5515 27th St W · Bayshore Gardens, FL 34207

$269,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,576 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1973 0.33 ac lot Est $386k · 30% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.8/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great house that just needs a little love. .. . 3 bedroom 2 and 1/2 bath, 2 car garage all situated on corner lot. House is mostly ceramic tile, large 2 car garage, dedicated laudry room with additional half bath. House is being sold as is and owners will not participate in any repairs. Roof, AC and water heater were all replaced in 2017.. Quiet dead end street, great schools and close to our beautiful beaches.

Key facts

• 0.33 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1973

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $269k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $265k (1.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $265k (1.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 4.7% in Bayshore Gardens — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#72 in FL, #1,180 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute C-, employment F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Bayshore Elementary School (math 51% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,345 of 2,144 statewide, top 64%, 701 students, 72% FRL); Bayshore High School (math 17% / reading 26%, grade F, #546 of 667 statewide, top 82%, 1,435 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 68% FRL vs 51% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 32% at this address vs 52% district-wide (-20 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Manatee average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,646/mo this rent would consume 71% of the median local household income ($45k/yr) (locally 1474% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $269k implies a 259% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $264,567 (1.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.98% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.35%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $386,120
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5704 34th Ct W	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,525 (-3%)	1mo	$260,000	$170	63
5807 24th St W	0.40mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,468 (-7%)	4mo	$412,500	$281	62
3012 52nd Avenue Dr W	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,670 (+6%)	4mo	$290,000	$174	60
4459 Sunset Garden St	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,671 (+6%)	2mo	$409,999	$245	56
4455 Sunset Garden St	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,486 (-6%)	3mo	$394,999	$266	55
4451 Sunset Garden St	0.71mi	2/2.0	1,486 (-6%)	3mo	$384,999	$259	55
3210 60th Ave W	0.59mi	2/2.0	1,443 (-8%)	5mo	$267,000	$185	54
5823 22nd St W	0.50mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,408 (-11%)	2mo	$415,000	$295	52
5812 22nd St W	0.46mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,403 (-11%)	2mo	$305,000	$217	52
5323 22nd St W	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,365 (-13%)	2mo	$245,000	$179	52
4447 Sunset Garden St	0.71mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,671 (+6%)	3mo	$409,999	$245	50
5992 Coral Way	0.67mi	2/2.0	1,402 (-11%)	1mo	$185,000	$132	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-22,051
• Equity at exit: $40,109

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-11,729
• Equity at exit: $23,258

Cash invested: $75,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34207

• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 361
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,646 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,411
• Tax from tax record: −$106 /mo · $1,270/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$556
• Net cashflow: $462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,061

Max offer price $269,000

Occupancy floor 78%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $614	-5% $538	+0% $462	+5% $385	+10% $309
Rent	-10% $253	-5% $357	+0% $462	+5% $566	+10% $671
Rate	-1.0pp $597	-0.5pp $530	base $462	+0.5pp $392	+1.0pp $321

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,250
• Closing costs: $8,070
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5400 26th St W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	902	$1,651	$1.83	24d	1	0.20mi
5607 20th St W Unit 5607 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1988	$1,900	$0.96	24d	1	0.45mi
3401 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1293	$3,300	$2.55	4d	3	0.45mi
3411 57th Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1326	$2,100	$1.58	24d	1	0.48mi
5400 34th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1404	$2,500	$1.78	24d	3	0.48mi
5400 34th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1244	$2,675	$2.15	3d	2	0.48mi
3506 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,800	$2.94	4d	2	0.50mi
5820 21st St W Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1116	$1,995	$1.79	4d	1	0.52mi
3510 54th Dr W #101 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1795	$5,000	$2.79	4d	1	0.52mi
3510 54th Dr W #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1795	$5,500	$3.06	4d	1	0.52mi
3510 54th Dr W #102 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1981	$5,900	$2.98	16d	1	0.52mi
5103 29th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1258	$2,600	$2.07	24d	1	0.55mi
3604 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1114	$4,050	$3.64	4d	3	0.57mi
3605 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1166	$3,738	$3.21	4d	2	0.58mi
2713 60th Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$2,000	$1.86	24d	1	0.58mi
3605 57th Avenue Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1454	$2,100	$1.44	4d	1	0.59mi
3427 59th Ave W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.5	1330	$2,150	$1.62	16d	1	0.60mi
3702 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0–3.0	1327	$3,300	$2.49	4d	2	0.60mi
3701 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1215	$3,500	$2.88	4d	2	0.61mi
3705 54th Dr W #201 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1650	$5,500	$3.33	16d	1	0.64mi
3705 54th Dr W #103 Bradenton, FL	3.0	3.0	1650	$4,700	$2.85	16d	1	0.64mi
3803 54th Dr W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1215	$3,600	$2.96	2d	1	0.66mi
5016 22nd St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1512	$1,699	$1.12	12d	1	0.70mi
5016 22nd St W Unit 5016 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1512	$1,699	$1.12	24d	1	0.70mi
5016 22nd St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,600	$1.14	4d	1	0.70mi
3424 51st Avenue Cir W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1538	$2,100	$1.37	4d	1	0.74mi
6033 34th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	996	$1,500	$1.51	24d	2	0.75mi
4906 25th St W #101 Bradenton, FL	2.0	1.5	1070	$1,550	$1.45	24d	1	0.77mi
3441 51st Avenue Cir W Unit 213 Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1823	$3,900	$2.14	24d	1	0.79mi
6101 34th St W Bradenton, FL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1444	$1,890	$1.31	3d	2	0.80mi
133 Wild Palm Dr #133 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1408	$2,350	$1.67	24d	1	0.81mi
146 Wild Palm Dr #146 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1500	$2,500	$1.67	24d	1	0.81mi
132 Wild Palm Dr #132 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$3,400	$2.61	24d	1	0.81mi
6101 34th St W Unit 27C Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1547	$2,250	$1.45	20d	1	0.84mi
5125 39th St W Unit 1545695P Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1593	$4,526	$2.84	15d	1	0.84mi
142 Pineneedle Dr Unit 142U Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1408	$2,395	$1.70	24d	1	0.90mi
183 Pineneedle Dr Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1304	$1,800	$1.38	24d	1	0.90mi
4916 18th St W Unit B Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1170	$1,650	$1.41	24d	1	0.90mi
4358 Mirabella Cir Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1823	$2,950	$1.62	24d	1	0.91mi
2415 Holyoke Ave Bradenton, FL	3.0	2.0	1134	$2,599	$2.29	24d	1	0.91mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-02
   remarks 417-char remark
2. 2026-06-02
   listed $269,000 Pending 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,270 · $106/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,233 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: +$963/yr (+$80/mo · 75.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 29 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,748
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,068
• − Property taxes: −$1,270
• − Insurance: −$1,345
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,540
• − Management: −$2,540
• − Depreciation: −$7,825
• Taxable income: $1,160
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$278
• After-tax cash flow: $5,260/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Bayshore Gardens

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #72
• US rank: #1180

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute C- Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bayshore Gardens, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 33,840
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 34,081
• Household income: $45,010
• Rent vs Own: 38.8% rent · 61.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1474.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 13% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12% Puerto Rican 4% Cuban 3% Dominican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 22% Other Indo-European 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -305.32%
• Current HPI: 369.9899
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.50%
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+258.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-08 Listed $269,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-04-05 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,270 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.