2515 E East Avenue I Unit E25 · Lancaster, CA 93535

$49,999

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured public records · 331 Days on market

Built 1967 Est $75k · 33% under ↓ 16% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Perfect for first-time buyers, downsizers, or investors, this charming two-bedroom, one-bath mobile home is priced to sell--don't miss out! It offers comfort, functionality, and value all in one! Don't wait any longer--call us to show you what would be called home sweet home.

Key facts

• Community pool
• Built 1967
• Listed 331 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: APN: 8950-134-025; Unit features indicated as 'YES'
• Financial info: Deposit listed ($3,000)
• HOA & community: Space rent / park fees listed (new space rent $816.48; park deposit $816.48); Park manager: Karin Burgess (phone available)

Exterior

• Utilities: 220V electric; Natural gas
• Home design: Mobile home (manufactured 1967); Located in Desert Palms mobile home park, space E25; All-ages park
• Construction: Metal exterior; Composition shingle roof; Skirted; Manufacture label/number: 255258; Serial: S10026; Trade name: Flamingo
• Exterior features: Chain link fencing; Community pool (mobile home park amenity)

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air (evaporative); Central gas heat (natural gas)
• Interior features: Gas range; Central air (evaporative); Central gas heat

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $50k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($16k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $50k).
• Recommended offer: $44k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 37.9% vs local median 4.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#282 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, amenities B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, crime F.
• Eastside Union Elementary (suburban): math 15% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #1,226 of 1,400 in CA (top 88%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 76% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1169 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($70k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $345 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.1% rent growth), your $14k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 331 days — a 12% lower offer ($44k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (16%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $43,999 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 331 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 37.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 112.96%
• DSCR: 6.03
• GRM: 2.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $74,592
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
45131 28th St E #19	0.38mi	2/1.0	672 (0%)	3mo	$75,000	$112	80
2550 E Ave I #30	0.17mi	2/1.0	720 (+7%)	10mo	$60,000	$83	72
2550 E Avenue I #146	0.17mi	2/1.0	720 (+7%)	14mo	$80,000	$111	69
2550 E Ave I #136	0.26mi	2/1.0	640 (-5%)	16mo	$90,000	$141	67
45415 E 28th St #37	0.33mi	1/1.0 (-1)	640 (-5%)	17mo	$43,000	$67	57

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.14% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 6.01×
• Total profit: $70,112
• Equity at exit: $7,455

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 11.50×
• Total profit: $146,971
• Equity at exit: $4,323

Cash invested: $14,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93535

• Home prices YoY: -24.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.1%
• Active inventory: 1169
• Price-to-rent: 2.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,044 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$262
• Tax from tax record: −$14 /mo · $167/yr
• Insurance: −$21
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$429
• Net cashflow: $1,318

Break-even live

Break-even rent $376

Max offer price $49,999

Occupancy floor 31%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,346	-5% $1,332	+0% $1,318	+5% $1,304	+10% $1,290
Rent	-10% $1,156	-5% $1,237	+0% $1,318	+5% $1,399	+10% $1,479
Rate	-1.0pp $1,343	-0.5pp $1,331	base $1,318	+0.5pp $1,305	+1.0pp $1,292

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $12,500
• Closing costs: $1,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
45446 17th St E Lancaster, CA	1.0	1.0	425	$1,450	$3.41	5d	1	0.83mi
44236 20th St E Lancaster, CA	2.0	1.0–2.5	900	$1,712	$1.90	1d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $49,999 Pending 331 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   remarks 276-char remark
3. 2026-06-01
   days on market $49,999 Active 330 DOM
4. 2026-05-31
   days on market $49,999 Active 329 DOM
5. 2025-12-14
   price $49,999
6. 2025-07-14
   status Active
7. 2025-07-14
   status Pending
8. 2025-07-05
   listed $59,575 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $167 · $14/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $380 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$213/yr (+$18/mo · 127.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 8/10 Severe 16 unhealthy d/yr today · 21 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,528
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,801
• − Property taxes: −$167
• − Insurance: −$250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,962
• − Management: −$1,962
• − Depreciation: −$1,455
• Taxable income: $15,931
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,824
• After-tax cash flow: $11,990/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Eastside Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0611910
• Math proficiency: 15% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $44,840
• Composite: 21.43/100
• National rank: #13636
• State rank: #1226 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #282
• US rank: #9504

Category grades

Amenities B+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lancaster, CA
• County: Los Angeles County · 9,444,647 people
• City population: 194,251
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• Population (ZIP): 79,409
• Household income: $70,360
• Rent vs Own: 33.6% rent · 66.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 2494.0

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 55% Two or more races 25% Black 21% White 17% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada
• Languages at home: 60% English-only · Spanish 37% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -144.13%
• Current HPI: 449.4494
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.14%
• Metro: Los Angeles-Long Beach-Anaheim, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-16.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-14 Price Changed $49,999 AVMLS
• 2025-07-14 Relisted — AVMLS
• 2025-07-14 Pending — AVMLS
• 2025-07-05 Listed $59,575 AVMLS

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $167 · +8.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.