1283 Poplar Dr #47 · Arcata, CA 95521

$119,500

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 756 sqft · Manufactured · 2 Days on market

Built 1973

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.6/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.3/10.0
• Rent growth +4.5/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Owner may carry! Why rent when you can move right into this newly renovated home in desirable Arcata family park?! This 2 bedroom 2 bath home was completely remodeled in 2021 and is ready for you to move right in! Newer appliances are in great condition, the home also offers an on demand tankless water heater. The exterior has been very well maintained and offers a newer roof, Hardi Plank siding and a low maintenance yard. The large corner lot is situated near the back of the park close to the recreation hall and a large grassy area for your enjoyment. The park is tucked away yet close to Cal Poly Humboldt, shopping, dining, bus lines and other services. Call to schedule a private showing t

Key facts

• Low maintenance yard
• Hardi plank siding
• Large corner lot

Tags

• NEWLY RENOVATED HOME
• NEWER ROOF
• HARDI PLANK SIDING
• LOW MAINTENANCE YARD
• LARGE CORNER LOT

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Located in Valley West mobile home park; Mobile home make: Clayton, model 2712

Exterior

• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Concrete construction
• Exterior features: Oversized lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Range hood
• Flooring: Carpet; Wood
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Eat-in kitchen; Total of 5 rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $395 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 1.9% in Arcata — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#275 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, schools A-; Watch: housing C-, crime D-, commute F.
• Pacific Union Elementary (town): math 40% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #560 of 1,400 in CA (top 40%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.1%/yr); 82 active listings in the ZIP; 188 units permitted in Humboldt County in 2024 (17 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($53k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $826 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Humboldt County population projected to shrink 4% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $119,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.23% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.17%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.40×
• Total profit: $13,544
• Equity at exit: $17,818

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.37×
• Total profit: $79,440
• Equity at exit: $10,332

Cash invested: $33,460 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95521

• Rents YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 82
• Price-to-rent: 6.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,468 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$627
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,054/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$308
• Net cashflow: $395

Break-even live

Break-even rent $967

Max offer price $119,500

Occupancy floor 68%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,875
• Closing costs: $3,585
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-26
   listed $119,500 Active
2. 2026-01-02
   listed $119,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,054 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,054 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 9 d/yr ≥72°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 9 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,612
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,694
• − Property taxes: −$1,054
• − Insurance: −$598
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,409
• − Management: −$1,409
• − Depreciation: −$3,476
• Taxable income: $2,972
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$713
• After-tax cash flow: $4,029/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pacific Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0629430
• Math proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,146
• Composite: 41.08/100
• National rank: #7442
• State rank: #560 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Arcata

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #275
• US rank: #9258

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment F Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Arcata, CA
• County: Humboldt County · 88,652 people
• City population: 21,980
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• Population (ZIP): 21,980
• Household income: $53,114
• Rent vs Own: 59.8% rent · 40.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 2139.0

Population outlook (Humboldt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 135,550 people
• By 2030: 134,798 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 132,222 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 130,850 · -3.5%
• By 2075: 128,656 · -5.1%
• By 2100: 120,238 · -11.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Asian 2% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Russian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Humboldt

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+28.4) · D 62.0% · R 33.6% · Other 4.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.2pp no change · 2008: 28.2pp · 2024: 28.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+28.4 2020: D+33.4 2016: D+25.9 2012: D+26.2 2008: D+28.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -373.51%
• Current HPI: 208.5938
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.08%
• Metro: Eureka-Arcata, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $119,500 HAR
• 2026-01-02 Listed $119,500 HAR

Property tax history

+18.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,054 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.