435 High St #53 · Mystic, CT 06355

$135,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured public records · 45 Days on market

Built 2024 2,178 sqft lot $146/sqft · 11% below area Est $139k · at est. $600/mo HOA · 24% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New, never lived in manufactured home in a mobile home community. Minutes from I95 and Downtown Mystic. Military/EB/Pfizer discounts available!

Key facts

• 2,178 sq ft lot
• Parking
• Built 2024

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $591 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $131k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.5% vs local median 2.0% in Mystic — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#11 in CT, #1,266 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F, cost of living F.
• Groton School District (suburban): math 32% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #96 of 153 in CT (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 84 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 22d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 487 units permitted in Southeastern Connecticut Planning Region in 2024 (244 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($131k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 24% of rent.

Recommended offer $130,950 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.86% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.77%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $138,556
• List price: $135,000
• Delta: -2.57%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $16,104
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $63,824
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Connecticut: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Strong tenant statutes; rent commissions in some towns; courts slow especially in cities.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 06355

• Home prices YoY: -17.8%
• Active inventory: 84
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,516 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $390/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$600
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$528
• Net cashflow: $591

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,768

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $668	-5% $629	+0% $591	+5% $553	+10% $515
Rent	-10% $392	-5% $492	+0% $591	+5% $691	+10% $790
Rate	-1.0pp $659	-0.5pp $626	base $591	+0.5pp $556	+1.0pp $521

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45 W Main St Unit 2 Mystic, CT	2.0	1.0	900	$2,295	$2.55	14d	1	0.58mi
12 Water St Mystic, CT	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	912	$2,800	$3.07	14d	3	0.61mi
12 Water St Unit 408 Mystic, CT	2.0	1.0	1075	$2,800	$2.60	21d	1	0.64mi
2 Lincoln Ave Apt 3 Mystic, CT	2.0	1.0	900	$1,875	$2.08	21d	1	1.02mi
454 Cow Hill Rd Unit 2 Mystic, CT	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	44d	1	1.32mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $600 · $7,200/yr

Listing history 1 events

1. 2026-04-10
   listed $135,000 Active 144-char remark

   Show marketing remark (144 chars)

   New, never lived in manufactured home in a mobile home community. Minutes from I95 and Downtown Mystic. Military/EB/Pfizer discounts available!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $390 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,640 · $137/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,250/yr (+$104/mo · 320.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,197
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$390
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,416
• − Management: −$2,416
• − HOA: −$7,200
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $5,611
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,347
• After-tax cash flow: $5,748/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Groton School District
• NCES district ID: 0901770
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $60,709
• Composite: 36.28/100
• National rank: #4702
• State rank: #96 of 153 in CT

Livability — Mystic

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #11
• US rank: #1266

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: New London County · 147,197 people
• Metro: Norwich-New London, CT
• Population (ZIP): 12,173
• Household income: $137,425
• Rent vs Own: 19.0% rent · 81.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 197.0

Population outlook (Southeastern Connecticut County) Hauer SSP2

• By 2040: 293,442

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Two or more races 9% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Romanian 6% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Southeastern Connecticut

• 2024 margin: D (+13.0) · D 55.6% · R 42.6% · Other 1.8%
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -62.46%
• Current HPI: 287.7568
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Norwich-New London, CT
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.06%
• F500 in state: 38

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CT)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Machinery	4	$38B
▸Insurance	3	$71B
▸Financial Services	2	$25B
▸Transportation / Logistics	2	$18B
▸Healthcare	1	$247B
▸Telecommunications	1	$55B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Listed $135,000 Smart MLS

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2022): $390 · +93.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.