Tr A ASLS 77-118 · Skwentna, AK 99000

$50,000

1 bd · None ba · 400 sqft · SingleFamily · 124 Days on market

Built 1900 Poor condition 5.00 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Insulated cabin on Otter Lake with stunning views! Property is a great for hunters & fishermen. Cabin is dry with a bedroom upstairs and kitchen downstairs and small area to sit, also has a wood burning stove.

Key facts

• Stunning views
• Insulated cabin
• Wood burning stove

Tags

• INSULATED CABIN
• STUNNING VIEWS
• WOOD BURNING STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $50k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $468 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 41/100 on livability (#303 in AK) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District (town): math 42% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #5 of 21 in AK (top 24%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 91 units permitted in Matanuska-Susitna Borough in 2024 (25 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($346 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Matanuska-Susitna County population projected at +50% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 124 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $44,000 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 124 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.53%
• Cash-on-cash: 40.11%
• DSCR: 2.78
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 45.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $35,846
• Equity at exit: $22,482

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.13×
• Total profit: $85,864
• Equity at exit: $34,648

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alaska: 80 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

30-day notice; security deposits capped; courts moderate-paced.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 99000

• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,030 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $750/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$216
• Net cashflow: $468

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $50,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $503	-5% $485	+0% $468	+5% $451	+10% $433
Rent	-10% $387	-5% $427	+0% $468	+5% $509	+10% $549
Rate	-1.0pp $493	-0.5pp $481	base $468	+0.5pp $455	+1.0pp $442

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $50,000 Active 124 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $50,000 Active 123 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $50,000 Active 122 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $50,000 Active 121 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $50,000 Active 119 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $50,000 Active 118 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $50,000 Active 116 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 115 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 114 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $50,000 Active 113 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 109 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 108 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 107 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 106 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $50,000 Active 105 DOM
16. 2026-02-14
    listed $50,000 Active 215-char remark

    Show marketing remark (215 chars)

    Insulated cabin on Otter Lake with stunning views! Property is a great for hunters & fishermen. Cabin is dry with a bedroom upstairs and kitchen downstairs and small area to sit, also has a wood burning stove.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,358
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$750
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$989
• − Management: −$989
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $5,125
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,230
• After-tax cash flow: $4,386/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 3 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This insulated cabin on Otter Lake requires extensive renovations to bring it up to modern standards, significantly increasing its resale and rental value.

Repairs flagged

• Major Kitchen — No photos of the kitchen show any condition.
• Major Bathrooms — No photos of the bathrooms show any condition.
• Major Roof — No photos of the roof show any condition.
• Major Exterior — No photos of the exterior show any condition.
• Major Flooring — No photos of the flooring show any condition.
• Major Interior walls/paint — No photos of the interior walls/paint show any condition.
• Major Windows — No photos of the windows show any condition.
• Major Foundation/structure — No photos of the foundation/structure show any condition.
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals show any condition.
• Major Landscaping/curb appeal — No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal show any condition.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Renovate the kitchen and bathrooms — A modern kitchen and updated bathrooms would significantly enhance the home's appeal for both resale and rental.
• Both Replace the roof and exterior siding — A new roof and siding would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value.
• Both Paint interior walls and replace flooring — Fresh paint and new flooring would make the interior more inviting and increase the home's value.
• Both Upgrade HVAC and mechanical systems — Modern HVAC and mechanical systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value.
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained yard and landscaping would enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Kitchen · No photos of the kitchen show any condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Bathrooms · No photos of the bathrooms show any condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Roof · No photos of the roof show any condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exterior · No photos of the exterior show any condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Flooring · No photos of the flooring show any condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Interior walls/paint · No photos of the interior walls/paint show any condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Windows · No photos of the windows show any condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Foundation/structure · No photos of the foundation/structure show any condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No photos of the HVAC/mechanicals show any condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Landscaping/curb appeal · No photos of the landscaping/curb appeal show any condition.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 10 items		$150,000–500,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Renovate the kitchen and bathrooms — A modern kitchen and updated bathrooms would significantly enhance the home's appeal for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Replace the roof and exterior siding — A new roof and siding would improve the home's curb appeal and increase its value. ↑
• Both Paint interior walls and replace flooring — Fresh paint and new flooring would make the interior more inviting and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Upgrade HVAC and mechanical systems — Modern HVAC and mechanical systems would improve comfort and energy efficiency, enhancing both resale and rental value. ↑
• Both Landscaping and curb appeal improvements — A well-maintained yard and landscaping would enhance the home's curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Matanuska-Susitna Borough School District
• NCES district ID: 0200510
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $70,325
• Composite: 41.38/100
• National rank: #3484
• State rank: #5 of 21 in AK

Livability — Skwentna

• Score: 41/100
• State rank: #303
• US rank: #27117

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Skwentna, AK

Population outlook (Matanuska-Susitna County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 126,730 people
• By 2030: 139,641 · +10.2%
• By 2040: 165,122 · +30.3%
• By 2050: 189,697 · +49.7%
• By 2075: 249,959 · +97.2%
• By 2100: 288,077 · +127.3%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-14 Listed $50,000 AKMLS