11531 Ernest Rd Unit 1-3 · Socorro, TX 79927

$274,900

None bd · None ba · 2,244 sqft · MultiFamily · 252 Days on market

Built 1987 Good condition 7,405 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.2/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 3 units. confirmed

Listing remarks MLS

THIS WELL MAINTAINED TRIPLEX IS THE PERFECT INVESTMENT PROPERTY TO ADD TO YOUR PORTFOLIO.. REFRIGERATED AIR, NO CARPET. WALKING DISTANCE FROM SCHOOL AND MAIN SOCORRO RD.

Key facts

• Refrigerated air
• 7,405 sq ft lot
• Built 1987

Tags

• REFRIGERATED AIR
• WALKING DISTANCE FROM SCHOOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3 × 2-bed/1-bath units multifamily listed at $275k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $871 ($10k/yr) — positive. Per door: $290/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $275k).
• Recommended offer: $242k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#830 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Socorro ISD (urban): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #624 of 826 in TX (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 66% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.3%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,196 units permitted in El Paso County in 2024 (143 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,507/mo this rent would consume 78% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) (locally 732% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• El Paso County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-0.9% appreciation + 5.3% rent growth), your $77k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 252 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 252 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
3. What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.28% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.58%
• DSCR: 1.60
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.93% appreciation · 5.29% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.57×
• Total profit: $43,902
• Equity at exit: $67,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.19×
• Total profit: $168,645
• Equity at exit: $71,350

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79927

• Home prices YoY: -0.4%
• Rents YoY: 5.3%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 19.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,507 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$344 /mo · $4,124/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$736
• Net cashflow: $871

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,405

Max offer price $274,900

Occupancy floor 70%

3-unit breakdown (identical units grouped — click to expand)

Units	Beds	Baths	Est. rent
▸ 3× units	2	1	$3,507
Total (3 units)			$3,507

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
228 Flor Azucena Dr Socorro, TX	3.0	2.0	1767	$1,695	$0.96	2d	1	0.62mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Active 252 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 251 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $274,900 Active 250 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $274,900 Active 249 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $274,900 Active 247 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $274,900 Active 244 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $274,900 Active 243 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $274,900 Active 242 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $274,900 Active 241 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $274,900 Active 238 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,900 Active 237 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $274,900 Active 236 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $274,900 Active 235 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $274,900 Active 234 DOM
15. 2026-02-04
    price $299,500 169-char remark

    Show marketing remark (169 chars)

    THIS WELL MAINTAINED TRIPLEX IS THE PERFECT INVESTMENT PROPERTY TO ADD TO YOUR PORTFOLIO.. REFRIGERATED AIR, NO CARPET. WALKING DISTANCE FROM SCHOOL AND MAIN SOCORRO RD.

16. 2025-11-30
    price $279,000 169-char remark

    Show marketing remark (169 chars)

    THIS WELL MAINTAINED TRIPLEX IS THE PERFECT INVESTMENT PROPERTY TO ADD TO YOUR PORTFOLIO.. REFRIGERATED AIR, NO CARPET. WALKING DISTANCE FROM SCHOOL AND MAIN SOCORRO RD.

17. 2025-10-09
    listed $284,950 Active 169-char remark

    Show marketing remark (169 chars)

    THIS WELL MAINTAINED TRIPLEX IS THE PERFECT INVESTMENT PROPERTY TO ADD TO YOUR PORTFOLIO.. REFRIGERATED AIR, NO CARPET. WALKING DISTANCE FROM SCHOOL AND MAIN SOCORRO RD.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $42,084
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$4,124
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,367
• − Management: −$3,367
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable income: $6,457
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,550
• After-tax cash flow: $8,899/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This well-maintained triplex is a solid investment property with good condition and minimal updates needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Both Replace window treatments — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and improves comfort

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace window treatments — Improves aesthetics and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Install smart thermostat — Saves energy and improves comfort ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Socorro ISD
• NCES district ID: 4840710
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -34.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $49,318
• Composite: 25.67/100
• National rank: #7396
• State rank: #624 of 826 in TX

Livability — Socorro

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #830
• US rank: #14960

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Socorro, TX
• County: El Paso County · 761,266 people
• City population: 44,444
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,444
• Household income: $53,652
• Rent vs Own: 19.2% rent · 80.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 732.0

Population outlook (El Paso County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 897,899 people
• By 2030: 922,694 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 960,492 · +7.0%
• By 2050: 982,919 · +9.5%
• By 2075: 997,266 · +11.1%
• By 2100: 900,630 · +0.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 97% Two or more races 39% Native American 2% White 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 94%
• Foreign-born: 34% · Canada
• Languages at home: 16% English-only · Spanish 84%

Political lean MEDSL · El Paso

• 2024 margin: D (+15.1) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.4pp toward R · 2008: 32.5pp · 2024: 15.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.1 2020: D+35.1 2016: D+43.2 2012: D+32.6 2008: D+32.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.93%
• Current HPI: 239.646
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.29%
• Metro: El Paso, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+5.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Price Changed $299,500 GEPARMLS
• 2025-11-30 Price Changed $279,000 GEPARMLS
• 2025-10-09 Listed $284,950 GEPARMLS