Empress Plan · South Lebanon, OH 45039

$420,990

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 3,198 sqft · SingleFamily · 261 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Cash flow +4.5/30.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +0.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Picture yourself in the spacious and flexible Empress floorplan - a 3,200 sq. ft. home with five bedrooms, multiple living areas, and endless options to make it your own. Designed for those who love to entertain, The Empress offers both elegance and everyday comfort. Step inside to a welcoming living room that can double as a home office or sitting area. A powder room and formal dining room make hosting holidays easy and convenient. The open-concept great room flows seamlessly into the hearth room, creating the perfect space for gatherings. Add a sunroom off the nook for even more room to entertain. The well-appointed kitchen features abundant cabinetry, a pantry, and a nearby mudroom for easy organization. Upstairs, you'll find five bedrooms - each with its own walk-in closet - plus a convenient second-floor laundry. The loft offers a versatile space for movie nights or playtime and can be expanded by removing a bedroom. Unwind in the luxurious primary suite with dual walk-in closets and an optional step ceiling. Personalize the bath with a deluxe garden tub, tiled shower, or 60" shower option.

Key facts

• Flexible floor plan
• Living room
• Powder room

Tags

• FLEXIBLE FLOOR PLAN
• EXTERIOR ELEVATION OPTIONS
• LIVING ROOM
• POWDER ROOM
• DINING ROOM
• GREAT ROOM

🏗️ New construction. The $420,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $554,032.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $421k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-17k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $346k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $303k (28.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $303k (28.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#279 in OH, #4,589 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Little Miami Local (rural): math 67% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #140 of 656 in OH (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 126 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $59k of equity ($4k loan paydown + $55k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$95k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 261 days — a 12% lower offer ($370k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $302,516 (28.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 261 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.55% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.18%
• Cash-on-cash: -11.13%
• DSCR: 0.50
• GRM: 15.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $554,032
• List price: $420,990
• Delta: -24.01%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6849 Gray Wolf Dr	0.57mi	5/4.0	3,184 (-0%)	10mo	$645,000	$203	58
1422 Shawnee Run Dr	0.64mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,142 (-2%)	8mo	$500,000	$159	52
1430 Tecumseh Dr	0.45mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,776 (-13%)	2mo	$552,000	$199	50
1790 Amberwood Way	0.63mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,916 (-9%)	2mo	$565,000	$194	47
601 Eagles Nest Ct	0.65mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,876 (-10%)	7mo	$365,000	$127	42
6841 Gray Wolf Dr	0.57mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,352 (+5%)	20mo	$576,500	$172	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.45×
• Total profit: $224,193
• Equity at exit: $499,116

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.94×
• Total profit: $766,407
• Equity at exit: $1,076,362

Cash invested: $155,129 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45039

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 11.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,025 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,905
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$693 /mo · $8,310/yr
• Insurance: −$231
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$635
• Net cashflow: $-1,439

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,847

Max offer price $345,819

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,056	-5% $-1,247	+0% $-1,439	+5% $-1,630	+10% $-1,822
Rent	-10% $-1,678	-5% $-1,558	+0% $-1,439	+5% $-1,319	+10% $-1,200
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,160	-0.5pp $-1,298	base $-1,439	+0.5pp $-1,582	+1.0pp $-1,729

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $138,508
• Closing costs: $16,621
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $420,990 Active 261 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $420,990 Active 260 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $420,990 Active 259 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $420,990 Active 258 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $420,990 Active 256 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $420,990 Active 252 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $420,990 Active 251 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $420,990 Active 250 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $420,990 Active 246 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $420,990 Active 245 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $420,990 Active 244 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $420,990 Active 243 DOM
13. 2025-10-01
    listed $420,990 Active 1117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1117 chars)

    Picture yourself in the spacious and flexible Empress floorplan - a 3,200 sq. ft. home with five bedrooms, multiple living areas, and endless options to make it your own. Designed for those who love to entertain, The Empress offers both elegance and everyday comfort. Step inside to a welcoming living room that can double as a home office or sitting area. A powder room and formal dining room make hosting holidays easy and convenient. The open-concept great room flows seamlessly into the hearth room, creating the perfect space for gatherings. Add a sunroom off the nook for even more room to entertain. The well-appointed kitchen features abundant cabinetry, a pantry, and a nearby mudroom for easy organization. Upstairs, you'll find five bedrooms - each with its own walk-in closet - plus a convenient second-floor laundry. The loft offers a versatile space for movie nights or playtime and can be expanded by removing a bedroom. Unwind in the luxurious primary suite with dual walk-in closets and an optional step ceiling. Personalize the bath with a deluxe garden tub, tiled shower, or 60" shower option.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,302
• − Mortgage interest: −$31,034
• − Property taxes: −$8,310
• − Insurance: −$2,770
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,904
• − Management: −$2,904
• − Depreciation: −$16,117
• Taxable loss: −$27,739
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$6,657
• After-tax cash flow: $-10,610/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This Empress floorplan home is in good condition with a good condition score of 80. It has a cosmetic rehab level and requires minimal repairs or maintenance. The highest-ROI updates to increase its value include painting the exterior, upgrading the kitchen appliances, and adding smart home features.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Painting the exterior in a more vibrant color — A fresh coat of paint can enhance curb appeal and make the home stand out.
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and increase the home's value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Painting the exterior in a more vibrant color — A fresh coat of paint can enhance curb appeal and make the home stand out. ↑
• Resale Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Modern appliances can attract more buyers and increase the home's value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more convenient and energy-efficient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Miami Local
• NCES district ID: 3905044
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $74,949
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #844
• State rank: #140 of 656 in OH

Livability — South Lebanon

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #279
• US rank: #4589

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warren County · 196,906 people
• City population: 7,053
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 28,335
• Household income: $108,794
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,603 people
• By 2030: 259,345 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 277,666 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 289,599 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 311,681 · +25.4%
• By 2100: 302,738 · +21.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.8% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: -36.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+30.8 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.63%
• Current HPI: 568.09
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.42%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-10-01 Listed $420,990 Zillow