526 E 154th Pl · Phoenix, IL 60426

$125,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,247 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 16 Days on market

Built 1958 9,375 sqft lot Est $176k · 29% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0

Listing remarks

Discover the potential of this charming 3-bed/2.1-bath home situated on a spacious double lot. The open-concept main floor offers a welcoming layout for everyday living and entertaining, along with a convenient main-level bedroom and full bathroom. Upstairs, the spacious primary suite features a private balcony overlooking the beautiful tree-lined street, while an additional bedroom completes the 2nd level. The full basement provides ample space for storage, recreation, a home office, or future expansion possibilities. With just a few finishing touches, this home is ready to shine. Do not miss this wonderful opportunity to add your personal style and make this property your own.

Key facts

• Private balcony
• Double lot
• Full basement

Tags

• DOUBLE LOT
• OPEN-CONCEPT MAIN FLOOR
• PRIVATE BALCONY
• FULL BASEMENT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession at closing; Holds earnest money; Property provides homeowner tax exemption
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (owned); Asphalt driveway; Approximately 2.5 garage/parking spaces total
• Utilities: Water from Lake Michigan and public supply; Public sewer and mechanical septic; 200+ amp electric service with circuit breakers
• Home design: Detached single-family home; Two-story; Fee simple ownership; Built before 1978 (age approx. 61–70 years)
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Asphalt roof; Concrete perimeter foundation
• Exterior features: Patio; Porch; Lot dimensions approximately 75 x 125; Lot less than 0.25 acre; School bus service, commuter train access, interstate access

Interior

• Kitchen: Eating area / table space; Ceramic tile flooring in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (second level) — 15 x 15; Bedroom (second level) — 13 x 13; Bedroom (main level) — 13 x 10
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms and master; Wood laminate in living and dining areas; Ceramic tile in kitchen
• Bathrooms: Two full baths; One half bath; Soaking tub; Basement has a bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Ceiling fan(s); Separate dining room; Unfinished full basement; Attic with dormer, full, interior stair
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Gas dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $628 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $123k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#230 in IL, #4,248 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Thornton Twp Hsd 205 (suburban): math 7% / reading 8% proficiency, ranked #594 of 620 in IL (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 134 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,272 units permitted in Cook County in 2024 (4,658 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($864 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $44k; list at $125k implies a 184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price; built in 1958 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,125 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1958 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.63% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.54%
• DSCR: 1.96
• GRM: 5.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,827
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15243 3rd Ave	0.24mi	3/1.0	1,182 (-5%)	12mo	$40,000	$34	68
536 E 155th St	0.08mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,423 (+14%)	7mo	$245,000	$172	60
15711 Lowe Ave	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,404 (+13%)	2mo	$232,000	$165	59
15624 Lowe Ave	0.30mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,322 (+6%)	13mo	$135,000	$102	58
910 E 152nd Pl	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,349 (+8%)	0mo	$190,000	$141	52
16012 Carol Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,232 (-1%)	14mo	$215,000	$175	50
15131 6th Ave	0.50mi	3/1.0	1,064 (-15%)	11mo	$75,000	$70	42
15015 Riverside Dr	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,378 (+10%)	13mo	$176,900	$128	40
15330 7th Ave	0.39mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,098 (-12%)	22mo	$115,000	$105	38
14931 Riverside Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,100 (-12%)	9mo	$164,000	$149	38
16005 Lowe Ave	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,114 (-11%)	15mo	$167,000	$150	33
15930 Carol Ave	0.67mi	3/1.0	1,400 (+12%)	22mo	$195,000	$139	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.4%
• Equity multiple: 4.09×
• Total profit: $108,203
• Equity at exit: $112,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.21×
• Total profit: $287,374
• Equity at exit: $242,848

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60426

• Home prices YoY: 6.9%
• Active inventory: 134
• Price-to-rent: 5.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,039 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$275 /mo · $3,302/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $628

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,244

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 64%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16048 Halsted St Unit 2 Harvey, IL	3.0	1.0	1091	$1,650	$1.51	24d	1	0.80mi
14844 Wabash Ave Dolton, IL	3.0	1.5	1277	$2,320	$1.82	24d	1	1.30mi
16125 Marshfield Ave Markham, IL	3.0	1.0	1043	$2,400	$2.30	1d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 12 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 16 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 15 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 11 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 10 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 7 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $125,000 Active 6 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $125,000 Active 5 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $125,000 Active 2 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    remarks 687-char remark
12. 2026-06-03
    listed $125,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,302 · $275/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,302 · $275/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,473
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$3,302
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $5,992
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,438
• After-tax cash flow: $6,102/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Thornton Twp Hsd 205
• NCES district ID: 1738970
• Math proficiency: 7% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 8% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $43,392
• Composite: 6.92/100
• National rank: #9976
• State rank: #594 of 620 in IL

Livability — Phoenix

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #230
• US rank: #4248

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment F Housing A- Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Phoenix, IL
• Population (ZIP): 23,066

Population outlook (Cook County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,347,519 people
• By 2030: 5,357,703 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 5,324,924 · -0.4%
• By 2050: 5,230,762 · -2.2%
• By 2075: 4,785,735 · -10.5%
• By 2100: 4,188,836 · -21.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Hispanic / Latino 33% Two or more races 12% White 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 30% Other Indo-European 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Cook

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.0) · D 70.4% · R 28.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.4pp toward R · 2008: 53.4pp · 2024: 42.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.0 2020: D+50.3 2016: D+53.0 2012: D+49.4 2008: D+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 20.36%
• Current HPI: 313.7895
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+257.1% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Listed $125,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-21 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-14 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-06 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-02 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-06-02 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-01-08 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-04-18 Sold (Public Records) $44,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-10 Sold (MLS) $44,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-02-22 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2006-11-02 Listed $48,880 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2000-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 1986-11-25 Sold (Public Records) $35,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.0%/yr

Latest (2023): $3,302 · +210.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.