8305 Furgason Trl · Montmorency, MI 49709

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,596 sqft · SingleFamily · 52 Days on market

5,000 sqft lot $103/sqft · 10% below area Est $183k · 10% under $104/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.3/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Escape to the heart of Canada Creek Ranch, where timeless Up North charm meets refined comfort. This inviting 3-bedroom, 2-bath home showcases soaring cathedral ceilings and dramatic floor-to-ceiling windows, filling the living space with natural light and peaceful woodland views. A cozy fireside setting creates the perfect place to unwind or gather with guests. Thoughtfully designed for both everyday living and weekend retreats, the interior offers warmth and character throughout. Outside, a spacious yard invites you to relax and enjoy the quiet beauty of the surrounding landscape--your ideal northern escape awaits. As a CCR property owner, you'll enjoy exclusive access to 13,000 acres of

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Cathedral ceilings
• Private lakes

Tags

• CATHEDRAL CEILINGS
• FLOOR TO CEILING WINDOWS
• SPACIOUS YARD
• EXCLUSIVE ACCESS TO WILDERNESS
• PRIVATE LAKES
• GROOMED NATURE TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Above grade finished area approximately 1,164 sq ft
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee of $1,252.10 (about $104.34/month)

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; 1 garage space
• Security: Smoke detectors
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Partial basement
• Exterior features: On waterfront (Lake Geneva); Private road frontage; Gravel road; Private maintained road; 50 x 100 lot dimensions; Spa/Hot Tub

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven/Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fans; Has cooling
• Interior features: Vaulted ceilings; Blinds; Fireplace; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer (stacked); Laundry on main level; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-54 ($-646/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $155k (5.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (17.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (17.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Atlanta Community Schools (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #546 of 760 in MI (top 72%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 56 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montmorency County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$45k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $52k; list at $165k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $136,713 (17.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.83% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.40%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $182,530
• List price: $165,000
• Delta: -9.60%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 7 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.87×
• Total profit: $86,450
• Equity at exit: $148,645

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.7%
• Equity multiple: 6.57×
• Total profit: $257,312
• Equity at exit: $320,559

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49709

• Home prices YoY: 13.5%
• Active inventory: 56
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,367 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,150/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$104
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$287
• Net cashflow: $-54

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,435

Max offer price $155,487

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $104 · $1,248/yr

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $165,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $165,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $165,000 Active 37 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $165,000 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $165,000 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $165,000 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-04-24
    listed $165,000 Active 1315-char remark
17. 2025-09-03
    price $165,000
18. 2001-11-16
    soldstatus $52,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,150 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,846 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$695/yr (+$58/mo · 60.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,406
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,150
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,312
• − Management: −$1,312
• − HOA: −$1,248
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$3,485
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$836
• After-tax cash flow: $190/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Atlanta Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2603570
• Math proficiency: 25% ▲ 5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 10.00%
• Median HH income: $35,004
• Composite: 27.59/100
• National rank: #12347
• State rank: #546 of 760 in MI

Livability — Montmorency

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Canada Creek Ranch, MI
• Population (ZIP): 3,524

Population outlook (Montmorency County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,233 people
• By 2030: 7,575 · -8.0%
• By 2040: 6,202 · -24.7%
• By 2050: 5,081 · -38.3%
• By 2075: 3,119 · -62.1%
• By 2100: 1,923 · -76.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 6%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Other Asian/Pacific 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montmorency

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.3) · D 26.6% · R 72.0% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.2pp toward R · 2008: -8.2pp · 2024: -45.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.3 2020: R+43.4 2016: R+44.2 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+8.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 42.88%
• Current HPI: 361.3052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+217.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $165,000 WWMLS
• 2025-09-03 Price Changed $165,000 WWMLS
• 2001-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $52,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+17.4%/yr

Latest (2023): $1,150 · +71.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.