40 Lucille Dr · Cheektowaga, NY 14225

$160,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,131 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 132 Days on market

Built 1952 5,662 sqft lot $141/sqft · 42% below area Est $275k · 42% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.2/30.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• DSCR +4.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Bring your vision and creativity to this affordable home with great potential in the desirable Maryvale School District. This property needs work but offers a solid layout and plenty of space to make it your own. Ideal for investors or handy buyers looking to build sweat equity. Being sold as-is with no repairs made by the seller. Don’t miss your chance to own a home in a convenient location close to shopping, dining, and major highways. Priced to sell- imagine the possibilities!

Key facts

• Plenty of space
• Solid layout
• Close to dining

Tags

• SOLID LAYOUT
• PLENTY OF SPACE
• CONVENIENT LOCATION
• CLOSE TO SHOPPING
• CLOSE TO DINING
• CLOSE TO MAJOR HIGHWAYS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $160k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-4 ($-48/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $159k (0.4% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $160k).
• Recommended offer: $141k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.3% vs local median 3.8% in Cheektowaga — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#54 in NY, #811 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-.
• Cheektowaga-Maryvale Union Free School District (urban): math 67% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #154 of 590 in NY (top 26%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Market conditions: 207 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 11d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 132 days — a 12% lower offer ($141k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $73k; list at $160k implies a 119% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $140,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 132 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.11%
• DSCR: 1.00
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $275,113
• List price: $160,000
• Delta: -41.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
34 Lucille Dr	0.01mi	3/1.0	1,131 (0%)	5mo	$167,000	$148	95
82 Ontario Dr	0.35mi	3/1.0	1,167 (+3%)	5mo	$170,000	$146	74
27 Federal Ave	0.28mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,060 (-6%)	4mo	$219,000	$207	68
20 Martinvale Rd	0.39mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-4%)	5mo	$240,000	$222	65
788 Beach Rd	0.36mi	3/1.0	1,284 (+14%)	1mo	$285,000	$222	60
393 Beach Rd	0.39mi	3/1.0	1,284 (+14%)	1mo	$248,000	$193	59
149 S Huxley Dr	0.66mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,140 (+1%)	1mo	$241,500	$212	58
77 Balbach Dr	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,290 (+14%)	4mo	$250,000	$194	56
92 Yeager Dr	0.51mi	3/1.0	1,002 (-11%)	4mo	$200,000	$200	54
20 Colden Ct	0.43mi	3/1.5	1,273 (+13%)	5mo	$179,000	$141	53
120 Beale Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,046 (-8%)	2mo	$245,000	$234	51
106 Gardenvale Dr	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,279 (+13%)	6mo	$271,900	$213	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-26,022
• Equity at exit: $23,857

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.50×
• Total profit: $-22,344
• Equity at exit: $13,834

Cash invested: $44,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14225

• Home prices YoY: -27.3%
• Active inventory: 207
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,667 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$839
• Tax from tax record: −$415 /mo · $4,985/yr
• Insurance: −$67
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$350
• Net cashflow: $-4

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,672

Max offer price $159,300

Occupancy floor 95%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $40,000
• Closing costs: $4,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
291 Fonda Dr Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	850	$1,400	$1.65	44d	1	0.58mi
22 Matthew Ln Unit Left Cheektowaga, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,100	$0.92	44d	1	0.76mi
1328 Cleveland Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1020	$2,200	$2.16	2d	1	0.85mi
1035 Beach Rd Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	900	$1,300	$1.44	44d	1	0.85mi
455-495 Wehrle Dr Cheektowaga, NY	2.0	1.0	1012	$1,450	$1.43	2d	1	0.87mi
419 Cherokee Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	880	$1,800	$2.05	2d	1	1.09mi
2935 Genesee St Unit Up Buffalo, NY	2.0	1.0	1400	$1,400	$1.00	10d	1	1.11mi
44 Aurora Dr Buffalo, NY	3.0	1.0	1272	$3,300	$2.59	2d	1	1.19mi
202 S Union Rd Unit 8 Amherst, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	24d	1	1.36mi
202 S Union Rd Unit 8 Amherst, NY	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,500	$1.25	3d	1	1.36mi
1175 George Urban Blvd Buffalo, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	725	$1,365	$1.88	44d	1	1.44mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending 490-char remark

   Show marketing remark (490 chars)

   Bring your vision and creativity to this affordable home with great potential in the desirable Maryvale School District. This property needs work but offers a solid layout and plenty of space to make it your own. Ideal for investors or handy buyers looking to build sweat equity. Being sold as-is with no repairs made by the seller. Don’t miss your chance to own a home in a convenient location close to shopping, dining, and major highways. Priced to sell- imagine the possibilities!

2. 2026-02-17
   status Active 490-char remark

   Show marketing remark (490 chars)

   Bring your vision and creativity to this affordable home with great potential in the desirable Maryvale School District. This property needs work but offers a solid layout and plenty of space to make it your own. Ideal for investors or handy buyers looking to build sweat equity. Being sold as-is with no repairs made by the seller. Don’t miss your chance to own a home in a convenient location close to shopping, dining, and major highways. Priced to sell- imagine the possibilities!

3. 2026-01-25
   price $160,000 490-char remark

   Show marketing remark (490 chars)

   Bring your vision and creativity to this affordable home with great potential in the desirable Maryvale School District. This property needs work but offers a solid layout and plenty of space to make it your own. Ideal for investors or handy buyers looking to build sweat equity. Being sold as-is with no repairs made by the seller. Don’t miss your chance to own a home in a convenient location close to shopping, dining, and major highways. Priced to sell- imagine the possibilities!

4. 2026-01-08
   price $169,500 490-char remark

   Show marketing remark (490 chars)

   Bring your vision and creativity to this affordable home with great potential in the desirable Maryvale School District. This property needs work but offers a solid layout and plenty of space to make it your own. Ideal for investors or handy buyers looking to build sweat equity. Being sold as-is with no repairs made by the seller. Don’t miss your chance to own a home in a convenient location close to shopping, dining, and major highways. Priced to sell- imagine the possibilities!

5. 2025-12-10
   listed $174,500 Active 490-char remark

   Show marketing remark (490 chars)

   Bring your vision and creativity to this affordable home with great potential in the desirable Maryvale School District. This property needs work but offers a solid layout and plenty of space to make it your own. Ideal for investors or handy buyers looking to build sweat equity. Being sold as-is with no repairs made by the seller. Don’t miss your chance to own a home in a convenient location close to shopping, dining, and major highways. Priced to sell- imagine the possibilities!

6. 2003-06-09
   soldstatus $73,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,985 · $415/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,985 · $415/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,007
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,962
• − Property taxes: −$4,985
• − Insurance: −$800
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,601
• − Management: −$1,601
• − Depreciation: −$4,655
• Taxable loss: −$2,596
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$623
• After-tax cash flow: $575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cheektowaga-Maryvale Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618600
• Math proficiency: 67% ▲ 11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▲ 23.00%
• Median HH income: $46,537
• Composite: 59.02/100
• National rank: #960
• State rank: #154 of 590 in NY

Livability — Cheektowaga

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #811

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime C- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cheektowaga, NY
• County: Erie County · 714,559 people
• City population: 55,470
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 33,620
• Household income: $67,237
• Rent vs Own: 27.1% rent · 72.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 991.0

Population outlook (Erie County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 933,037 people
• By 2030: 935,181 · +0.2%
• By 2040: 928,531 · -0.5%
• By 2050: 905,725 · -2.9%
• By 2075: 834,037 · -10.6%
• By 2100: 708,033 · -24.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Black 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 21% Lithuanian 3% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Erie

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.7) · D 54.8% · R 45.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.9pp toward R · 2008: 17.5pp · 2024: 9.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.7 2020: D+14.7 2016: D+4.8 2012: D+15.6 2008: D+17.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.26%
• Current HPI: 320.6248
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+119.2% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2026-02-17 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $160,000 WNYREIS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $169,500 WNYREIS
• 2025-12-10 Listed $174,500 WNYREIS
• 2003-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $73,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,985 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.