3 Bed 2 Bath Single Section Plan · Lockhart, TX 78644

$49,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured · 356 Days on market

Poor condition ↓ 9% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the serene charm of Silent Valley, just moments away from the sizzling heart of downtown Lockhart, famed as the 'Barbecue Capital of Texas'. Nestled within the esteemed Lockhart Independent School District, our community offers the perfect blend of tranquility and connectivity. Only 30 miles from bustling Austin, relish in vibrant entertainment, culinary delights, and breathtaking outdoor adventures. Ideal for all ages, enjoy amenities like a playground and picnic area, basketball court, and pet-friendly grounds. Come experience the rural allure with urban conveniences. Schedule your private tour today and unlock the door to your new home!

Key facts

• Pet-friendly grounds
• Basketball court
• Listed 356 days

Tags

• PLAYGROUND AND PICNIC AREA
• BASKETBALL COURT
• PET-FRIENDLY GROUNDS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $916 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 28.3% vs local median 3.0% in Lockhart — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#535 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Lockhart ISD (town): math 27% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #657 of 826 in TX (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 452 active listings in the ZIP; 20 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 529 units permitted in Caldwell County in 2024 (6 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Caldwell County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 356 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $8k (14%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 356 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 28.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 78.71%
• DSCR: 4.50
• GRM: 2.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 78.8%
• Equity multiple: 4.60×
• Total profit: $50,308
• Equity at exit: $7,440

10-year hold

• IRR: 82.3%
• Equity multiple: 9.52×
• Total profit: $119,067
• Equity at exit: $4,314

Cash invested: $13,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 78644

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 2.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,597 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$62 /mo · $748/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$335
• Net cashflow: $916

Break-even live

Break-even rent $437

Max offer price $49,900

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,475
• Closing costs: $1,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 20 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
150 Tonkawa Trl Unit 150 Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1216	$1,499	$1.23	43d	1	0.11mi
606 Guadalimar St Lockhart, TX	4.0	2.0	1036	$1,700	$1.64	43d	1	0.55mi
1100 Monte Vista Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,850	$1.60	17d	1	0.57mi
1309 Monte Vista Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1349	$1,550	$1.15	43d	1	0.71mi
329 Flores St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	1116	$1,500	$1.34	43d	1	0.73mi
1320 Wilson St Unit 236 Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	853	$759	$0.89	43d	1	0.78mi
518 Laredo St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	720	$1,050	$1.46	43d	1	0.80mi
1015 Fir Ln Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	11d	1	0.84mi
1015 Fir Ln Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	900	$1,100	$1.22	4d	1	0.84mi
728 W San Antonio St Unit 730 A Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	944	$1,000	$1.06	4d	1	0.89mi
728 W San Antonio St Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.0	944	$1,125	$1.19	4d	1	0.89mi
115 S Frio St Unit H Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.5	959	$1,125	$1.17	43d	1	0.94mi
115 S Frio St Unit A Lockhart, TX	2.0	1.5	959	$1,125	$1.17	4d	1	0.94mi
100 N Brazos St Lockhart, TX	3.0	1.0	1299	$1,600	$1.23	23d	1	1.11mi
117 Quail Cv Unit A Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1250	$1,575	$1.26	17d	1	1.23mi
331 N Richland Dr Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,800	$1.41	43d	1	1.31mi
1702 Miller Ter Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1253	$1,895	$1.51	43d	1	1.34mi
413 Abbey Ln Lockhart, TX	3.0	2.0	1297	$1,750	$1.35	23d	1	1.40mi
903 E Live Oak St Unit A Lockhart, TX	3.0	1.0	800	$1,300	$1.62	43d	1	1.41mi
903 E Live Oak St Unit B Lockhart, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,450	$1.21	43d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $49,900 Active 356 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $49,900 Active 355 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $49,900 Active 354 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $49,900 Active 353 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $49,900 Active 351 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $52,900 Active 347 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $52,900 Active 346 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $52,900 Active 345 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $52,900 Active 342 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $52,900 Active 341 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $52,900 Active 340 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $52,900 Active 339 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $52,900 Active 338 DOM
14. 2026-04-09
    status Active 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Discover the serene charm of Silent Valley, just moments away from the sizzling heart of downtown Lockhart, famed as the 'Barbecue Capital of Texas'. Nestled within the esteemed Lockhart Independent School District, our community offers the perfect blend of tranquility and connectivity. Only 30 miles from bustling Austin, relish in vibrant entertainment, culinary delights, and breathtaking outdoor adventures. Ideal for all ages, enjoy amenities like a playground and picnic area, basketball court, and pet-friendly grounds. Come experience the rural allure with urban conveniences. Schedule your private tour today and unlock the door to your new home!

15. 2026-04-09
    price $52,900 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Discover the serene charm of Silent Valley, just moments away from the sizzling heart of downtown Lockhart, famed as the 'Barbecue Capital of Texas'. Nestled within the esteemed Lockhart Independent School District, our community offers the perfect blend of tranquility and connectivity. Only 30 miles from bustling Austin, relish in vibrant entertainment, culinary delights, and breathtaking outdoor adventures. Ideal for all ages, enjoy amenities like a playground and picnic area, basketball court, and pet-friendly grounds. Come experience the rural allure with urban conveniences. Schedule your private tour today and unlock the door to your new home!

16. 2026-02-26
    historical 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Discover the serene charm of Silent Valley, just moments away from the sizzling heart of downtown Lockhart, famed as the 'Barbecue Capital of Texas'. Nestled within the esteemed Lockhart Independent School District, our community offers the perfect blend of tranquility and connectivity. Only 30 miles from bustling Austin, relish in vibrant entertainment, culinary delights, and breathtaking outdoor adventures. Ideal for all ages, enjoy amenities like a playground and picnic area, basketball court, and pet-friendly grounds. Come experience the rural allure with urban conveniences. Schedule your private tour today and unlock the door to your new home!

17. 2025-11-21
    price $55,900 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Discover the serene charm of Silent Valley, just moments away from the sizzling heart of downtown Lockhart, famed as the 'Barbecue Capital of Texas'. Nestled within the esteemed Lockhart Independent School District, our community offers the perfect blend of tranquility and connectivity. Only 30 miles from bustling Austin, relish in vibrant entertainment, culinary delights, and breathtaking outdoor adventures. Ideal for all ages, enjoy amenities like a playground and picnic area, basketball court, and pet-friendly grounds. Come experience the rural allure with urban conveniences. Schedule your private tour today and unlock the door to your new home!

18. 2025-05-15
    listed $57,900 Active 656-char remark

    Show marketing remark (656 chars)

    Discover the serene charm of Silent Valley, just moments away from the sizzling heart of downtown Lockhart, famed as the 'Barbecue Capital of Texas'. Nestled within the esteemed Lockhart Independent School District, our community offers the perfect blend of tranquility and connectivity. Only 30 miles from bustling Austin, relish in vibrant entertainment, culinary delights, and breathtaking outdoor adventures. Ideal for all ages, enjoy amenities like a playground and picnic area, basketball court, and pet-friendly grounds. Come experience the rural allure with urban conveniences. Schedule your private tour today and unlock the door to your new home!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,795
• − Property taxes: −$748
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,533
• − Management: −$1,533
• − Depreciation: −$1,452
• Taxable income: $10,849
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,604
• After-tax cash flow: $8,394/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and updates to its exterior and interior to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major unknown — No visible condition to assess

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior painting and landscaping — Improves curb appeal and resale value
• Both interior painting and minor repairs — Enhances interior aesthetics and rental appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
unknown · No visible condition to assess	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 1 items		$15,000–50,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior painting and landscaping — Improves curb appeal and resale value ↑
• Both interior painting and minor repairs — Enhances interior aesthetics and rental appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockhart ISD
• NCES district ID: 4827870
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,868
• Composite: 24.44/100
• National rank: #7674
• State rank: #657 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lockhart

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #535
• US rank: #10453

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lockhart, TX
• County: Caldwell County · 25,195 people
• City population: 22,348
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• Population (ZIP): 22,348
• Household income: $74,709
• Rent vs Own: 25.1% rent · 74.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 324.0

Population outlook (Caldwell County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,557 people
• By 2030: 49,673 · +6.7%
• By 2040: 55,827 · +19.9%
• By 2050: 61,832 · +32.8%
• By 2075: 77,212 · +65.8%
• By 2100: 89,225 · +91.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 52% White 39% Two or more races 23% Black 4% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 45% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 67% English-only · Spanish 32%

Political lean MEDSL · Caldwell

• 2024 margin: R (+14.4) · D 42.2% · R 56.6% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -6.0pp · 2024: -14.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.4 2020: R+9.1 2016: R+15.8 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -99.62%
• Current HPI: 239.7906
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-8.6% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Relisted — Zillow
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $52,900 Zillow
• 2026-02-26 Delisted — Zillow
• 2025-11-21 Price Changed $55,900 Zillow
• 2025-05-15 Listed $57,900 Zillow