613 W Bunker Hill St · Florence, AZ 85132

$299,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,051 sqft · Land · 54 Days on market

Built 2026 6,556 sqft lot $79/mo HOA · 4% of rent ↓ 54% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home is estimated to be completed in July/Aug of 2026. The Kingston floorplan is a stunning single level home with 2,051 square feet and 4 spacious bedrooms. This home has so much to offer with it's high 9' ceilings, and modern amenities like granite countertops, 4'' baseboards, 42'' cabinet uppers with soft close and stainless steel appliances, it's sure to appeal to many buyers and families. The combination of 18X18 ceramic tile flooring throughout and durable carpet in the bedrooms offers both practicality and comfort. This home even has an upgraded 8ft double gate for your toys. THIS IS OUR SPECIAL CASH PRICE! Ask about BELOW MARKET Interest Rates and Closing Cost Incentive when you el

Key facts

• Upgraded double gate
• Granite countertops
• 6,556 sq ft lot

Tags

• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• CERAMIC TILE FLOORING
• UPGRADED DOUBLE GATE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee of $79 covering grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking for 2 vehicles; 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer; Power from local utility
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership; Under construction
• Construction: Stucco and wood frame construction; Spray foam insulation; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Front sprinklers; Desert front landscaping; Block fencing; County-maintained road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Built-in microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Kitchen island; Granite counters
• Bedrooms: Up to 4 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: High-speed internet; Smart home features; Granite counters; Double vanity in bath; 9+ foot flat ceilings; Kitchen island; Full bath in master bedroom; Low-emissivity dual-pane vinyl-frame windows
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookup only

🏗️ New construction. The $299,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $33,523.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $230k (23.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $211k (29.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $211k (29.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 54.8% vs local median 4.1% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Florence K-8 (math 17% / reading 23%, grade F, #742 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 771 students, 56% FRL); Florence High School (math 8% / reading 12%, grade F, #343 of 381 statewide, top 93%, 796 students, 44% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 737 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $231 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 1.3% rent growth), your $9k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 54 days — a 3% lower offer ($291k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $210,903 (29.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 54 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 6.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 54.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 173.29%
• DSCR: 8.71
• GRM: 1.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $33,523
• List price: $299,990
• Delta: 794.87%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.24×
• Total profit: $77,369
• Equity at exit: $4,998

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.53×
• Total profit: $164,559
• Equity at exit: $2,898

Cash invested: $9,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 737
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,109 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$176
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$42 /mo · $503/yr
• Insurance: −$14
• HOA: −$79
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$443
• Net cashflow: $1,355

Break-even live

Break-even rent $393

Max offer price $33,523

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,379	-5% $1,367	+0% $1,355	+5% $1,344	+10% $1,332
Rent	-10% $1,189	-5% $1,272	+0% $1,355	+5% $1,439	+10% $1,522
Rate	-1.0pp $1,372	-0.5pp $1,364	base $1,355	+0.5pp $1,347	+1.0pp $1,338

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,381
• Closing costs: $1,006
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
144 S Mulberry St Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,495	$1.06	45d	1	0.75mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $79 · $948/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $299,990 Active 54 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $299,990 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $299,990 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $299,990 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $299,990 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $299,990 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,990 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,990 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $299,990 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $299,990 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $299,990 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $299,990 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,990 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,990 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-09
    price $299,990 736-char remark
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $304,990 Active 736-char remark
18. 2003-10-22
    soldstatus $650,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,308
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,878
• − Property taxes: −$503
• − Insurance: −$168
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,025
• − Management: −$2,025
• − HOA: −$948
• − Depreciation: −$975
• Taxable income: $16,788
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,029
• After-tax cash flow: $12,237/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-53.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $299,990 ARMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $304,990 ARMLS
• 2003-10-22 Sold (Public Records) $650,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-29.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $18 · -44.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.