1050 Ridgeway Rd · New Home, TX 79383

$699,500

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,205 sqft · SingleFamily · 98 Days on market

Built 2026 1.00 ac lot $21/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the ultimate in spacious sophistication with this 3,205-square-foot residence located in the prestigious New Home ISD. This 4-bedroom, 3.5-bathroom home makes a grand statement with soaring cathedral ceilings and exquisite custom millwork throughout an open-concept layout. The gourmet kitchen is a standout feature, uniquely designed with double islands for maximum workspace and style, complemented by a designated formal dining area and an expansive working pantry. Versatility is key with a secluded bonus room ideal for a media space or home office, while the luxurious master suite offers a spa-inspired retreat. Complete with a 3-car garage and a large covered patio perfect for soaking in wide-open views, this property at The Palms at Kitty Hawk offers a refined lifestyle with easy access to all the modern conveniences of South Lubbock.

Key facts

• Secluded bonus room
• Gourmet kitchen
• Large covered patio

Tags

• GOURMET KITCHEN
• DOUBLE ISLANDS
• WORKING PANTRY
• SECLUDED BONUS ROOM
• LUXURIOUS MASTER SUITE
• LARGE COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $700k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-826 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $580k (17.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $510k (27.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $510k (27.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#343 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• New Home ISD (rural): math 71% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #16 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 119 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($5k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Lynn County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($637k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $510,000 (27.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 27% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.73% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.06%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $31,741
• Equity at exit: $314,525

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.95×
• Total profit: $186,964
• Equity at exit: $484,721

Cash invested: $195,860 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79383

• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 11.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $5,100 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,668
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$874 /mo · $10,492/yr
• Insurance: −$291
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,071
• Net cashflow: $-826

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,146

Max offer price $579,964

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $174,875
• Closing costs: $20,985
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
309 Juniper St New Home, TX	4.0	3.0	2594	$5,100	$1.97	13d	1	0.54mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $699,500 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $699,500 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $699,500 Active 96 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $699,500 Active 95 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $699,500 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $699,500 Active 90 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $699,500 Active 89 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $699,500 Active 88 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $699,500 Active 87 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $699,500 Active 84 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $699,500 Active 83 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $699,500 Active 82 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $699,500 Active 81 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $699,500 Active 80 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $699,500 Active 79 DOM
16. 2026-03-12
    listed $699,500 Active 856-char remark

    Show marketing remark (856 chars)

    Discover the ultimate in spacious sophistication with this 3,205-square-foot residence located in the prestigious New Home ISD. This 4-bedroom, 3.5-bathroom home makes a grand statement with soaring cathedral ceilings and exquisite custom millwork throughout an open-concept layout. The gourmet kitchen is a standout feature, uniquely designed with double islands for maximum workspace and style, complemented by a designated formal dining area and an expansive working pantry. Versatility is key with a secluded bonus room ideal for a media space or home office, while the luxurious master suite offers a spa-inspired retreat. Complete with a 3-car garage and a large covered patio perfect for soaking in wide-open views, this property at The Palms at Kitty Hawk offers a refined lifestyle with easy access to all the modern conveniences of South Lubbock.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $61,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$39,183
• − Property taxes: −$10,492
• − Insurance: −$3,498
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$4,896
• − Management: −$4,896
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$20,349
• Taxable loss: −$22,366
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,368
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,545/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: New Home ISD
• NCES district ID: 4832490
• Math proficiency: 71% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $57,372
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #845
• State rank: #16 of 826 in TX

Livability — New Home

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #343
• US rank: #7488

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 47
• Population (ZIP): 47

Population outlook (Lynn County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,360 people
• By 2030: 5,162 · -3.7%
• By 2040: 4,811 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 4,422 · -17.5%
• By 2075: 3,362 · -37.3%
• By 2100: 2,177 · -59.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 68% White 32% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 68%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 66% English-only · Spanish 34%

Political lean MEDSL · Lynn

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.3) · D 14.4% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -30.3pp toward R · 2008: -40.0pp · 2024: -70.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.3 2020: R+62.1 2016: R+57.2 2012: R+49.3 2008: R+40.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-12 Listed $699,500 LARMLS