1855 W Poplar Woods Cir #305 · Germantown, TN 38138

$74,950

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 759 sqft · Condo public records · 17 Days on market

Built 1970

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great opportunity for an owner-occupant or investor! This 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo located in Fountain Square Condominiums offers convenience and value in a prime location. Enjoy easy access to shopping, restaurants, and major freeway connections, making daily commutes and errands a breeze. Whether you’re looking to downsize, purchase your first home, or add to your rental portfolio, this condo presents a solid opportunity with strong potential. The property is being offered in AS-IS condition, providing the perfect chance to customize and add your personal touch. Purchasers may use any lender they chose to finance the purchase of a property. However, the seller requires that all non-cash offers must be pre-qualified by their preferred lender. Please contact listing agent for details.

Key facts

• Built 1970
• Listed 17 days

Tags

• FOUNTAIN SQUARE CONDOMINIUMS
• EASY ACCESS TO SHOPPING
• EASY ACCESS TO RESTAURANTS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $75k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $487 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $75k).
• Recommended offer: $74k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#83 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Germantown (suburban): math 51% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #4 of 139 in TN (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 9% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 245 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 20d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,020 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (1,041 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 11% of the median local income ($136k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $518 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.2% rent growth), your $21k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($74k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (21%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $54k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $73,825 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.73% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.09%
• Cash-on-cash: 27.86%
• DSCR: 2.24
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $20,484
• Equity at exit: $11,175

10-year hold

• IRR: 32.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.07×
• Total profit: $64,506
• Equity at exit: $6,480

Cash invested: $20,986 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38138

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 245
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,294 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$393
• Tax from tax record: −$110 /mo · $1,326/yr
• Insurance: −$31
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$272
• Net cashflow: $487

Break-even live

Break-even rent $677

Max offer price $74,950

Occupancy floor 57%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $18,738
• Closing costs: $2,248
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1855 Poplar Woods Cir W #104 Germantown, TN	1.0	1.0	759	$950	$1.25	43d	1	0.03mi
1855 Poplar Woods Cir W Germantown, TN	1.0	1.0	759	$950	$1.25	19d	2	0.06mi
1869 Poplar Woods Cir E Germantown, TN	2.0	1.5	1115	$1,295	$1.16	4d	1	0.14mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $74,950 Pending 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $74,950 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $74,950 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $74,950 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,950 Active 13 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $74,950 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $74,950 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $74,950 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $74,950 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $74,950 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $74,950 Active 3 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $74,950 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on marketlisting id $74,950 Active 1 DOM
14. 2026-05-06
    price $74,950 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Great opportunity for an owner-occupant or investor! This 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo located in Fountain Square Condominiums offers convenience and value in a prime location. Enjoy easy access to shopping, restaurants, and major freeway connections, making daily commutes and errands a breeze. Whether you’re looking to downsize, purchase your first home, or add to your rental portfolio, this condo presents a solid opportunity with strong potential. The property is being offered in AS-IS condition, providing the perfect chance to customize and add your personal touch. Purchasers may use any lender they chose to finance the purchase of a property. However, the seller requires that all non-cash offers must be pre-qualified by their preferred lender. Please contact listing agent for details.

15. 2026-05-06
    price $74,950 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Great opportunity for an owner-occupant or investor! This 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo located in Fountain Square Condominiums offers convenience and value in a prime location. Enjoy easy access to shopping, restaurants, and major freeway connections, making daily commutes and errands a breeze. Whether you’re looking to downsize, purchase your first home, or add to your rental portfolio, this condo presents a solid opportunity with strong potential. The property is being offered in AS-IS condition, providing the perfect chance to customize and add your personal touch. Purchasers may use any lender they chose to finance the purchase of a property. However, the seller requires that all non-cash offers must be pre-qualified by their preferred lender. Please contact listing agent for details.

16. 2026-04-06
    price $84,950 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Great opportunity for an owner-occupant or investor! This 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo located in Fountain Square Condominiums offers convenience and value in a prime location. Enjoy easy access to shopping, restaurants, and major freeway connections, making daily commutes and errands a breeze. Whether you’re looking to downsize, purchase your first home, or add to your rental portfolio, this condo presents a solid opportunity with strong potential. The property is being offered in AS-IS condition, providing the perfect chance to customize and add your personal touch. Purchasers may use any lender they chose to finance the purchase of a property. However, the seller requires that all non-cash offers must be pre-qualified by their preferred lender. Please contact listing agent for details.

17. 2026-04-06
    price $84,950 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Great opportunity for an owner-occupant or investor! This 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo located in Fountain Square Condominiums offers convenience and value in a prime location. Enjoy easy access to shopping, restaurants, and major freeway connections, making daily commutes and errands a breeze. Whether you’re looking to downsize, purchase your first home, or add to your rental portfolio, this condo presents a solid opportunity with strong potential. The property is being offered in AS-IS condition, providing the perfect chance to customize and add your personal touch. Purchasers may use any lender they chose to finance the purchase of a property. However, the seller requires that all non-cash offers must be pre-qualified by their preferred lender. Please contact listing agent for details.

18. 2026-03-04
    listed $94,900 Active 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Great opportunity for an owner-occupant or investor! This 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo located in Fountain Square Condominiums offers convenience and value in a prime location. Enjoy easy access to shopping, restaurants, and major freeway connections, making daily commutes and errands a breeze. Whether you’re looking to downsize, purchase your first home, or add to your rental portfolio, this condo presents a solid opportunity with strong potential. The property is being offered in AS-IS condition, providing the perfect chance to customize and add your personal touch. Purchasers may use any lender they chose to finance the purchase of a property. However, the seller requires that all non-cash offers must be pre-qualified by their preferred lender. Please contact listing agent for details.

19. 2026-03-03
    listed $94,900 Active 800-char remark

    Show marketing remark (800 chars)

    Great opportunity for an owner-occupant or investor! This 1-bedroom, 1-bath condo located in Fountain Square Condominiums offers convenience and value in a prime location. Enjoy easy access to shopping, restaurants, and major freeway connections, making daily commutes and errands a breeze. Whether you’re looking to downsize, purchase your first home, or add to your rental portfolio, this condo presents a solid opportunity with strong potential. The property is being offered in AS-IS condition, providing the perfect chance to customize and add your personal touch. Purchasers may use any lender they chose to finance the purchase of a property. However, the seller requires that all non-cash offers must be pre-qualified by their preferred lender. Please contact listing agent for details.

20. 2021-01-11
    soldstatus $54,000
21. 2018-01-19
    soldstatus $37,000
22. 1994-06-27
    soldstatus $36,719
23. 1989-07-28
    soldstatus $38,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,326 · $110/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,326 · $110/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 16% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,524
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,326
• − Insurance: −$375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,242
• − Management: −$1,242
• − Depreciation: −$2,180
• Taxable income: $4,961
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,191
• After-tax cash flow: $4,656/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Germantown
• NCES district ID: 4700151
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $79,101
• Composite: 49.28/100
• National rank: #2026
• State rank: #4 of 139 in TN

Livability — Germantown

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #9355

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Germantown, TN
• County: Shelby County · 895,435 people
• City population: 25,167
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• Population (ZIP): 25,167
• Household income: $136,297
• Rent vs Own: 20.2% rent · 79.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 686.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 952,522 people
• By 2030: 952,970 · +0.0%
• By 2040: 945,842 · -0.7%
• By 2050: 928,211 · -2.6%
• By 2075: 877,898 · -7.8%
• By 2100: 794,112 · -16.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Black 6% Asian 5% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+25.4) · D 61.8% · R 36.4% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.0pp toward R · 2008: 27.4pp · 2024: 25.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+25.4 2020: D+30.4 2016: D+27.6 2012: D+26.1 2008: D+27.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -219.64%
• Current HPI: 208.886
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.19%
• Metro: Memphis, TN-MS-AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+97.2% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $74,950 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2026-05-06 Price Changed $74,950 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $84,950 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2026-04-06 Price Changed $84,950 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-04 Listed $94,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-03 Listed $94,900 Memphis Area Association of Realtors(R) MLS
• 2021-01-11 Sold (Public Records) $54,000 Public Records
• 2018-01-19 Sold (Public Records) $37,000 Public Records
• 1994-06-27 Sold (Public Records) $36,719 Public Records
• 1989-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,326 · +57.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.