9138 Chestnut St · Lumberton, TX 77657

$185,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,308 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1945 $141/sqft · at area comps Est $188k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.4/30.0
• ARV discount +8.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Don't miss out on this charming 3 bedroom 1 bath home sitting on a large fenced yard with landscaping and trees meticulously placed throughout. Located centrally to shopping, restaurants, with quick access to the highway!

Key facts

• Large fenced yard
• Centrally located
• Listed 91 days

Tags

• LARGE FENCED YARD
• LANDSCAPING AND TREES
• CENTRALLY LOCATED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $185k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $309 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $185k).
• Recommended offer: $168k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.2% in Lumberton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#160 in TX, #4,326 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Lumberton ISD (suburban): math 48% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #173 of 826 in TX (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lumberton Pri (math 54% / reading 58%, grade C+, #574 of 4,322 statewide, top 14%, 982 students, 43% FRL); Lumberton Middle (math 47% / reading 51%, grade C-, #378 of 1,662 statewide, top 23%, 969 students, 35% FRL); Lumberton H S (math 55% / reading 61%, grade C, #320 of 1,632 statewide, top 20%, 1,229 students, 30% FRL).
• Market conditions: 318 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($168k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1945 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1945 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.15%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $188,199
• List price: $185,000
• Delta: -1.70%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8483 Wingfield Dr	0.12mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+10%)	3mo	$225,000	$156	66
8801 Mitchell Rd	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,352 (+3%)	17mo	$200,000	$148	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.80×
• Total profit: $-10,341
• Equity at exit: $27,584

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $16,196
• Equity at exit: $15,995

Cash invested: $51,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77657

• Active inventory: 318
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,888 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$970
• Tax from tax record: −$136 /mo · $1,630/yr
• Insurance: −$77
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$397
• Net cashflow: $309

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,498

Max offer price $185,000

Occupancy floor 79%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $414	-5% $361	+0% $309	+5% $256	+10% $204
Rent	-10% $160	-5% $234	+0% $309	+5% $383	+10% $458
Rate	-1.0pp $402	-0.5pp $356	base $309	+0.5pp $261	+1.0pp $212

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $46,250
• Closing costs: $5,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8445 Harvard St Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.5	1295	$1,790	$1.38	25d	1	0.10mi
9006 Duke St Lumberton, TX	3.0	2.0	1064	$1,400	$1.32	45d	1	0.18mi
9440 Hickory St Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1250	$1,500	$1.20	45d	1	0.35mi
9440 Hickory St Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	25d	1	0.35mi
110 Azaelia Dr Lumberton, TX	2.0	2.0	1380	$1,650	$1.20	15d	1	0.95mi
9984 Golden Ln Lumberton, TX	2.0	1.5	1001	$1,575	$1.57	15d	1	0.95mi

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $185,000 Active 91 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $185,000 Active 90 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $185,000 Active 89 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $185,000 Active 88 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $185,000 Active 86 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $185,000 Active 83 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $185,000 Active 82 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $185,000 Active 81 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $185,000 Active 80 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $185,000 Active 77 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $185,000 Active 76 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $185,000 Active 75 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $185,000 Active 74 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $185,000 Active 73 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $185,000 Active 72 DOM
16. 2026-03-21
    status Active 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Don't miss out on this charming 3 bedroom 1 bath home sitting on a large fenced yard with landscaping and trees meticulously placed throughout. Located centrally to shopping, restaurants, with quick access to the highway!

17. 2026-03-16
    status Pending 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Don't miss out on this charming 3 bedroom 1 bath home sitting on a large fenced yard with landscaping and trees meticulously placed throughout. Located centrally to shopping, restaurants, with quick access to the highway!

18. 2026-03-14
    listed $185,000 Active 221-char remark

    Show marketing remark (221 chars)

    Don't miss out on this charming 3 bedroom 1 bath home sitting on a large fenced yard with landscaping and trees meticulously placed throughout. Located centrally to shopping, restaurants, with quick access to the highway!

19. 2006-07-25
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,630 · $136/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,386 · $282/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,755/yr (+$146/mo · 107.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,662
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,363
• − Property taxes: −$1,630
• − Insurance: −$925
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,813
• − Management: −$1,813
• − Depreciation: −$5,382
• Taxable income: $736
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$177
• After-tax cash flow: $3,529/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lumberton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813530
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $62,996
• Composite: 43.2/100
• National rank: #3063
• State rank: #173 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lumberton

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #160
• US rank: #4326

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hardin County · 39,783 people
• City population: 22,258
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,258
• Household income: $95,718
• Rent vs Own: 16.3% rent · 83.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 147.0

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 10% Serbian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -160.56%
• Current HPI: 156.2265
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Beaumont-Port Arthur, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-21 Relisted — BBOR
• 2026-03-16 Pending — BBOR
• 2026-03-14 Listed $185,000 BBOR
• 2006-07-25 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,630 · -0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.