977 S Matilda St · Florence, AZ 85132

$280,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,670 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 57 Days on market

Built 2000 8,295 sqft lot $168/sqft · at area comps Est $284k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +8.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• 1% rule +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Freshly renovated 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on a spacious 8,000 sqft lot, perfect for those who value space and comfort. Key renovations include modern updates to the kitchen and bathrooms. This home also features a cozy bonus family room! Located near the heart of Florence, where driving, walking, or biking are all reasonable choices. The large, grass backyard comes with a newly installed irrigation system, ready for your finishing touches to create your dream oasis. Enjoy the peace of living on a street with NO through traffic and NO HOA. A short walk to Florence K-8 or the high school. The paint and floors come with transferrable warranties, ensuring your investment is protected.

Key facts

• Large grass backyard
• 8,295 sq ft lot
• Parking

Tags

• MODERN UPDATES TO THE KITCHEN
• COZY BONUS FAMILY ROOM
• LARGE GRASS BACKYARD
• SHORT WALK TO FLORENCE K-8
• SHORT WALK TO HIGH SCHOOL
• TRANSFERRABLE WARRANTIES

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($449/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (23.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (23.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in Florence — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#187 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Florence Unified School District (4437) (rural): math 16% / reading 24% proficiency, ranked #178 of 249 in AZ (top 72%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.3%/yr); 714 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($79k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 57 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 20y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $280k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,425 (23.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 57 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 24% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.76% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.45%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.57%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $284,385
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -1.54%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
504 W Bunker Hill St	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,569 (-6%)	1mo	$289,990	$185	63
1387 S Vista Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,569 (-6%)	4mo	$307,000	$196	62
523 W Bunker Hill St	0.60mi	4/2.0	1,569 (-6%)	1mo	$292,990	$187	62
1407 S Vista Ave	0.53mi	4/2.0	1,787 (+7%)	3mo	$319,990	$179	61
515 W Bunker Hill St	0.59mi	4/2.0	1,787 (+7%)	1mo	$298,990	$167	60
482 W Bunker Hill St	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,787 (+7%)	6mo	$297,990	$167	58
624 W Van Haren St	0.61mi	4/2.0	1,801 (+8%)	1mo	$274,990	$153	58
607 W Freedom St	0.64mi	4/2.0	1,825 (+9%)	3mo	$339,990	$186	52
492 W Bunker Hill St	0.56mi	4/2.0	1,450 (-13%)	1mo	$284,990	$197	51
549 W Freedom St	0.59mi	4/2.5	1,854 (+11%)	4mo	$329,990	$178	49
516 W Bunker Hill St	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,450 (-13%)	3mo	$269,990	$186	49
493 W Bunker Hill St	0.57mi	4/2.0	1,450 (-13%)	5mo	$279,990	$193	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-46,787
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.33×
• Total profit: $-52,734
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85132

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 1.3%
• Active inventory: 714
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,134 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $764/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,087

Max offer price $280,000

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
479 W Geib Ave Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1154	$1,595	$1.38	21d	1	0.64mi
144 S Mulberry St Florence, AZ	3.0	2.0	1415	$1,495	$1.06	43d	1	0.77mi

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $280,000 Active 57 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $280,000 Active 56 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 55 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 54 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $280,000 Active 52 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $280,000 Active 51 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $284,990 Active 48 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $284,990 Active 47 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   pricedays on market $284,990 Active 46 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,990 Active 43 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,990 Active 42 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,990 Active 41 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,990 Active 40 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,990 Active 39 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    price $299,990 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Freshly renovated 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on a spacious 8,000 sqft lot, perfect for those who value space and comfort. Key renovations include modern updates to the kitchen and bathrooms. This home also features a cozy bonus family room! Located near the heart of Florence, where driving, walking, or biking are all reasonable choices. The large, grass backyard comes with a newly installed irrigation system, ready for your finishing touches to create your dream oasis. Enjoy the peace of living on a street with NO through traffic and NO HOA. A short walk to Florence K-8 or the high school. The paint and floors come with transferrable warranties, ensuring your investment is protected.

16. 2026-04-29
    price $305,000 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Freshly renovated 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on a spacious 8,000 sqft lot, perfect for those who value space and comfort. Key renovations include modern updates to the kitchen and bathrooms. This home also features a cozy bonus family room! Located near the heart of Florence, where driving, walking, or biking are all reasonable choices. The large, grass backyard comes with a newly installed irrigation system, ready for your finishing touches to create your dream oasis. Enjoy the peace of living on a street with NO through traffic and NO HOA. A short walk to Florence K-8 or the high school. The paint and floors come with transferrable warranties, ensuring your investment is protected.

17. 2026-04-22
    listed $310,000 Active 692-char remark

    Show marketing remark (692 chars)

    Freshly renovated 4-bedroom, 2-bathroom home on a spacious 8,000 sqft lot, perfect for those who value space and comfort. Key renovations include modern updates to the kitchen and bathrooms. This home also features a cozy bonus family room! Located near the heart of Florence, where driving, walking, or biking are all reasonable choices. The large, grass backyard comes with a newly installed irrigation system, ready for your finishing touches to create your dream oasis. Enjoy the peace of living on a street with NO through traffic and NO HOA. A short walk to Florence K-8 or the high school. The paint and floors come with transferrable warranties, ensuring your investment is protected.

18. 2025-02-25
    historical $1,575
19. 2025-02-04
    listed $1,575
20. 2025-01-27
    historical
21. 2025-01-13
    price $291,000
22. 2024-12-18
    listed $294,000 Active
23. 2024-12-12
    price $294,000
24. 2024-08-07
    soldstatus $175,000
25. 2018-02-23
    soldstatus $125,000
26. 2018-02-15
    soldstatus $125,000 Closed
27. 2018-02-05
    status Pending
28. 2018-02-01
    soldstatus $125,000 Closed
29. 2018-01-16
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
30. 2017-12-06
    price $135,000
31. 2017-11-27
    price $138,000
32. 2017-11-07
    status Active
33. 2017-11-06
    historical Under Contract Accepting Backups
34. 2017-11-03
    listed $139,000 Active
35. 2009-11-24
    historical
36. 2009-06-10
    listed $62,000
37. 2009-03-05
    historical
38. 2008-11-10
    listed $89,000
39. 2006-07-28
    soldstatus $140,900
40. 2006-07-25
    soldstatus $140,500
41. 2006-07-20
    historical
42. 2006-06-26
    listed $141,000
43. 1998-06-11
    soldstatus $92,456

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $764 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,848 · $154/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,084/yr (+$90/mo · 141.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,611
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$764
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,049
• − Management: −$2,049
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$4,480
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,075
• After-tax cash flow: $1,524/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Florence Unified School District (4437)
• NCES district ID: 0402920
• Math proficiency: 16% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 24% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $54,426
• Composite: 18.31/100
• National rank: #8950
• State rank: #178 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Florence

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #187
• US rank: #19483

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Florence, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 38,671
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 38,671
• Household income: $79,000
• Rent vs Own: 13.6% rent · 86.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 102.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Hispanic / Latino 28% Two or more races 9% Black 7% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 23%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Portuguese 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.75%
• Current HPI: 233.6644
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.27%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

+224.5% since first listed

29 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $299,990 ARMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $305,000 ARMLS
• 2026-04-22 Listed $310,000 ARMLS
• 2025-02-25 Rental Removed $1,575 RENT.
• 2025-02-04 Listed for Rent $1,575 RENT.
• 2025-01-27 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2025-01-13 Price Changed $291,000 ARMLS
• 2024-12-18 Listed $294,000 ARMLS
• 2024-12-12 Price Changed $294,000 ARMLS
• 2024-08-07 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-23 Sold (Public Records) $125,000 Public Records
• 2018-02-15 Sold (MLS) $125,000 ARMLS
• 2018-02-05 Pending — ARMLS
• 2018-02-01 Sold (MLS) $125,000 ARMLS
• 2018-01-16 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-12-06 Price Changed $135,000 ARMLS
• 2017-11-27 Price Changed $138,000 ARMLS
• 2017-11-07 Relisted — ARMLS
• 2017-11-06 Contingent — ARMLS
• 2017-11-03 Listed $139,000 ARMLS
• 2009-11-24 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2009-06-10 Listed $62,000 ARMLS
• 2009-03-05 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2008-11-10 Listed $89,000 ARMLS
• 2006-07-28 Sold (Public Records) $140,900 Public Records
• 2006-07-25 Sold (MLS) $140,500 ARMLS
• 2006-07-20 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2006-06-26 Listed $141,000 ARMLS
• 1998-06-11 Sold (Public Records) $92,456 Public Records

Property tax history

-1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $764 · +2.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.