8215 Quail Hills Dr · Houston, TX 77489

$198,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,649 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 135 Days on market

Built 1980 8,398 sqft lot $120/sqft · 14% below area Est $230k · 14% under $34/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.7/15.0
• Cash flow +13.3/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This is a four-bedroom, two full-bath home that was previously used as a group home, complete with fire alarm equipment already installed. It needs some cosmetic work but is ready for the next investor or new buyer.

Key facts

• 8,398 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1980

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $198k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1 ($14/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (3.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $174k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D, crime F.
• Fort Bend ISD (suburban): math 44% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #140 of 826 in TX (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 186 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($75k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $278 of equity ($1k loan paydown + $-1k appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($174k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $22k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $174,240 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.02%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $229,652
• List price: $198,000
• Delta: -13.78%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16610 Quail Prairie Dr	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,644 (-0%)	4mo	$239,500	$146	81
16626 Quail Run Dr	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,644 (-0%)	6mo	$210,000	$128	76
2507 Rittenmore Dr	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (-5%)	1mo	$235,000	$150	74
16718 Running Quail Ct	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,686 (+2%)	1mo	$235,000	$139	67
2115 Pepperglen Ct	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,590 (-4%)	4mo	$235,000	$148	64
16614 Quiet Quail Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,505 (-9%)	6mo	$199,999	$133	61
8434 Quail Crest Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,560 (-5%)	3mo	$239,500	$154	61
2422 Doverglen Dr	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,848 (+12%)	1mo	$249,000	$135	60
2435 Buttonhill Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0	1,420 (-14%)	3mo	$195,000	$137	58
2211 N Heatherwood Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,805 (+10%)	5mo	$268,900	$149	54
16711 Running Quail Ct	0.58mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (-9%)	3mo	$210,000	$140	50
7539 Maczali Dr	0.62mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,404 (-15%)	0mo	$231,660	$165	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.55% appreciation · 0.34% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.72×
• Total profit: $-15,668
• Equity at exit: $52,097

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.78×
• Total profit: $-12,117
• Equity at exit: $58,464

Cash invested: $55,440 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77489

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,915 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,038
• Tax from tax record: −$357 /mo · $4,286/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$34
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $1

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,914

Max offer price $198,000

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,500
• Closing costs: $5,940
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
16310 Setter Ct Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1672	$1,700	$1.02	44d	1	0.12mi
712 Beechbend Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	2245	$2,250	$1.00	21d	1	0.54mi
15823 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1335	$1,641	$1.23	5d	1	0.69mi
1215 New Tree Ln Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1323	$1,725	$1.30	13d	1	0.78mi
15703 Baybriar Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,615	$1.29	20d	1	0.85mi
507 Whippoorwill Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1970	$1,925	$0.98	44d	1	1.18mi
17318 Edgehaven Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1448	$1,695	$1.17	21d	1	1.20mi
1806 Courtside Place Dr Missouri City, TX	4.0	2.5	1974	$1,915	$0.97	13d	1	1.21mi
1919 Doliver Cir Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,000	$1.32	44d	1	1.32mi
2026 Summer Place Dr Missouri City, TX	3.0	2.0	1837	$1,861	$1.01	21d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $34 · $408/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $198,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $198,000 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $198,000 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $198,000 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $198,000 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $205,000 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $205,000 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   statusdays on market $205,000 Pending 121 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $205,000 Active 120 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $205,000 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $205,000 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $205,000 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-03-20
    price $205,000 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    This is a four-bedroom, two full-bath home that was previously used as a group home, complete with fire alarm equipment already installed. It needs some cosmetic work but is ready for the next investor or new buyer.

14. 2026-02-03
    listed $220,000 Active 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    This is a four-bedroom, two full-bath home that was previously used as a group home, complete with fire alarm equipment already installed. It needs some cosmetic work but is ready for the next investor or new buyer.

15. 2024-03-06
    historical $1,800
16. 2023-12-20
    listed $1,800
17. 2005-07-14
    soldstatus
18. 1999-04-16
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,286 · $357/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,286 · $357/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,091
• − Property taxes: −$4,286
• − Insurance: −$990
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,839
• − Management: −$1,839
• − HOA: −$408
• − Depreciation: −$5,760
• Taxable loss: −$3,228
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$775
• After-tax cash flow: $788/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fort Bend ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819650
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $82,360
• Composite: 44.61/100
• National rank: #2779
• State rank: #140 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Houston, TX
• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 39,292
• Household income: $74,689
• Rent vs Own: 22.9% rent · 77.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1121.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 60% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% White 4% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Vietnamese 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.55%
• Current HPI: 288.1306
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.34%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+11288.9% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-20 Price Changed $205,000 HARMLS
• 2026-02-03 Listed $220,000 HARMLS
• 2024-03-06 Rental Removed $1,800 HARMLS
• 2023-12-20 Listed for Rent $1,800 HARMLS
• 2005-07-14 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 1999-04-16 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,286 · -5.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.