Relisted — LERA
• 2026-01-24 Listing Removed — LERA
• 2025-08-27 Price Changed $150,000 LERA
• 2025-07-25 Listed $155,000 LERA
• 2022-09-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-03-30 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2026): $1,004 · -13.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.