192 Circle Dr · Herrin, IL 62948

$90,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,828 sqft · SingleFamily · 27 Days on market

Built 1956 0.28 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Three bedroom, 1.5 bath large ranch style home with complete fenced in backyard. This home includes a large living room and eat in kitchen, formal dining room, and bonus sun room.

Key facts

• 0.28 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1956

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $398 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 11.6% vs local median 8.5% in Herrin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#667 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Herrin CUSD 4 (suburban): math 22% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #364 of 620 in IL (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Herrin High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #218 of 693 statewide, top 35%, 686 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 56% district-wide (56 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 130 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 10 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 4.1% of price; built in 1956 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $88,650 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1956 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.71% ✓
• Cap rate: 11.60%
• Cash-on-cash: 18.97%
• DSCR: 1.84
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $219,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
659 Copper Creek Ln	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,730 (-5%)	3mo	$267,500	$155	79
1205 Wildflower Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,898 (+4%)	2mo	$304,000	$160	75
805 Hilldale Ave	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,746 (-4%)	8mo	$174,900	$100	75
1117 E Ash St	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,840 (+1%)	6mo	$65,001	$35	74
1204 Prestwicke Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,853 (+1%)	1mo	$262,500	$142	67
1104 E Poplar St	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,664 (-9%)	4mo	$199,900	$120	65
1216 S 17th St	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,832 (+0%)	2mo	$153,400	$84	64
401 E Cross St	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,888 (+3%)	5mo	$202,500	$107	64
521 S 5th St	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,896 (+4%)	8mo	$150,000	$79	62
605 Legacy Dr	0.47mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,967 (+8%)	2mo	$258,000	$131	57
416 Park Ln	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,584 (-13%)	9mo	$152,000	$96	56
411 Prince Ln	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,691 (-8%)	2mo	$244,250	$144	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 10.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $10,932
• Equity at exit: $13,419

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.70×
• Total profit: $42,770
• Equity at exit: $7,782

Cash invested: $25,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62948

• Home prices YoY: -34.1%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,536 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$472
• Tax from tax record: −$306 /mo · $3,671/yr
• Insurance: −$38
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$323
• Net cashflow: $398

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,032

Max offer price $90,000

Occupancy floor 69%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,500
• Closing costs: $2,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 41 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $90,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $90,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $90,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $90,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $90,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $90,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $90,000 Active 20 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $90,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $90,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $90,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $90,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $90,000 Active 11 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    statusdays on market $90,000 Active 10 DOM
14. 2026-04-25
    status Pending
15. 2026-04-15
    listed $90,000 Active
16. 2025-04-25
    historical
17. 2025-04-25
    historical
18. 2025-04-25
    status Active
19. 2025-03-26
    status Pending
20. 2024-06-18
    listed Active
21. 2022-11-28
    soldstatus $143,500
22. 2022-11-22
    soldstatus $143,500 Closed 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Three bedroom, 1.5 bath large ranch style home with complete fenced in backyard. This home includes a large living room and eat in kitchen, formal dining room, and bonus sun room.

23. 2022-11-22
    soldstatus $143,500 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Three bedroom, 1.5 bath large ranch style home with complete fenced in backyard. This home includes a large living room and eat in kitchen, formal dining room, and bonus sun room.

24. 2022-08-29
    historical Under Contract 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Three bedroom, 1.5 bath large ranch style home with complete fenced in backyard. This home includes a large living room and eat in kitchen, formal dining room, and bonus sun room.

25. 2022-08-25
    price $139,150 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Three bedroom, 1.5 bath large ranch style home with complete fenced in backyard. This home includes a large living room and eat in kitchen, formal dining room, and bonus sun room.

26. 2022-08-11
    listed $142,900 Active 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Three bedroom, 1.5 bath large ranch style home with complete fenced in backyard. This home includes a large living room and eat in kitchen, formal dining room, and bonus sun room.

27. 2022-08-11
    listed $139,150 179-char remark

    Show marketing remark (179 chars)

    Three bedroom, 1.5 bath large ranch style home with complete fenced in backyard. This home includes a large living room and eat in kitchen, formal dining room, and bonus sun room.

28. 2021-08-06
    historical
29. 2015-04-29
    soldstatus $112,500
30. 2015-04-29
    soldstatus $112,500
31. 2015-03-25
    listed $115,000
32. 2015-03-25
    listed $115,000
33. 2012-11-06
    soldstatus $85,000
34. 2012-11-06
    soldstatus $85,000
35. 2012-11-05
    soldstatus $85,000
36. 2012-05-01
    listed $85,000
37. 2012-05-01
    listed $85,000
38. 2012-04-07
    historical
39. 2004-09-07
    soldstatus $75,000
40. 2004-09-03
    soldstatus $75,000
41. 2003-11-20
    listed $80,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,671 · $306/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,671 · $306/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,437
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,041
• − Property taxes: −$3,671
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,475
• − Management: −$1,475
• − Depreciation: −$2,618
• Taxable income: $3,707
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$890
• After-tax cash flow: $3,891/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Herrin CUSD 4
• NCES district ID: 1718810
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $38,824
• Composite: 20.56/100
• National rank: #8558
• State rank: #364 of 620 in IL

Livability — Herrin

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #667
• US rank: #13670

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Herrin, IL
• City population: 12,728
• Population (ZIP): 12,728

Population outlook (Williamson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 69,553 people
• By 2030: 70,090 · +0.8%
• By 2040: 70,345 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 69,394 · -0.2%
• By 2075: 63,590 · -8.6%
• By 2100: 51,154 · -26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+38.8) · D 30.0% · R 68.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -24.0pp toward R · 2008: -14.8pp · 2024: -38.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+38.8 2020: R+37.3 2016: R+41.2 2012: R+25.0 2008: R+14.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -67.82%
• Current HPI: 131.1617
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+12.5% since first listed

28 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-25 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $90,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-25 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-25 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-25 Relisted — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-26 Pending — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-18 Listed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-28 Sold (Public Records) $143,500 Public Records
• 2022-11-22 Sold (MLS) $143,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-11-22 Sold (MLS) $143,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-29 Contingent — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-25 Price Changed $139,150 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-11 Listed $139,150 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-11 Listed $142,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-29 Sold (MLS) $112,500 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-04-29 Sold (MLS) $112,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-25 Listed $115,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-03-25 Listed $115,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-06 Sold (MLS) $85,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-06 Sold (MLS) $85,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-11-05 Sold (Public Records) $85,000 Public Records
• 2012-05-01 Listed $85,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-05-01 Listed $85,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-07 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2004-09-07 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2004-09-03 Sold (MLS) $75,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-11-20 Listed $80,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,671 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.