Mesquite Plan · Palm Bay, FL 32909

$326,900

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,867 sqft · SingleFamily · 228 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +7.4/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to The Mesquite - Spacious, Stylish, and Perfect for Family Living Discover The Mesquite in Melbourne, a brand-new 4-bedroom, 2-bath home designed with an open-concept floor plan that invites endless possibilities. The spacious great room seamlessly connects the dining area and kitchen, creating a warm and inviting space for everyday living and entertaining. The guest bedrooms are thoughtfully placed on the opposite side of the home, offering privacy and comfort. Meanwhile, the master suite is a true retreat, featuring a large bathroom and a generous walk-in closet to elevate your living experience. Ideal for growing families or anyone seeking a perfectly livable home, The Mesquite

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 228 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $326,900

Exterior

• Home design: Mesquite plan (new construction plan); Located at Mesquite Plan, Palm Bay, FL 32909

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Living area approximately 1867

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $327k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-415 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $267k (18.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (28.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, health & safety D-.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: W. Melbourne Elementary School For Science (math 88% / reading 86%, grade A+, #24 of 2,144 statewide, top 1%, 549 students, 18% FRL); Southwest Middle School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #373 of 571 statewide, top 66%, 920 students, 58% FRL); Palm Bay Magnet Senior High School (math 25% / reading 37%, grade F, #429 of 667 statewide, top 65%, 1,486 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 1123 active listings in the ZIP; 22 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$56k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 228 days — a 12% lower offer ($288k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,432 (28.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 228 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.77%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.44%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.67×
• Total profit: $153,225
• Equity at exit: $294,497

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.19×
• Total profit: $475,383
• Equity at exit: $635,095

Cash invested: $91,532 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32909

• Home prices YoY: 6.0%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 1123
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,334 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,714
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$409 /mo · $4,904/yr
• Insurance: −$136
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,860

Max offer price $266,846

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-189	-5% $-302	+0% $-415	+5% $-528	+10% $-641
Rent	-10% $-599	-5% $-507	+0% $-415	+5% $-323	+10% $-231
Rate	-1.0pp $-250	-0.5pp $-332	base $-415	+0.5pp $-500	+1.0pp $-586

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,725
• Closing costs: $9,807
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 22 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
907 Algardi St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1943	$2,330	$1.20	25d	1	0.11mi
84 San Filippo Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$2,044	$1.94	16d	30	0.52mi
743 Andrew St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1252	$1,895	$1.51	25d	1	0.52mi
1205 Jaslo St SE Palm Bay, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	992	$2,245	$2.26	16d	8	0.61mi
721 Taluga Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1556	$1,800	$1.16	25d	1	0.73mi
896 Talmadge Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1263	$1,900	$1.50	16d	1	0.82mi
885 Talmadge Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1787	$2,300	$1.29	23d	1	0.83mi
829 Tampa Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1303	$1,740	$1.34	25d	1	0.92mi
490 Hatcher St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,150	$1.17	23d	1	0.96mi
710 Avalon St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1378	$1,995	$1.45	25d	1	1.03mi
272 Aquarius Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1650	$1,995	$1.21	25d	1	1.11mi
431 Brantley St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1326	$2,050	$1.55	20d	1	1.18mi
320 Algiers Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1306	$1,825	$1.40	25d	1	1.19mi
647 Airoso Rd SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	2365	$2,900	$1.23	15d	1	1.20mi
1255 Wadsworth St SE Unit 1255 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	3.0	1747	$2,350	$1.35	20d	1	1.21mi
309 Cactus St SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1846	$2,195	$1.19	16d	1	1.22mi
1129 Colonial Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	3.0	2008	$2,500	$1.25	20d	1	1.26mi
334 Bordeaux Ave NE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	2083	$2,250	$1.08	16d	1	1.29mi
194 Holiday Park Blvd NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,695	$1.21	25d	1	1.33mi
857 Buchanan Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1257	$1,950	$1.55	25d	1	1.36mi
1210 Vandalia Ave SE Palm Bay, FL	4.0	2.0	1833	$2,050	$1.12	16d	1	1.44mi
171 Okeefe St SE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1288	$1,855	$1.44	16d	1	1.46mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $326,900 Active 228 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $326,900 Active 225 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $326,900 Active 224 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $326,900 Active 223 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $326,900 Active 222 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $326,900 Active 220 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $326,900 Active 217 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $326,900 Active 215 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $326,900 Active 214 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $326,900 Active 211 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $326,900 Active 210 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $326,900 Active 209 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $326,900 Active 208 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $326,900 Active 207 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,012
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,311
• − Property taxes: −$4,904
• − Insurance: −$1,634
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,241
• − Management: −$2,241
• − Depreciation: −$9,510
• Taxable loss: −$10,829
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,599
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,381/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 41,804
• Household income: $79,977
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 697.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Black 21% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 16% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 8% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 9% French/Haitian/Cajun 4% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 18.81%
• Current HPI: 330.8595
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B