15329 Little Valley Rd #75 · Alta Sierra, CA 95949

$59,950

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 780 sqft · Manufactured public records · 52 Days on market

Built 2006 3,106 sqft lot Est $81k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

ONE-YEAR HOME WARRANTY!! Clean and Super Cozy 2006 model in an All Age Park. Recently updated with New flooring, Interior Paint, Water Heater. Enjoy Vaulted Living Room Ceilings, Cherrywood Kitchen Cabinets. Large Primary Bedroom, with Guest Bedroom and 2 Full Baths, plus Laundry area with Storage. Just a short walk to the office and fun Clubhouse with Pool and Game Room. Conveniently located near Hwy 49 with all the conveniences for your shopping and dining. Ask about Financing. This is a sweet Move-in ready opportunity.

Key facts

• 3,106 sq ft lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 2006

Tags

• VAULTED LIVING ROOM CEILINGS
• CHERRYWOOD KITCHEN CABINETS
• LAUNDRY AREA WITH STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease amount: $985
• HOA & community: No homeowners association; Property is in a land-lease park (land lease applies)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking for 2 vehicles; No garage
• Utilities: Propane available; Internet available; Public water; Private sewer; Electric service: Other
• Home design: Manufactured in park (single wide); Expression by Fleetwood; Updated/remodeled; Built in 2006; Wood skirting
• Construction: Composition roof; Wood construction elements
• Exterior features: Porch; Storage shed(s); Close to clubhouse

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing refrigerator; Hood over range; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Propane heating; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Updated/remodeled interior; Dual-pane full windows; Cathedral/vaulted living room; Dining and living room combined; Synthetic kitchen countertops; Porch with steps and railing; Storage area
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry located in an interior closet; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $60k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $60k).
• Recommended offer: $58k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.5% vs local median 3.4% in Alta Sierra — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#662 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools D+, amenities F.
• Nevada Joint Union High (town): math 25% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #201 of 517 in CA (top 39%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 252 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 215 units permitted in Nevada County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $414 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nevada County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $17k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($58k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,151 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.30% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 86.48%
• DSCR: 4.85
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $81,120
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15329 Little Valley Rd #75	0.00mi	2/1.0	780 (0%)	0mo	$52,000	$67	100
10114 Forest Springs Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0	720 (-8%)	19mo	$75,000	$104	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 87.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.01×
• Total profit: $67,327
• Equity at exit: $8,939

10-year hold

• IRR: 90.1%
• Equity multiple: 10.40×
• Total profit: $157,809
• Equity at exit: $5,183

Cash invested: $16,786 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95949

• Home prices YoY: -34.7%
• Active inventory: 252
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,979 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$314
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $168/yr
• Insurance: −$25
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $1,210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $447

Max offer price $59,950

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,988
• Closing costs: $1,798
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $168 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $456 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: +$288/yr (+$24/mo · 171.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 9/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 31 unhealthy d/yr today · 40 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,743
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,358
• − Property taxes: −$168
• − Insurance: −$300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,899
• − Management: −$1,899
• − Depreciation: −$1,744
• Taxable income: $14,375
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,450
• After-tax cash flow: $11,067/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nevada Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0626880
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $57,336
• Composite: 37.53/100
• National rank: #4393
• State rank: #201 of 517 in CA

Livability — Alta Sierra

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #662
• US rank: #20497

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nevada County · 85,339 people
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 20,552
• Household income: $98,181
• Rent vs Own: 12.9% rent · 87.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Nevada County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 98,490 people
• By 2030: 97,295 · -1.2%
• By 2040: 92,041 · -6.5%
• By 2050: 85,164 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 68,436 · -30.5%
• By 2100: 49,536 · -49.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Nevada

• 2024 margin: D (+12.2) · D 54.4% · R 42.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: 12.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.2 2020: D+14.8 2016: D+4.5 2012: R+4.7 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -122.41%
• Current HPI: 230.2373
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Truckee-Grass Valley, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $168 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.