12366 Copperwood Dr · Foley, AL 36535

$264,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,945 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 39 Days on market

Built 2008 7,753 sqft lot $136/sqft · 12% below area Est $302k · 12% under $26/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover comfortable, upscale living in this beautifully upgraded 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home nestled in Copperwood—a secluded, peaceful neighborhood, perfectly situated with quick access to both Fairhope and Gulf Shores. This spacious home spans over 1,900 square feet and boasts premium features rarely found in similarly priced new construction. Enjoy modern elegance with granite countertops, an oversized primary suite complete with tray ceilings, a dual vanity in the ensuite bath, and a covered patio ideal for relaxation or entertaining. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this home your dream with modern upgrades and an ideal location. Schedule your private viewing today! Seller will entertain all offers and consider offering closing credits. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

Key facts

• Upgraded home
• Dual vanity
• Covered patio

Tags

• UPGRADED HOME
• SECLUDED NEIGHBORHOOD
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• OVERSIZED PRIMARY SUITE
• DUAL VANITY
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $265k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $228 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $230k (13.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $230k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 4.0% in Foley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#241 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A-, crime B; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Baldwin County (rural): math 33% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #18 of 129 in AL (top 14%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 875 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 3,883 units permitted in Baldwin County in 2024 (481 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Baldwin County population projected at +42% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($257k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $15k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $200k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $229,751 (13.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.69%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $301,626
• List price: $264,900
• Delta: -12.18%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12366 Copperwood Dr	0.00mi	4/2.5	1,945 (0%)	0mo	$240,000	$123	100
345 Hartenstein Rd	0.52mi	4/2.0	1,915 (-2%)	18mo	$347,000	$181	56
349 Hartenstein Rd	0.53mi	4/2.0	2,072 (+6%)	8mo	$282,500	$136	56
309 Hartenstein Rd	0.46mi	4/2.0	2,047 (+5%)	16mo	$292,000	$143	54
12433 Copperwood Dr	0.08mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,678 (-14%)	17mo	$245,000	$146	52
230 Landing Dr	0.51mi	4/2.0	2,047 (+5%)	23mo	$312,000	$152	46
321 Hartenstein Rd	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,755 (-10%)	13mo	$305,000	$174	44
11808 Venice Blvd	0.52mi	4/2.0	2,189 (+12%)	12mo	$477,500	$218	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.58×
• Total profit: $-31,215
• Equity at exit: $39,497

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-19,814
• Equity at exit: $22,904

Cash invested: $74,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36535

• Home prices YoY: -24.9%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 875
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,298 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,389
• Tax from tax record: −$61 /mo · $734/yr
• Insurance: −$110
• HOA: −$26
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$482
• Net cashflow: $228

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,008

Max offer price $264,900

Occupancy floor 85%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $66,225
• Closing costs: $7,947
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
13634 Logan Pl , AL	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,895	$1.48	21d	1	1.29mi
13691 Logan Pl , AL	4.0	2.0	1417	$1,995	$1.41	21d	1	1.35mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $26 · $312/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-05-16
   status Active 817-char remark

   Show marketing remark (817 chars)

   Discover comfortable, upscale living in this beautifully upgraded 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home nestled in Copperwood—a secluded, peaceful neighborhood, perfectly situated with quick access to both Fairhope and Gulf Shores. This spacious home spans over 1,900 square feet and boasts premium features rarely found in similarly priced new construction. Enjoy modern elegance with granite countertops, an oversized primary suite complete with tray ceilings, a dual vanity in the ensuite bath, and a covered patio ideal for relaxation or entertaining. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this home your dream with modern upgrades and an ideal location. Schedule your private viewing today! Seller will entertain all offers and consider offering closing credits. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

2. 2026-05-14
   price $264,900 817-char remark

   Show marketing remark (817 chars)

   Discover comfortable, upscale living in this beautifully upgraded 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home nestled in Copperwood—a secluded, peaceful neighborhood, perfectly situated with quick access to both Fairhope and Gulf Shores. This spacious home spans over 1,900 square feet and boasts premium features rarely found in similarly priced new construction. Enjoy modern elegance with granite countertops, an oversized primary suite complete with tray ceilings, a dual vanity in the ensuite bath, and a covered patio ideal for relaxation or entertaining. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this home your dream with modern upgrades and an ideal location. Schedule your private viewing today! Seller will entertain all offers and consider offering closing credits. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

3. 2026-04-30
   price $269,900 817-char remark

   Show marketing remark (817 chars)

   Discover comfortable, upscale living in this beautifully upgraded 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home nestled in Copperwood—a secluded, peaceful neighborhood, perfectly situated with quick access to both Fairhope and Gulf Shores. This spacious home spans over 1,900 square feet and boasts premium features rarely found in similarly priced new construction. Enjoy modern elegance with granite countertops, an oversized primary suite complete with tray ceilings, a dual vanity in the ensuite bath, and a covered patio ideal for relaxation or entertaining. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this home your dream with modern upgrades and an ideal location. Schedule your private viewing today! Seller will entertain all offers and consider offering closing credits. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

4. 2026-04-14
   listed $279,900 Active 817-char remark

   Show marketing remark (817 chars)

   Discover comfortable, upscale living in this beautifully upgraded 4-bedroom, 2.5-bath home nestled in Copperwood—a secluded, peaceful neighborhood, perfectly situated with quick access to both Fairhope and Gulf Shores. This spacious home spans over 1,900 square feet and boasts premium features rarely found in similarly priced new construction. Enjoy modern elegance with granite countertops, an oversized primary suite complete with tray ceilings, a dual vanity in the ensuite bath, and a covered patio ideal for relaxation or entertaining. Don’t miss the opportunity to make this home your dream with modern upgrades and an ideal location. Schedule your private viewing today! Seller will entertain all offers and consider offering closing credits. Buyer to verify all information during due diligence.

5. 2026-03-12
   historical
6. 2026-02-12
   historical
7. 2025-02-05
   historical $2,500
8. 2025-01-21
   price $2,500
9. 2025-01-09
   price $2,600
10. 2025-01-03
    price $2,700
11. 2024-12-24
    price $2,900
12. 2024-12-20
    listed $3,200
13. 2024-11-02
    price $284,900
14. 2024-10-16
    price $299,900
15. 2024-10-07
    price $324,900
16. 2024-09-17
    status Active
17. 2024-09-08
    status Pending
18. 2024-07-06
    listed $329,900 Active
19. 2020-10-08
    soldstatus $200,000
20. 2020-10-07
    soldstatus $200,000
21. 2020-07-22
    listed $209,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $734 · $61/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,086 · $91/mo
• Expected delta: +$352/yr (+$29/mo · 48.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,570
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,839
• − Property taxes: −$734
• − Insurance: −$1,324
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,206
• − Management: −$2,206
• − HOA: −$312
• − Depreciation: −$7,706
• Taxable loss: −$1,756
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$421
• After-tax cash flow: $3,162/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baldwin County
• NCES district ID: 0100270
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -26.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $50,677
• Composite: 38.61/100
• National rank: #4157
• State rank: #18 of 129 in AL

Livability — Foley

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #241
• US rank: #17616

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime B Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Baldwin County · 181,514 people
• City population: 40,628
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• Population (ZIP): 40,628
• Household income: $66,714
• Rent vs Own: 22.6% rent · 77.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 803.0

Population outlook (Baldwin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,264 people
• By 2030: 270,315 · +8.9%
• By 2040: 312,967 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 352,262 · +41.9%
• By 2075: 438,841 · +76.8%
• By 2100: 487,736 · +96.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (78%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 78% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 7% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baldwin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.2) · D 20.5% · R 78.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.7pp toward R · 2008: -51.5pp · 2024: -58.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.2 2020: R+53.8 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+55.8 2008: R+51.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.82%
• Current HPI: 262.2796
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• Metro: Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+26.2% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Relisted — BCAR
• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $264,900 BCAR
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $269,900 BCAR
• 2026-04-14 Listed $279,900 BCAR
• 2026-03-12 Delisted — BCAR
• 2026-02-12 Coming Soon — BCAR
• 2025-02-05 Rental Removed $2,500 BCAR
• 2025-01-21 Price Changed $2,500 BCAR
• 2025-01-09 Price Changed $2,600 BCAR
• 2025-01-03 Price Changed $2,700 BCAR
• 2024-12-24 Price Changed $2,900 BCAR
• 2024-12-20 Listed for Rent $3,200 BCAR
• 2024-11-02 Price Changed $284,900 BCAR
• 2024-10-16 Price Changed $299,900 BCAR
• 2024-10-07 Price Changed $324,900 BCAR
• 2024-09-17 Relisted — BCAR
• 2024-09-08 Pending — BCAR
• 2024-07-06 Listed $329,900 BCAR
• 2020-10-08 Sold (Public Records) $200,000 Public Records
• 2020-10-07 Sold (MLS) $200,000 BCAR
• 2020-07-22 Listed $209,900 BCAR

Property tax history

+6.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $734 · -3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.