801 W Oak St #133 · Page, AZ 86040

$58,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured · 135 Days on market

Built 2001 Fair condition $65/sqft · 6% below area Est $62k · 6% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 2 Bed / 1 Bath Home on Corner Lot in Chapman Mobile Home Park This 2001 Cavco singlewide manufactured home is situated on a desirable corner lot in Chapman Mobile Home Park in Page, AZ. Offering 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, this home features a functional layout with comfortable living space throughout. The open living area connects to the kitchen and dining space, creating an efficient and inviting floor plan. Both bedrooms are well-sized, and the bathroom is conveniently located for easy access. The corner lot provides added privacy and outdoor space. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation including Lake Powell.

Key facts

• Outdoor recreation
• Added privacy
• Open living area

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• OPEN LIVING AREA
• KITCHEN AND DINING SPACE
• ADDED PRIVACY
• OUTDOOR RECREATION

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $58k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $689 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $58k).
• Recommended offer: $51k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#40 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: commute F, housing F.
• Page Unified District (4196) (town): math 11% / reading 14% proficiency, ranked #219 of 249 in AZ (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 698 units permitted in Coconino County in 2024 (354 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $401 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Coconino County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 135 days — a 12% lower offer ($51k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 1→2/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $51,040 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 135 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.38% ✓
• Cap rate: 20.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 50.88%
• DSCR: 3.26
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,750
• List price: $58,000
• Delta: -6.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
801 Oak St #143	0.00mi	2/2.0	986 (+10%)	7mo	$58,500	$59	74
841 Spruce Ave	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	980 (+9%)	14mo	$105,000	$107	35

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 48.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $34,479
• Equity at exit: $8,648

10-year hold

• IRR: 54.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.33×
• Total profit: $86,580
• Equity at exit: $5,015

Cash invested: $16,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 86040

• Home prices YoY: -11.9%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,379 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$304
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$72 /mo · $870/yr
• Insurance: −$24
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $689

Break-even live

Break-even rent $507

Max offer price $58,000

Occupancy floor 45%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,500
• Closing costs: $1,740
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
90 Elk Rd Page, AZ	2.0–3.0	1.0–1.5	870	$1,379	$1.59	43d	6	1.12mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $58,000 Active 135 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $58,000 Active 134 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $58,000 Active 133 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $58,000 Active 132 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $58,000 Active 131 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $58,000 Active 129 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $58,000 Active 128 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $58,000 Active 125 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $58,000 Active 124 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $58,000 Active 123 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $58,000 Active 122 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $58,000 Active 119 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $58,000 Active 118 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $58,000 Active 117 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $58,000 Active 116 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $58,000 Active 115 DOM
17. 2026-02-04
    listed $58,000 Active 663-char remark

    Show marketing remark (663 chars)

    Charming 2 Bed / 1 Bath Home on Corner Lot in Chapman Mobile Home Park This 2001 Cavco singlewide manufactured home is situated on a desirable corner lot in Chapman Mobile Home Park in Page, AZ. Offering 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, this home features a functional layout with comfortable living space throughout. The open living area connects to the kitchen and dining space, creating an efficient and inviting floor plan. Both bedrooms are well-sized, and the bathroom is conveniently located for easy access. The corner lot provides added privacy and outdoor space. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, and outdoor recreation including Lake Powell.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 1 d/yr ≥98°F today · 2 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,548
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,249
• − Property taxes: −$870
• − Insurance: −$290
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,324
• − Management: −$1,324
• − Depreciation: −$1,687
• Taxable income: $7,804
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,873
• After-tax cash flow: $6,390/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This manufactured home requires significant repairs and updates to its exterior, interior, and systems, but has potential for substantial value increase with proper renovations.

Repairs flagged

• Major siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — Siding condition suggests potential leak
• Major flooring — Worn wooden deck, potential rot
• Major interior walls/paint — Painted walls appear faded and chipped

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value
• Both Replace wooden deck — A new deck can enhance curb appeal and functionality
• Both Replace siding and roof — New siding and roof can significantly improve the home's appearance and value
• Both Update kitchen and bathrooms — Fresh updates can make the home more appealing to potential buyers/renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · Siding condition suggests potential leak	Major	$15,000–50,000
flooring · Worn wooden deck, potential rot	Major	$15,000–50,000
interior walls/paint · Painted walls appear faded and chipped	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 4 items		$60,000–200,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both Replace wooden deck — A new deck can enhance curb appeal and functionality ↑
• Both Replace siding and roof — New siding and roof can significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Both Update kitchen and bathrooms — Fresh updates can make the home more appealing to potential buyers/renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Page Unified District (4196)
• NCES district ID: 0405820
• Math proficiency: 11% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 14% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $48,872
• Composite: 11.58/100
• National rank: #9698
• State rank: #219 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Page

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #40
• US rank: #7895

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment C+ Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Page, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,627

Population outlook (Coconino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 150,645 people
• By 2030: 156,857 · +4.1%
• By 2040: 168,714 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 181,082 · +20.2%
• By 2075: 218,399 · +45.0%
• By 2100: 238,853 · +58.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.89)
• Race & ethnicity: Native American 55% White 33% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China, Canada, Philippines
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Coconino

• 2024 margin: D (+19.9) · D 59.2% · R 39.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.9pp toward D · 2008: 17.0pp · 2024: 19.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.9 2020: D+24.1 2016: D+19.4 2012: D+14.9 2008: D+17.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -35.54%
• Current HPI: 263.6101
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-04 Listed $58,000 NAZMLS