27965 Tarpon Ter · Big Pine Key, FL 33042

$337,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 756 sqft · Manufactured public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1986 4,140 sqft lot Est $354k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.3/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.6/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention all investors, this idyllic property offers an excellent income-producing opportunity with nominal liability insurance and property tax costs and an estimated 8% cap rate! This charming and well-maintained Little Torch Key retreat sits on a clean, clear swimming canal! Enjoy excellent paddle boarding, kayaking, and fishing from the convenience of your own back yard. Nestled on a sizable, fenced-in lot, this home boasts a large storage shed for keeping tools and equipment dry and secure, and allows for plenty of open parking and trailer storage. Take advantage of fantastic boating and fishing in the surrounding area with a convenient boat ramp less than a mile away! Inside, the spacious main living area offers high ceilings and loads of natural light. The kitchen comes equipped with ample storage space, new gas range, new microwave, and stainless steel refrigerator. Down the hall, two well-appointed bedrooms and a guest bathroom provide comfortable accommodation for all. A new washer and dryer with additional cabinetry offers added convenience. Located in a peaceful, established neighborhood but just minutes to grocery stores and restaurants in town, this Coral Shores Estates paradise won't last long! Call to schedule a showing today!

Key facts

• Direct access
• Trailer storage
• Storage shed

Tags

• SWIMMING CANAL
• DIRECT ACCESS
• BOAT RAMP
• FENCED LOT
• TRAILER STORAGE
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Rentals allowed with minimum 28-day term; Deed restrictions: none
• Financial info: Financing accepted: Cash, FHA, VA, Conventional; Homestead tax exemption
• HOA & community: No association fees; No first right of refusal; Fee includes: none

Exterior

• Utilities: FKAA water; Municipal sewer (public sewer hookup); Buyer to verify utilities
• Home design: Manufactured single-wide; Built in 1986; Located on Bay/Gulf side; Entry facing Bay/Gulf side
• Construction: Manufactured construction; Single wide; Built in 1986
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Shed; Outdoor shower; Canal view; On waterfront (plugged canal front); Community boat ramp

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Microwave; Refrigerator; Dishwasher not listed
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Window/wall units; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Tile flooring; Ceiling fans; Window/wall air conditioning units
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $338k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $68 ($817/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $333k (1.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $332k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 0.2% in Big Pine Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#597 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Monroe (town): math 50% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #23 of 73 in FL (top 32%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 239 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 332 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (42 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($103k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $36k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Monroe County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $94k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$58k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($332k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 26y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $332,437 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 8.05%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.28%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $353,808
• Comps found: 8

Show comp detail 8 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
27954 Tarpon Ter	0.03mi	2/1.5	735 (-3%)	16mo	$360,500	$490	78
27977 Coral Shores Rd	0.10mi	2/1.0	684 (-10%)	4mo	$320,000	$468	76
27997 Coral Shores Rd	0.10mi	2/1.0	672 (-11%)	4mo	$435,000	$647	73
27983 Snapper Ln	0.05mi	2/1.0	672 (-11%)	7mo	$300,000	$446	73
27883 Coral Shores Rd	0.13mi	2/1.5	720 (-5%)	16mo	$540,000	$750	71
27950 Porgie	0.08mi	2/2.0	840 (+11%)	20mo	$300,000	$357	57
28292 Dorothy Ave	0.72mi	2/2.0	830 (+10%)	3mo	$328,000	$395	44
28131 Helen Ave	0.71mi	2/1.0	856 (+13%)	13mo	$390,000	$456	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.99×
• Total profit: $188,342
• Equity at exit: $304,047

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $551,607
• Equity at exit: $655,688

Cash invested: $94,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33042

• Home prices YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 239
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,332 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,770
• Tax from tax record: −$227 /mo · $2,726/yr
• Insurance: −$141
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$700
• Net cashflow: $68

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,246

Max offer price $337,500

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $259	-5% $164	+0% $68	+5% $-27	+10% $-123
Rent	-10% $-195	-5% $-64	+0% $68	+5% $200	+10% $331
Rate	-1.0pp $238	-0.5pp $154	base $68	+0.5pp $-19	+1.0pp $-108

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $84,375
• Closing costs: $10,125
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $337,500 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $337,500 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $337,500 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $337,500 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $337,500 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $337,500 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $337,500 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $337,500 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $337,500 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $337,500 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $337,500 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $337,500 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $337,500 Active 2 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    remarks 650-char remark
15. 2026-06-02
    listed $337,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,726 · $227/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,801 · $233/mo
• Expected delta: +$75/yr (+$6/mo · 2.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,985
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,905
• − Property taxes: −$2,726
• − Insurance: −$6,806
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,199
• − Management: −$3,199
• − Depreciation: −$9,818
• Taxable loss: −$4,668
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,120
• After-tax cash flow: $1,938/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Monroe
• NCES district ID: 1201320
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $56,955
• Composite: 45.51/100
• National rank: #2608
• State rank: #23 of 73 in FL

Livability — Big Pine Key

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #597
• US rank: #11450

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A- Health & safety F User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 66,185 people
• Metro: Key West, FL
• Population (ZIP): 6,441
• Household income: $103,041
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 146.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,706 people
• By 2030: 96,308 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 106,565 · +17.5%
• By 2050: 116,500 · +28.4%
• By 2075: 141,423 · +55.9%
• By 2100: 151,947 · +67.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 12% Hispanic / Latino 12% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 3% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: R (+18.3) · D 40.5% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.2pp toward R · 2008: 4.9pp · 2024: -18.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.3 2020: R+7.9 2016: R+6.9 2012: D+0.4 2008: D+4.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.11%
• Current HPI: 491.52
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Key West, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+481.9% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $337,500 FLKMLS
• 2024-08-20 Sold (Public Records) $315,000 Public Records
• 2024-08-13 Sold (MLS) $315,000 FLKMLS
• 2024-06-30 Contingent — FLKMLS
• 2024-06-11 Price Changed $299,900 FLKMLS
• 2024-05-04 Price Changed $329,900 FLKMLS
• 2024-04-10 Price Changed $338,900 FLKMLS
• 2024-03-11 Price Changed $348,900 FLKMLS
• 2024-02-06 Price Changed $368,900 FLKMLS
• 2024-01-23 Listed $378,900 FLKMLS
• 2020-05-15 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2020-05-15 Listing Removed — FLKMLS
• 2010-02-09 Sold (Public Records) $75,300 Public Records
• 2010-02-04 Listed $75,250 FLKMLS
• 2010-02-04 Sold (MLS) $75,250 FLKMLS
• 2005-10-04 Listed $235,000 FLKMLS
• 2004-12-07 Listed $315,000 FLKMLS
• 2001-03-28 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2001-03-26 Sold (MLS) $70,000 FLKMLS
• 2000-07-18 Listed $79,000 FLKMLS
• 1997-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,726 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.